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July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Well, one month of summer is in the books.  Went down pretty benign for most.  Temps averaged slightly below normal for the month.  Many cashed in on some timely rains while others did not.  We are now in the midst of the hottest stretch thus far with what might end up being a 5 to 6 day heatwave for some.   

 

MonthTDeptNRCC.png.e94097e4cd174d91f4bcd0d613fa8d70.png

MonthPDeptNRCC.png.fc8287a60945bde0d7208178a2c6bd18.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Courtesy of SPC web source...

...the question is whether this BD pulses SW and then later this afternoon ... pivots into N-S orientation over eastern zones..  The large scale evolution implies it would struggle to do so... With building heights through the period and onward, that imparts increasing DVM/suppression over the region..which would tend to impart slowing frontal displacements among other aspects.  The meso arguments suggest it would .. because despite those large scaled mechanics, torrid run-away heating over near-by interior SNE and southern NH would tend to draw the boundary down do to mass-balancing/diurnal circulation.  I could almost see this boundary take a position that nearly collocates with that 1016mb pg line...oriented similarly to how this is over east/central Massachusetts ...or circa 4-pm...  Interesting albeit tedious study...

image.png.164c9e31eca8630d777bf53495794479.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So, we missed 90 by 9: by an average of 4 to 7 F at most sites, both official and backyard ...  The index finger rule of needing to succeed that temperature by then, to make a hundo forecast confident .. thus fails. 

Meanwhile, the GFS machine numbers are till insisting 99-102 -type numbers at FIT, ASH...BED... HFD... etc.. I rather like the NAM numbers for these locations.  I mean, if we wanna employ the index finger rule, that is..  Seems the gist of just adding 10 (and there is another one, "10 after 10:" ) would put up middle 90s type numbers. 

So, where ever not afflicted by wind cut around to the E later on... I'm thinking more along the lines of those latter numbers. 

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dendrite

dendrite

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So, we missed 90 by 9: by an average of 4 to 7 F at most sites, both official and backyard ...  The index finger rule of needing to succeed that temperature by then, to make a hundo forecast confident .. thus fails. 

Meanwhile, the GFS machine numbers are till insisting 99-102 -type numbers at FIT, ASH...BED... HFD... etc.. I rather like the NAM numbers for these locations.  I mean, if we wanna employ the index finger rule, that is..  Seems the gist of just adding 10 (and there is another one, "10 after 10:" ) would put up 95 to 98 type numbers. 

So, where ever not afflicted by wind cut around to the E later on... I'm thinking more along the lines of those numbers. 

Looked back on 7/4/95. Many didn’t hit 90 until after 10 or 11.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nh/concord/KBOS/date/1995-7-14

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nh/concord/KCON/date/1995-7-14

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dendrite

dendrite

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Posted

Although I do remember some debris that morning with full blast sunshine midday through afternoon. I didn’t bother looking at 7/22/11 since we had a trough go through shifting the wind strongly out of the west which gave a big late morning jump.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looked back on 7/4/95. Many didn’t hit 90 until after 10 or 11.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nh/concord/KBOS/date/1995-7-14

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nh/concord/KCON/date/1995-7-14

Yeah... we can certainly still do it - the "fail" is/was intended to mean, relative to the statement "9 by 9:"  - that's all...

Although, we should add ... the statement 'tends' to work because it's just easier to add 10 clicks to a 9 am temp, than it is to an 11 am temp, just because those two additional hours give some additional latitude to dink around with BS cloud strudels and diffused/iffy BD bs and think up any other abbreviation at least excuse imaginable...

At a baser level... for some reason heat is just extra-double top secret probation fragile at our latitudes.  Even though we share the same latitudes as say N IA or so... The climate of our heat is an exercise in what goes wrong more so than not. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Nah...too many clouds...  reconvene in 22 years when the next historic ridge takes a stab at it... 

I'm being snarky, of course -

But I'll tell ya, this whole week is idiosyncratically challenged from what I'm observing in the models. 

I'm noticing (the 50,000 foot perspective) the synoptic evolution, also consistent in the individual operational runs, are exhausting the 850 mb hot layer through tomorrow, in which time ... we have fanning cirrus plumes and ghostly BD's and other turds to contend with, These are remarkably proficient at off-setting the fragility of high end heat ... and we go from these two days, right into a ballooning 500mb DAM ridge that is not taking in a fresh supply of SW ejected EML/850 plateau heat. It's like muting at little at both ends, if for different reasons..

Don't get wrong.  +18 to 20 C at 850 is nothing to shake a stick at, but... it's a waste for what could be, should we have that 'edgier' heat involved...  What's the saying?  'For all the words of voice or pen, none can be sadder than these, what might have been'   That is...if we covet the novelty and experience of all this.

So after today...if we settle back into low ... maybe mid 90s by day ...that sort of pedestrian heat (albeit multiple days) really wouldn't shock me.  Now ... it is possible if not plausible the 850s are being unduly cooled ... But as is, the acme of the ridge is centered roughly 12z Wednesday...exceeding 594 DAM at BUF-Logan latitudes, and it's a whopping 18 to 20 C at 850?  That's the atmosphere NOT maxing on potential... Someone's going to read this, and comprehend it the wrong way .. but to be clear with futile results ... it's a hot time of it..  I'm talking specifically about the historic nature (or not).

These things have to be timed right...so perhaps this isn't our time?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Never gets old watching those satellite loops.

I know!  :)

It's like, 'anything that swirls ...weee'

The best is out in the Plains where tropopause pokers hold onto the setting sun for dear life.. casting their long shadows like 'Night On Bald Mountain'  ...

You know what would be cool..?  Is if they got the technology such that as night's inevitability takes its toll on those animated loops, if the day light faded as the lightning became visible.  I mean, it's got to be in there ... in real time. But, even with these HD loops, the flashes are in between the frame-rates - at least I think that's it.  hm

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Hmmm...  well, hell - perhaps literally..

all three wunder ground obs within a mile of me are 90 or 91 as of 10: am ...  

We seemed to evaporated some of the cirrus plumage in the Mass Pike and Rt 2 regions over the last hour and a half, but...there is additional banded interference 'cast over southern VT/NH ... Other than that, perhaps Brian's reference to late bloomer heat examples may carry some weight for this afternoon? 

Hey Jerry, Boston officially clocks a heat wave out of this saga -

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Wow... 92/78 and 93/75 ....  within a mile of me, and I gotta say... Stepping out onto the porch exiting the lingering overnight relative cool of the house is like walking into a wall of heat provided by the a-hole of dumb truck...  Holy smokes...

So, doffing my hat and eating some crow... my snark from earlier is not being rewarded - because my towns HI right now are at excessive category heat. It's a matter of sustaining it for a few hours...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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tell you what... If the eastern coastal zones can hang onto this west wind... there's going to be a bit of an 'impact bust' there.. Because I'm not at 90 here in Middlesex CO...it's IN the 90s, with DPs of 72 to 76 everywhere...  That air mass compressing eastward while only gaining radiation is an interesting prospect for heat sensitive interests...

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weathafella

weathafella

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Logan just flipped E... fwiw - though lightly

And yet still 90.  If another W push comes 100 can be realized.  Not too often you see onshore winds and still 90.  Why?

1.  It’s a zephyr and nothing beyond that.

2.  850s are hot and basically every influence outside of 10 m winds is hot.

3.  I want it.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And yet still 90.  If another W push comes 100 can be realized.  Not too often you see onshore winds and still 90.  Why?

1.  It’s a zephyr and nothing beyond that.

2.  850s are hot and basically every influence outside of 10 m winds is hot.

3.  I want it.

 

Ah yes... the, "I want it" partial derivative in the Navier/Stokes equations...  ha...

It's also possible, that temperature and the wind ob were virtually simultaneous and any cooling has yet to register from the flip...  Just sayn'

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weathafella

weathafella

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah yes... the, "I want it" partial derivative in the Navier/Stokes equations...  ha...

It's also possible, that temperature and the wind ob were virtually simultaneous and any cooling has yet to register from the flip...  Just sayn'

It flipped an hour ago.  10:25.  Still close to 90.  Oscillating between 88 and 90.  Remember when NAM had it struggling to the low 70s.  You wisely called bs.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Also, winds are 140 which suggests to me they’re already backing back to offshore.

True...

PSM (fwiw-) is 88/70something with a west wind.  In this situation... if Boston/Logan's wind direction were because of a boundary... it DEFINITELY would mean that PSM was also behind said boundary. Since it is not... I'm pretty well confident that Logan's flip is just local breeze nuance associated with rapid thermal generation near-by land/sea interface.  It may mean that the wind does wobble back and forth for a couple hours?  Buut, hm.. I would think as we near the mid and upper 90s here in the interior (all but a slam dunk!) that is only going to intensify that local/meso circulation tendency and they may grab 10 kters at some point... 

There is another possibility ... in this "micro science" ... If the wind here in the interior picks up WNW (which it's very light and variable at this time) due to more mixing/turning over... that may establish some west to east push... 

So there are some moving parts to consider... in order:

1 ... should the lower Maine coastal BD not move into the Bay region like NWS mentionned...  then,

       a ... the wind may do what it did the last three days at the coast, which is flip west late... could go from say ... a settle back temperature to 85 (while it's a hundo over the bridge in Cambridge), to rush into the high 90s roughly 6 pm...

       b ... if we do no get the mixing/turn-over momentum going in the interior, the affairs at Logan may remain wobbly .. in which case the temp may spike and settle and spike and settle; essentially while the breeze boundary oscillates back and forth across the obs sit. But again, I think the tendency in this scenario would be for the boundary to end up on the west side of the city eventually.

2 ... should the lower Maine coastal BD move into the Bay region like NWS mentioned, ... a pulse of more dramatic cooling would sweep in.. .perhaps 70s... at some point later on in the afternoon...

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