July Discobs Thread

[Stormpc]

39 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This hot weather has been great practice for my new life in south Texas. I am now about 3 weeks away from saying goodbye forever to everything I have loved for the past 50 years - to spend the rest of my life in a very very HOT place with no snow ever again and very little rain. In short, I am going to Hell. LOL.

Thats it? You are really leaving for good? That's hard to fathom.

[yoda]

47 minutes ago, Jebman said:

This hot weather has been great practice for my new life in south Texas. I am now about 3 weeks away from saying goodbye forever to everything I have loved for the past 50 years - to spend the rest of my life in a very very HOT place with no snow ever again and very little rain. In short, I am going to Hell. LOL.

You're moving to S TX next month?

[JWilliam9830]

It's a warm one out. Still 80 degrees with some scattered 70s in the cooler farm areas.

[MN Transplant]

Haven’t had a drop of rain in a week.  Hope the HRRR is onto something for tonight.  

[high risk]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Haven’t had a drop of rain in a week.  Hope the HRRR is onto something for tonight.  

 

    the HRRR looks really good tonight, especially for the western side of DC.    It's interesting, though, that the HRRRX (which becomes the HRRR next week) is not nearly as excited.  Radar seems to suggest that the operational HRRR is on the right track, but we'll see.....

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, high risk said:

the HRRR looks really good tonight, especially for the western side of DC.    It's interesting, though, that the HRRRX (which becomes the HRRR next week) is not nearly as excited.  Radar seems to suggest that the operational HRRR is on the right track, but we'll see.....

I've found the hrrr to be pretty accurate this spring and early summer, at least in my vicinity. I'm assuming the hrrrx has better overall verification scores?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I've found the hrrr to be pretty accurate this spring and early summer, at least in my vicinity. I'm assuming the hrrrx has better overall verification scores?

    yes, but the HRRR has a high bias for precip/reflectivity.   The HRRRX brings that down, but in the process of eliminating some of the false alarms, it occasionally loses a "real" event.

  

[nw baltimore wx]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

    yes, but the HRRR has a high bias for precip/reflectivity.   The HRRRX brings that down, but in the process of eliminating some of the false alarms, it occasionally loses a "real" event.

Thanks, and interesting. I have rarely clicked on the hrrrx so I don't have a layman's opinion, but here's to hoping that the non-x version scores a coupe tonight.

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Thats it? You are really leaving for good? That's hard to fathom.

It is hard to fathom. Unless I find someone to stay with for a while. You are going to get a Nino this winter, and Washington DC will have a 72 inch snow winter, in 2018-2019. Get your shovels ready lol

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

You're moving to S TX next month?

Yes. The reason is simple.

My beloved Dad passed at 930pm on June 13 this year. He was 81. My mom, who resides in Texas, has been up here, we are cleaning up frantically, we will sell my home in Dale City where Dad and I lived together for over 20 years and then we will DRIVE to Buda Texas which is 1350 miles to the SSW of Dale City. Thus begins an entirely new life for yours truly. I am not sure what I will do with the rest of my life, lol. Find a freezer to live in, probably lol.

I will still be wishing heavy snows on the Mid Atlantic though. The Reaper will be out of work forever. You guys are going to get BURIED ALIVE this winter by extreme snows. This is a scientific forecast. My proof?

I will be gone, 1300 miles SSW. Washington is going to get totally destroyed by snow this winter. Bank on this.

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

You're moving to S TX next month?

It looks that way, it will probably happen right around the last week of July or the first week of August.

[yoda]

36 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Yes. The reason is simple.

My beloved Dad passed at 930pm on June 13 this year. He was 81. My mom, who resides in Texas, has been up here, we are cleaning up frantically, we will sell my home in Dale City where Dad and I lived together for over 20 years and then we will DRIVE to Buda Texas which is 1350 miles to the SSW of Dale City. Thus begins an entirely new life for yours truly. I am not sure what I will do with the rest of my life, lol. Find a freezer to live in, probably lol.

I will still be wishing heavy snows on the Mid Atlantic though. The Reaper will be out of work forever. You guys are going to get BURIED ALIVE this winter by extreme snows. This is a scientific forecast. My proof?

I will be gone, 1300 miles SSW. Washington is going to get totally destroyed by snow this winter. Bank on this.

I'm really sorry to hear that. My thoughts and prayers are with you @Jebman.  

I will make sure to take Jebwalks in your honor when we get pounded with snow this winter

[yoda]

Lol both 02z and 03z HRRR says what heavy rain... or really, what rain?  Besides a few showers that is

[EastCoast NPZ]

My condolences, jeb.   Wish the best for you.

[Rtd208]

43 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol both 02z and 03z HRRR says what heavy rain... or really, what rain?  Besides a few showers that is

And its next run will probably be a complete deluge. What a joke.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

And its next run will probably be a complete deluge. What a joke.

Sounds like the HRRRX wins... per high risk it becomes the new HRRR next week (posted above on this page)

[BlizzardNole]

On 7/4/2018 at 5:02 PM, BlizzardNole said:

Where's NPZ?!  Winchester at 4:35 PM was 70 degrees with winds at 38G44.  Radar looks real nice over Stephens City.

I would love some of that rain but I ain't holding my breath, not even for Friday.  I can see isolated t-storms today and tomorrow focused out west, then Friday forming just east and south.

 

Well I nailed that one.  One cell passed two miles south of me yesterday with nothing but sprinkles here.  And sure enough, LWX is saying the best rain today is in central VA to southern MD.  The Central MD Desert is in full effect now.  No rain for weeks and wont' get any today.  At least I'l have a cool weekend for all the extensive watering to be done.

[WxUSAF]

Heard thunder around 3am, but no  rain.

[smokeybandit]

You sure that wasn't some jackwagon getting rid of the rest of his fireworks?

[BlizzardNole]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Yes. The reason is simple.

My beloved Dad passed at 930pm on June 13 this year. He was 81. My mom, who resides in Texas, has been up here, we are cleaning up frantically, we will sell my home in Dale City where Dad and I lived together for over 20 years and then we will DRIVE to Buda Texas which is 1350 miles to the SSW of Dale City. Thus begins an entirely new life for yours truly. I am not sure what I will do with the rest of my life, lol. Find a freezer to live in, probably lol.

I will still be wishing heavy snows on the Mid Atlantic though. The Reaper will be out of work forever. You guys are going to get BURIED ALIVE this winter by extreme snows. This is a scientific forecast. My proof?

I will be gone, 1300 miles SSW. Washington is going to get totally destroyed by snow this winter. Bank on this.

Sorry for your loss.

I know a guy from here that retired to that area a couple years ago, and he loves it.  He is also sort of between Austin and San Antonio which are really cool cities.  Oh and you'll be in the path of the total solar eclipse  on 4/8/2024!  You'll have to take a short flight to Denver in winter for some awesome skiing.

[smokeybandit]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Yes. The reason is simple.

My beloved Dad passed at 930pm on June 13 this year. He was 81. My mom, who resides in Texas, has been up here, we are cleaning up frantically, we will sell my home in Dale City where Dad and I lived together for over 20 years and then we will DRIVE to Buda Texas which is 1350 miles to the SSW of Dale City. Thus begins an entirely new life for yours truly. I am not sure what I will do with the rest of my life, lol. Find a freezer to live in, probably lol.

I will still be wishing heavy snows on the Mid Atlantic though. The Reaper will be out of work forever. You guys are going to get BURIED ALIVE this winter by extreme snows. This is a scientific forecast. My proof?

I will be gone, 1300 miles SSW. Washington is going to get totally destroyed by snow this winter. Bank on this.

1300 miles.  That'd be one hell of a jebwalk

[dailylurker]

Radar doesn't look promising. Going to be a long dry spell when today fails.

[frd]

36 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Radar doesn't look promising. Going to be a long dry spell when today fails.

Why is there a Flash Flood Watch in NE MD and Northern DE ?  Been the kiss of death lately .   

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Radar doesn't look promising. Going to be a long dry spell when today fails.

Yup.  And my last rain was 0.15 on June 24.  I have yet to see a good thunderstorm this whole season.  I don't want severe - just a good downpour with frequent lightning.  I get out of the desert for a week on the 21st to VA Beach.  I hope it produces one good thunderstorm.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Radar doesn't look promising. Going to be a long dry spell when today fails.

We do some form of this every year now- I got over 17” of rain from May 12 through the first week of June. Now I’ve had basically nothing for weeks, so the garden can have both fungus from all the rain AND be drought stressed simultaneously.

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We do some form of this every year now- I got over 17” of rain from May 12 through the first week of June. Now I’ve had basically nothing for weeks, so the garden can have both fungus from all the rain AND be drought stressed simultaneously.

Same problem in my garden. We suck lol

[Sparky]

I heard thunder rumbling around 3am but nothing to speak of in the rain gauge.

[87storms]

pretty phenomenal bust so far and what a weird flood watch that was.  i'm not even sure we received a sprinkle here.  maybe these renegade showers can do something as the cool push moves through.

[frd]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

pretty phenomenal bust so far and what a weird flood watch that was.  i'm not even sure we received a sprinkle here.  maybe these renegade showers can do something as the cool push moves through.

NWS Mount Holly discussion stated potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch amounts. what model(s) called for that?  I  feel the Mount Holly guys do a  super job by the last 3 calls for heavy rainfall in my area and areas nearby has yielded little if any. I am not talking a small goegraphic area but rather large expanse of area.  As for today surprising with a dew of 77 now and this clash  in air masses coming up I may get hardly anything. Very, very low soil moisture here now. Last 4 weeks missed mostr rain to NE , SE and West.  

[87storms]

1 minute ago, frd said:

NWS Mount Holly discussion stated potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch amounts. what model(s) called for that?  I  feel the Mount Holly guys do a  super job by the last 3 calls for heavy rainfall in my area and areas nearby has yielded little if any. I am not talking a small goegraphic area but rather large expanse of area.  As for today surprising with a dew of 77 now and this clash  in air masses coming up I may get hardly anything. Very, very low soil moisture here now. Last 4 weeks missed mostr rain to NE , SE and West.  

i think hrrr was doing hrrr things last night and showed a blob moving through dc/95.  issuing a flood watch and not receiving much of anything is an underrated bust.  it would be ranked if it was winter.