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July Discobs Thread


George BM

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What model is the 12z HRFEv2 that LWX mentions in their afternoon AFD about severe weather potential tomorrow afternoon?  Is it a CAM model?

SPC has placed much of the northern half of our CWA under a
slight risk for Wed as 0-6km shear of 40-45 kts combines with
instability/SBCAPE of 1200-1500 to produce potential for a few
severe storm. Best potential with timing of the cold front
approaching from the west would be after 19Z in the west and
after 21Z East of the Blue Ridge. Some issues determining how
it plays out storm-wise on Wednesday will be to what extent the
cloud cover can last through mid-day, the anemic mid-level lapse
rate, and just how unstable it can actually get. The 12Z HRFEv2
suggests highest potential for severe storms would be across
the western half of the CWA between 18-21Z...and then there is
uncertainty just how unstable it will be east of the Blue Ridge.

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So my forecast went from chances of thunderstorms/heavy rain every day to now just cloudy/mostly cloudy and zero mention of rain through Saturday. lol thats quite a change in one update cycle. Not had time to look at the guidance but I am guessing the Atlantic ridge iis flexing and building further west.

I guess those showers and storms I see on radar just to my south are going to die before they get here.

 

edit- Looks like there is some sort of issue with Mount Holly's local forecast products.

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1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

Where does that huge surge of rain go? I don’t see it disappearing ?

Looks to me like it's starting to weaken and also is heading well east of the cities. Looks more like an Eastern Shore deal except for maybe the western edge just clipping east of 95, but appears it would only last a few minutes. I wouldn't think much would happen until the front lifts north of us.

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