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July Discobs Thread


George BM

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Almost certainly.

I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions ;)

But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. 

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions ;)

But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. 

Ellinwood is looking for an ENH

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34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I mean they tend to warn sub-severe even without wet ground conditions ;)

But yeah - I could see today being pretty memorable simply due to the loose ground. Any other day I'd probably meh today for other than isolated severe - but today could be pretty damaging across the area. 

It is a really interesting situation where the ground impact potential is much more robust than the actual weather.  Maybe somewhat akin to putting out a winter weather advisory for light snow because it'll come at rush hour.

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It is a really interesting situation where the ground impact potential is much more robust than the actual weather.  Maybe somewhat akin to putting out a winter weather advisory for light snow because it'll come at rush hour.

I somewhat agree... but I don't think LWX will issue STW's for sub-severe winds unless they are around 50 mph or more.  I understand where you and kmlwx are coming from, but doesn't LWX still have to follow the standards that are set for issuing a STW?

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Just now, yoda said:

I somewhat agree... but I don't think LWX will issue STW's for sub-severe winds unless they are around 50 mph or more.  I understand where you and kmlwx are coming from, but doesn't LWX still have to follow the standards that are set for issuing a STW?

We've seen them warn for 30-40mph storms and list it as 60mph gusts. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

We've seen them warn for 30-40mph storms and list it as 60mph gusts. 

That doesn't seem right though.  I assume that there must have been pixels on radar or something that shows 60mph wind gusts or other radar proof for them to issue the warning.  I don't think they can just get away with seeing 40 mph winds and issue warnings

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

That doesn't seem right though.  I assume that there must have been pixels on radar or something that shows 60mph wind gusts or other radar proof for them to issue the warning.  I don't think they can just get away with seeing 40 mph winds and issue warnings

I'm not up on the latest guidelines.  Yes, severe warnings mean something in particular (50kt/58mph).  However, there is enough wiggle room in there that if they see anything on radar that indicates that those winds could even be potentially brought down, I'm sure they'll warn.  Tree falls will also make verification easier.

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm not up on the latest guidelines.  Yes, severe warnings mean something in particular (50kt/58mph).  However, there is enough wiggle room in there that if they see anything on radar that indicates that those winds could even be potentially brought down, I'm sure they'll warn.  Tree falls will also make verification easier.

Yeah I guess that's another question - if somebody gets their report of "MULTIPLE TREES DOWN" into the SPC reports - does that count as SVR verification if the winds were not measured or if they did not reach 58mph?

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is that a hook in that warned cell in C VA?  Or am I wrong? 

Nothing all that impressive on velocity scans. But that's an area that is known to have some enhancement for rotation in storms at times (near the river). 

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC003-013-015-033-043-047-057-059-061-065-069-075-079-085-091-
097-099-101-103-107-109-113-125-133-137-139-153-157-159-165-171-
177-179-187-193-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-840-
280200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0314.180727T1750Z-180728T0200Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE            ARLINGTON           AUGUSTA
CAROLINE             CLARKE              CULPEPER
ESSEX                FAIRFAX             FAUQUIER
FLUVANNA             FREDERICK           GOOCHLAND
GREENE               HANOVER             HIGHLAND
KING AND QUEEN       KING GEORGE         KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER            LOUDOUN             LOUISA
MADISON              NELSON              NORTHUMBERLAND
ORANGE               PAGE                PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK         RICHMOND            ROCKINGHAM
SHENANDOAH           SPOTSYLVANIA        STAFFORD
WARREN               WESTMORELAND


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS             MANASSAS PARK       STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO           WINCHESTER
$$
 

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huh... N movement by this cell

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
VAC061-153-683-685-271915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0167.180727T1823Z-180727T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
223 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia...
  Western Prince William County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas in northern Virginia...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 223 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Linton Hall,
  or 10 miles east of Warrenton, moving north at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Linton Hall, Bull Run, Haymarket, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park,
  Gainesville, New Baltimore, Nokesville, Catlett, Calverton,
  Catharpin, Woolsey, Auburn, Casanova, Greenwich and Aden.
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