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July Discobs Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

Posted
Posted

So far I've counted 40.12" for the year at BWI. The yearly record is 62.66" in 2003.

The average rainfall for August through the end of the year is 17.32"- we would need 22.55" to beat the record, so its really not too hard (next week will probably take care of that additional 5.23" above climo we need lol) 

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JakkelWx

JakkelWx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run

Yes it is. Plenty chances for heat and humidity. 

After about 2 weeks, the window for mid to upper 90s starts to close by at least Mid-August as it gets harder to achieve with waning insolation each day. 

We are just about to the last 2-3 weeks of the dog days

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, yoda said:

12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run

Was a pipe dream to skip August without some heat, hopefully given that we are into August now, it won't be a month or more of unrelenting big heat.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, yoda said:

12z GFS is ugly 500mb height-wise... 591-594 DM heights around starting late next week basically through the rest of the run

One thing to remember is that while heights are important, ridge placement is probably even more crucial, as is the depth of the layers.  For example, the Euro has ~592dm over us by days 8-10, but 850s are 15-16, which often translates to 90 plus or minus a couple. The GFS is similar, brushing us with 20C 850s by day 11/12, but if we are worried about big heat, you'd be looking at 850s well into the 20s.  This seems like run of the mill dog-days heat.  Of course, it'll be humid as hell.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Starting Saturday morning These are my COCORAHS reports

Sunday morning 7.20

Monday Morning 5.08

Tuesday morning 1.50

Wednesday morning 2.77.

My 4 day total was 16.55"  The heaviest 4 day stretch I can recall at my house. 

Crushed Wes wow

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jewell2188

jewell2188

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely similar . When I look at the latest models at 500mb ...this time the ull looks to be further west centered over Missouri then drifts NNE from there by Thursday ish . This most recent system ended up in the southeast ..also ..it doesn't become nearly  as negatively tilted . So  maybe not quite as long lasting as a result   . But with a strong west Atlantic ridge pressing west again ..I think local impacts could  be similar for sure  with us in the " squeeze " zone and deep gulf moisture .

Next Tuesday . 

The war won't be denied B)

500hv.na.png

Pwats

 

pwat.conus.png

Ninj'd by Yoda 

I should of gave the short version lol

 

Latest from Sterling for next week .. 


Monday, dry conditions will continue early in the day, before the
warm front lifts northward by early to mid afternoon. This is in
response to an approaching upper level trough from the east, and a
subtropical high pressure off the east coast (the Bermuda High)
drifting towards the west. The combination of these two factors will
allow for rich moisture to be transported into the region from the
Gulf of Mexico. With plentiful moisture, paired with left ahead of
the trough, showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly
likely Monday afternoon into the evening.

The upper-level trough continues to move towards the area Tuesday
and Wednesday, while the Bermuda High remains anchored off the east
coast. This will lead to a tightening of the gradient in the upper
levels, leading to an increase in the wind field aloft. Both the
Euro and GFS suggest that winds in the 850-500 hPa layer will
increase to 30-40 kts during this time frame. Again, with abundant
moisture and lift, scattered showers and storms will be possible
both days. With a strengthening upper level wind field, this would
suggest the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms each
afternoon. However the smaller scale details will have to be ironed
out closer to this time. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday
will again remain in the mid 80s across the region.

 

 

Great explanation! I would assume the axis of heavier rains would be more west this go around considering the ull would be further west? 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

 

   The sounding from TT shows much weaker low-level winds, so the profile doesn't look as good.   Regardless, that extreme backing of the winds in the sounding from Ian (via Yoda) is the result of the model having ongoing storms locally modify the low-level wind field, as opposed to an overall regional setup for tornadoes.      I think that the threat for SVR tomorrow here is fairly good, but I don't think that tornadoes are a major concern.

 

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA sounding at 00z SAT from 00z 3km NAM (h/t Ian on Twitter)

nam4km_2018072700_024_38.89--77.0.png

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 10.58.16 PM.png

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

yay :axe:

  

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>055-057-506-
271615-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0016.180727T1900Z-180728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-
Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster,
Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate,
Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Leesburg, Ashburn,
and Sterling
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in
  Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard,
  Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore,
  Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery,
  Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The
  District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls
  Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George,
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Stafford.

* From 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
  afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall rates likely. Given
  saturated soil from this week`s excessive rainfall, this may
  result in flash flooding.
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