high risk Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Looks like a quick break in the rain along I95 corridor... but more rain is approaching from the south soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: My next door neighbor had 3 feet of water in her basement yesterday when a gfi switch kicked and turned off her pump. Just curious- was her house built after 2008? That’s when the building codes started requiring sump pumps to be on GFCI. We had the same problem last year- fortunately we caught it during a minor event. It could work in a normal outlet but the GFCI outlet would trip. In our case, it really was the pump going bad so I’m glad the GFCI caught it. But it’s been a hotly debated topic as many times people get nuisance tripping. I see both sides of the issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week. Yup... PW's over 2" return by Monday and both EURO and GFS show a large trough returning per LWX AFD... more flooding rains on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like a quick break in the rain along I95 corridor... but more rain is approaching from the south soon That's going offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's going offshore. Not the rain down by RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Not the rain down by RIC Meso guidance has that RIC to NC stuff break apart and shooting offshore through the day. There's a bit of re-development progged over Amelia Court House and Blackstone but otherwise it's dry over the next 18 hours: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2018072412&plot_type=totp_z4sfc&fcst=08&time_inc=60&num_times=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=z4&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, high risk said: Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week. The good news is that it seems like we are going to get a break that wasn't really expected several days ago, and it looks like a significant break at that. It looks like once we get through today, and definitely tomorrow, it's mostly dry for 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Just curious- was her house built after 2008? That’s when the building codes started requiring sump pumps to be on GFCI. We had the same problem last year- fortunately we caught it during a minor event. It could work in a normal outlet but the GFCI outlet would trip. In our case, it really was the pump going bad so I’m glad the GFCI caught it. But it’s been a hotly debated topic as many times people get nuisance tripping. I see both sides of the issue though. No, it's an older home like all the others in this hood. I think the problem is that she recently had an automatic generator installed which, ironically, is because she travels a lot and wanted to be sure that her basement would be safe if we ever lost power. So I think the new electric work messed her up. The company was over there again yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Literally feels like a monsoon. 9" since Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 It's going to be piling up in eastern AA county/Baltimore county this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 My PWS says I've gotten 1.55" today. And it under reports rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 The upside of the current pattern is that we are efficiently killing off the hottest part of summer. I'm game for late-July troughs every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbusada Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 3.67 inches since 8:00 this morning in Lothian, MD. Total since 8:00 am Saturday 16.43”. Areas of our farm are flooded that have never been in the last 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 PWATS around 2.3''... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Beaches in nags head have taken a beating since Saturday. Now back to dunes with about 5-10 foot sand cliff in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, mbusada said: 3.67 inches since 8:00 this morning in Lothian, MD. Total since 8:00 am Saturday 16.43”. Areas of our farm are flooded that have never been in the last 30 years. Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today. Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Jakkel138 said: PWATS around 2.3''... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 953 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A broad and slow moving low pressure system over the Southeast will influence the Mid Atlantic through the middle of the week. A pair of cold fronts will move through the area during the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Plume of very deep moisture with PWs > 2.0 will remain over our area through Wed keeping the risk of excessive rains very high atop saturated ground and very high stream levels. Observed precipitable water from 12Z RAOB was 2.32 in. Modified for current forecast, we may be able to glean 1500-2000 j/kg SBCAPE. That would depend upon some daytime heating, which means breaks in the rainfall. SRH also around 100 m2/s2. So, a brief spin or wet microburst possible, but almost impossible to say when/where. Current stream of moisture, manifesting in heavy rain, along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay at this time. This has been modeled reasonably well in an ensemble sense. Recent CAMs and NAM/GFS runs suggest that there may be a break/lull this afternoon. Given the state of the atmosphere, don`t want to back down much, but did ease 90-100 PoPs down to 70s and 80s. There are also indications that another surge of precip may arrive at some point tonight, but solutions vary and confidence in details lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 EJ - it remains an absolute deluge in a large part of the area. I know you are only happy if there is untold death and destruction, but this has been an extremely well forecast and high impact event that has performed, I think, it is fair to say. Large parts of the LWX area over 8 inches or rain, and many 10 or more. The mid-range modeling picked up on this very well, I think. Not sure why your shtik, even as it does what it was supposed to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 LWX trimming pops down a tad...sun trying to poke out...maybe that'll re-energize stuff for later but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbusada Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today. Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up. That’s crazy. Seems like that big line of storms moving north is shifting a little east of me now. I hope we get a little break to give me time to finish building my ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today. Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up. But I heard someone say it wasn't raining enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: EJ - it remains an absolute deluge in a large part of the area. I know you are only happy if there is untold death and destruction, but this has been an extremely well forecast and high impact event that has performed, I think, it is fair to say. Large parts of the LWX area over 8 inches or rain, and many 10 or more. The mid-range modeling picked up on this very well, I think. Not sure why your shtik, even as it does what it was supposed to do... zzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the NJ, DE and MD/VA beaches lucked out. Probably real humid down there though. Near VA Beach -- we did luck out with a nice day on Sunday, and decent yesterday. But, our luck has run out with steady rain and looking like no break today. Roads around here are flooded. Gonna be board games and beer today LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: LWX trimming pops down a tad...sun trying to poke out...maybe that'll re-energize stuff for later but I'm not holding my breath. Maybe be a mirror image of yesterday? Some moderate rain in the morning. Peeks of sun in the afternoon. Got relatively hot ~mid 80s. But it never produced pops of storms. Got no rain. This was inside the beltway, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 42 minutes ago, high risk said: Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week. I was looking at that earlier. Almost looks like a redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Eventually the WAR weakens a little/pushes a little east so areas east of the chesapeake bay start cashing in GFS is very wet towards the end of the run with spots picking up 12''... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I know this should go to banter, but I like that EJ can take the reactions that he sometimes gets. Over an inch since 7AM and nearing a foot total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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