CAPE Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Looks like the main show has arrived here. Moderate to heavy rain. Will be interesting to see how much wind materializes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Never trust the NAM HRRR Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Fixed. Never trust either really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Never trust either really. Do you think the heaviest rain still falls along the I 95 area and East, or do you believe the heaviest rains will fall West of say Baltimore ? When I looked this AM I saw the heaviest modeled rain totals from lower Delaware going North and Northnorthwest. If the HRR is to be believed those areas miss out on the heaviest totals . Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The new up and coming GFS is a whiff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, frd said: Do you think the heaviest rain still falls along the I 95 area and East, or do you believe the heaviest rains will fall West of say Baltimore ? When I looked this AM I saw the heaviest modeled rain totals from lower Delaware going North and Northnorthwest. If the HRR is to be believed those areas miss out on the heaviest totals . Thanks East of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The new GFS is a whiff lol You're joking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: East of I-95. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You're joking? I was wondering the same thing when he said that. Obviously the models have been wavering a bit (which is normal) especially when convection is involved on where the heaviest rain sets up but it is certainly not a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I was wondering the same thing when he said that. Obviously the models have been wavering a bit (which is normal) especially when convection is involved on where the heaviest rain sets up but it is certainly not a whiff. What I shared was para-like. eta: supposedly a better gfs at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The new and "improved" (lol) FV3-GFS as has already been pointed out is not off to a great start accuracy wise. Here is the run of the model just 36 hours before the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 1 minute ago, MDstorm said: The new and "improved" (lol) FV3-GFS as has already been pointed out is not off to a great start accuracy wise. Here is the run of the model just 36 hours before the start of the event. That's not good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks I'll refine this a bit more by saying Baltimore east to Philly. That's my favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 HRRR keeps shifting the death band around gradually. Back a shade east on the 14z. 15z well east, back to Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's not good to see. Imagine if this was a mid winter SECS :-) Hopefully it just requires fine tunning, from what I read 3 months ago I thought it was good / better than the current model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR keeps shifting the death band around gradually. Back a shade east on the 14z. 15z well east, back to Annapolis. Ellicott City 3.0 today...calling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Slight - moved west https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1 LWX responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 .80 since this event started this am. Also, if you want it to really open up, order some chinese takeout. It was light to drizzle for me a while back. As soon as I ordered and had to pick it up, whamo! Probably picked up .5 in those 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Nice downpour here now. Winds picking up some too. Feels a tad raw out. 0.65" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Days like today are what make me laugh when people say, "This area is hot too..." when I tell them from Louisiana. That I'm not going to break 70 degrees today in July... my god, this is why I moved here. And I love the rain too. About to take a nice Jebwalk... in my sleep, comfortably in my bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 0.52" here in Clarksburg so far. Too bad that GLL is ruining the column for our coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 46 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR keeps shifting the death band around gradually. Back a shade east on the 14z. 15z well east, back to Annapolis. lol the HRRR 16z has it over the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 .5" so far. Want to break 2", I'll be happy with that. A nice, heavy rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Never trust the NAM Unless it's showing 3 feet of snow, then hug it and don't let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 .69'' of rain so far 70/70 RH 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 0.3" storm total in New Windsor, Carroll County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Gfs has the heaviest stuff around these parts from about 5-11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Just constant low level rain here for the last 3 hours in Alexandria City Virginia w minimal wind. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 .70 so far. Thats plenty good for any event. Nice looking banded rauns moving up thru northern neck and So Md. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 64/63 with 0.34" so far. Feels like a fall day today. Amazing for late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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