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July Discobs Thread


George BM

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The low will continue its northerly progression Saturday along
the Delmarva peninsula. The ECMWF continues to be one of the
farthest east models. Regardless, this situation bears watching
as a strong low level jet will be wrapping around the low with
its nose focused on eastern portions of our forecast area.
Trajectories bring tropical moisture and deep warm cloud layers
from the Gulf of Mexico. Some periods of moderate to heavy rain
appear likely. The question is how much convective potential can
be realized, because that could lead to excessive rainfall
rates. As it is, rainfall will be very efficient, with 2+ inch
totals by the time the system pulls away. Will let later shifts
determine the need for a Flood Watch given the uncertainties in
the duration of heavy rainfall and banding features. Greater
concern lies near and east of I-95, including Baltimore and
Washington. There will likely be a gap with little to no precip
in central parts of the CWA, with potential showers and storms
associated with the upper level low affecting far southwestern
zones. Thick clouds and precip will hold temperatures in the
70s.

The low will pull away to the northeast Saturday evening, and
convection associated with the upper low will diminish with loss
of insolation, so overall there will be decreasing chances of
rain through the night. Low clouds and potentially some fog and
drizzle could linger though.
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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We can take it to the banter/ot thread since it's a past event but Lee wasn't a big deal for the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas.  Some isolated areas got big totals but the widespread heavy rains were confined to the mts. of VA, MD and PA.

It may have been somewhat spotty, but weather is an IMBY game, and I “won” big-time with Lee. That’s really all I care about.

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Cool read from Mt Holly AFD..

A high amplitude pattern will feature a cutoff low over the Midwest
that is sandwiched between strong downstream ridging over the
western Atlantic basin as well as an anticyclone over the Southwest
U.S. and Southern Plains. As mentioned in the previous section, a
secondary low will organize near the base of the negatively-tilted
trough in coastal Carolinas tonight. This coastal low is then
forecast to continue deepening to around 1004 mb on Saturday as it
tracks northward toward the Delmarva. Models continue to show a well-
developed mid-latitude cyclone as it moves into our area later in
the day, which is rather extraordinary for the middle of summer.

Low CAPE profiles from the latest models indicate a rather low
threat of lightning without the presence of upright convective
instability to support deeper updrafts. However, cross-sectional
analysis from the 12Z NAM and GFS show the potential for CSI along
and east of the low track where very high theta-e air in the warm
sector wraps around the low. Accordingly, the potential for
slantwise instability juxtaposed in a region of very strong lift
from an impressive 60-kt SEly low-level jet (zonal and meridional
component wind anomalies of -5SD and +5SD, respectively) and deep
tropical moisture (forecast PWATs of 2.25-2.5" would be near-record
values) will be more than enough to compensate for a lack of upright
instability to produce heavy rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per
hour.
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TWC has my town getting thunderstorms every day past Saturday and almost every night. Amazing wet pattern we're going into considering how dry it's been. 

Widespread 3-5'' amounts with some isolated 5-8'' to be had according to this mapDikpWsOW0AAbc69.jpg

Potentially our best opportunities coming for a few loud boomers at night so far this year at least after this zipper low zooms up the coast and into your fanny.

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9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Cool read from Mt Holly AFD..


A high amplitude pattern will feature a cutoff low over the Midwest
that is sandwiched between strong downstream ridging over the
western Atlantic basin as well as an anticyclone over the Southwest
U.S. and Southern Plains. As mentioned in the previous section, a
secondary low will organize near the base of the negatively-tilted
trough in coastal Carolinas tonight. This coastal low is then
forecast to continue deepening to around 1004 mb on Saturday as it
tracks northward toward the Delmarva. Models continue to show a well-
developed mid-latitude cyclone as it moves into our area later in
the day, which is rather extraordinary for the middle of summer.

Low CAPE profiles from the latest models indicate a rather low
threat of lightning without the presence of upright convective
instability to support deeper updrafts. However, cross-sectional
analysis from the 12Z NAM and GFS show the potential for CSI along
and east of the low track where very high theta-e air in the warm
sector wraps around the low. Accordingly, the potential for
slantwise instability juxtaposed in a region of very strong lift
from an impressive 60-kt SEly low-level jet (zonal and meridional
component wind anomalies of -5SD and +5SD, respectively) and deep
tropical moisture (forecast PWATs of 2.25-2.5" would be near-record
values) will be more than enough to compensate for a lack of upright
instability to produce heavy rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per
hour.

I already experienced light rain at 1am from altocumulus clouds. Rain bucket is set up. I am going to enjoy everything I can get, because I will be going down to Hell, Texas in a little over a week where it will likely not rain again til early 2019, and that precip WILL be rain, not snow. Hell Texas is in the grip of a devastating heat wave. That hellish heat will enthusiastically greet me when I get there, lol. So will the clouds of bloodthirsty mosquitoes and hordes of 3 inch scorpions.

I am not happy about this. Not one little bit.

Be very glad you are not poor Jebman, hot Texas-bound.

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Family at Ocean City this weekend, looks like waterspots are even possible later today and tonight . 

Think the Euro had some 10 meter wind gusts possible as well, up to 55 to 65 mph in places 

Cape May Court House off the Garden State Parkway I thought I saw the highest 10 meter wind gust forecasted 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR very impressive right over Baltimore. Someone likely topping a half foot of rain from this. 

When you look at the current radar over the East with the Upper low over the Midwest , the bow echo line dropping SE into Atlanta and the SE states, and the coastal moving North really looks like a winter event.  Pretty cool to look at and run a loop . 

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