Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 10 hours ago, yoda said: You will like this then Double that and we're talking. My minimum rainfall is 7" in under 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 The GFS is further west...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, George BM said: The GFS is further west...for now. Makes it for a very rainy Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Euro total precip Sat through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Euro total precip Sat through Tuesday. Very dry for a 4 day forecast. Enough to water the lawns and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Models seemed to have locked into a more westerly solution and a very soggy Saturday here. Whether it's enough to cause flooding is another question. It looks like the system moves quite quickly through the area, so I'm guessing that will limit the amount of rainfall we get. Think I'm skipping the beach this weekend though. Saturday will be a washout and Sunday looks iffy with rain and I'm guessing it will also be rather cool and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 13 hours ago, mdhokie said: So I'll be at the beach next week. Where the heck did the persistent forcasted rain come from? I know right? After weeks of dry and sun we get a pattern like this for VA Beach. As for adding insult, here at home in Germantown we'll get between 0.00 and 0.3 for the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Euro dryslot even in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Euro dryslot even in the summer. It is a bit comical to watch the Euro curl right around us. The American models are further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 This thing is quickly trending away from any impact other than just some rain...bummer. This had potential a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Rain likely, heavy at times early. High 74F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 2 to 3 inches of rain expected. Locally heavy rainfall possible. For Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This thing is quickly trending away from any impact other than just some rain...bummer. This had potential a few days ago. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 From Mount Holly morning AFD- Saturday and Saturday night...The coastal low will start to make its way up the coast on Saturday. The models continue to have differences with respect to timing, strength, and speed of the low as it moves up the coast but the solutions again look closer than they did on their previous runs. The models have all shifted slightly west with the track of the low, with it hugging the coastline. All of the guidance continues to suggest heavy rainfall with the low as it moves across the region. WPC has put us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall and we agree. Hi-res models and the deterministic models show 2-5+ inches in some areas through Saturday. However, with the exact track and timing (GFS is fast, NAM is slower, and ECMWF is slower still) still a bit uncertain, it is hard to pinpoint just which areas are the most at risk for the higher rainfall totals. Flash flooding is a concern and although we have had a dry period of late, the rain will fall quickly and will not be as easily absorbed into the ground. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed as the details become a little clearer based on later model runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 3K isn't as impressive as the others but NAM really likes some big rain for us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I hope we drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Hey mattieg, those last few frames of the 12z 3km NAM remind you of anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 12z GFS at 30 hrs smoking I-95 corridor with heavy rain... continues at 36 with SLP over Delmarva ETA -- Around 1.5" to 3" or so of rain on Saturday... maybe a lil more. Bullseye is just south of DCA basically on this GFS run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 GFS looks a little less impressive than last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hey mattieg, those last few frames of the 12z 3km NAM remind you of anything? Unfortunately, yes. I’ll let someone else have Lee Mk 2, thankyouverymuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 47 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Hey mattieg, those last few frames of the 12z 3km NAM remind you of anything? 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Unfortunately, yes. I’ll let someone else have Lee Mk 2, thankyouverymuch. Huh... I didn't get that vibe from the 3km NAM final few precip frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 83/69 a little more humid than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 31 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh... I didn't get that vibe from the 3km NAM final few precip frames We don’t get the straight S to N training storms often. Lee is the top example there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 39 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh... I didn't get that vibe from the 3km NAM final few precip frames 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We don’t get the straight S to N training storms often. Lee is the top example there. I see Lee everywhere. He haunts my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, mattie g said: I see Lee everywhere. He haunts my dreams. Lee was weak sauce outside of the usual flood prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Lee was weak sauce outside of the usual flood prone areas. Huh? We got 13 inches of rain where I was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Huh? We got 13 inches of rain where I was We can take it to the banter/ot thread since it's a past event but Lee wasn't a big deal for the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas. Some isolated areas got big totals but the widespread heavy rains were confined to the mts. of VA, MD and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We can take it to the banter/ot thread since it's a past event but Lee wasn't a big deal for the immediate DC/Baltimore metro areas. Some isolated areas got big totals but the widespread heavy rains were confined to the mts. of VA, MD and PA. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20110905_lee The most intense rain bands formed on Wednesday, September 7th and Thursday, September 8th, when the worst flash flooding occurred. On Wednesday morning, September 7th, a torrential rainband set up in a north/south orientation across Maryland from Charles County into Baltimore County. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour occurred for several hours within this band, causing numerous high water rescues, road closures, and flooded homes. Of note was a rain gauge in Bowie, MD, that observed 4.57 inches of rain in 3 hours, which is an amount that only has a 0.5 percent chance of occurring in a given year. Central Charles County (above) and Ellicott City (left) in Howard County were particularly hard hit. On Thursday, September 8th, the heaviest rainband set up slightly west of the previous day. This band brought torrential downpours through much of the daytime hours along a swath from King George County, VA to Montgomery County, VA, including the western suburbs of Washington DC. Extremely anomalous 3-hour rainfall amounts were recorded at several automated rain gauges during the event. One near Franconia observed 5.47 inches, a 3 hour amount that has approximately a 0.2 percent chance of occurring in any given year. A similarly rare six hour rainfall amount of 6.57 was observed at Reston (see right). Also, at Fort Belvoir, an automated weather station tallied 7.03 inches in only 3 hours. Rainfall of this magnitude and duration has a 1 in 1000 chance of occurring each year. This amount of rain caused nearly catastrophic flash flooding in portions of northern Virginia. Tragically, at least 2 people lost their lives in floodwaters in Fairfax County. Hundreds of citizens of Fairfax and Prince William County were evacuated. Numerous major thorough-fares were flooded and closed, including portions of the Capital Beltway, Interstate 66, and George Washington Parkway. The Virginia Railway Express’s Manassas Line and numerous school districts remained closed into Friday as floodwaters slowly subsided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Weird. I'm right in the purple stripe but don't remember it being a big deal. However, wasn't that a storm that flooded downtown Ellicott City? It wasn't anything like we saw in the last two flash floods with water raging down the road, but I think there was some of that to a much lesser degree and there was some minor flooding/damage down by the Patapsco at the bottom of Main Street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 12z Euro keeps almost everything east of 95 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 I have a training class in Ellicott City on Sunday PM. Would be nice to not get washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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