MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 0.70” yesterday, still under an inch for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Beautiful morning. Picked up .25" yesterday. Well, at least I got one evening off from watering the garden. Should be dry as a bone by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 0.66" here yesterday, which is my total for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Nice comfortable morning ....61/60 .37" total yesterday Yeah its pretty nice out. I am headed to the beach for a couple days. Weather should be absolutely perfect. Forecast highs of 81 today and 79 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I have nearly 1.5 for the month, all since Sunday afternoon. I was fortunate. Even though places just to my East and North are pushing 4 inches for the 3-day period. Dale City and Woodbridge into southern Fairfax got the brunt. MN Trans and I were on the edges. In between us got crushed (Matt/Yoda). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Finally broke the moisture cap in my part of Balt City at 10:30 last night. Got a good downpour for 30 minutes or so. Much, much needed. Looks REALLY wet on the modeling for a lot of the area starting Saturday and for a lot of days after that, from what I can see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Pretty good WAR, gets the immediate coastline and New England under those 591 dm heights... Days of rain weird pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 24 minutes ago, JWilliam9830 said: Pretty good WAR, gets the immediate coastline and New England under those 591 dm heights... Days of rain weird pattern lol I was hoping for some thunderstorms while at VA Beach next week since I don't get them at home but, uh, careful what you wish for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 June 2006 showing up on the CIPS Analogs for this weekend/next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: June 2006 showing up on the CIPS Analogs for this weekend/next week. Hey Joe, a picture for us less weather educated folks please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 3 hours ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: Hey Joe, a picture for us less weather educated folks please? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_United_States_flood_of_2006 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/26/AR2006062600234.html I think this is some background on it... @Eskimo Joe can correct me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Don't know if it's accurate that far back, but looked at the history of my nearest PWS for those 2006 dates and it was a complete shutout here from the 26th through the 30th. Lol. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 I'm supposed to go camping this weekend at Martinak. Wondering if I should rethink it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 78/62 dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 12 hours ago, yoda said: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_United_States_flood_of_2006 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/26/AR2006062600234.html I think this is some background on it... @Eskimo Joe can correct me Correct. My benchmark for a non-tropical flood setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Correct. My benchmark for a non-tropical flood setup. You will like this then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 83/57 no clouds to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: You will like this then A setup like what is progged on the global guidance would favor the coastal plain and eastern slopes of the mountains. There would likely be a minimum somewhere around I-95 and it's important to note that not everyone would get widespread 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 The GFS is west at 12z with total accumulated precip but it is also drier in the LWX region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, JWilliam9830 said: The GFS is west at 12z with total accumulated precip but it is also drier in the LWX region. The trend with the Euro is to hold the heavy rain (4"+ into PA, NJ and NY). I fully expect the GFS and other guidance to trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Hey, did any one else have a fairly strong gust move through in the last hour or so? At work and all of a sudden wind picked up quite strongly, enough for people to think a thunderstorm was about to happen. However it only lasted for about 15 - 20 seconds then back to relative calm. Very bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Thinking about OCMD for Friday through Sunday. Thoughts? Friday looks great, Saturday looks like a total washout and Sunday is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 As of now, Monday afternoon through Wednesday midday is our best shot for a soaker before this thing heads offshore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: As of now, Monday afternoon through Wednesday midday is our best shot for a soaker before this thing heads offshore: I was hoping for 4 to 5 inches of rain , I knew this would trend West . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 NAM 3k has trended west again on 18z run Now has the LP go up the mouth of the chesapeake, and drenches a lot of subforum folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 So I'll be at the beach next week. Where the heck did the persistent forcasted rain come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Saturday is definitely trending wetter, maybe even flooding type rains, with each model run. 18z is pretty impressive even for our area. Sunday looks better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, frd said: I was hoping for 4 to 5 inches of rain , I knew this would trend West . A west trend is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Updated long term LWX AFD: Quote .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON SUNDAY, AN EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH AN EMBEDDED VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF TO OUR WEST WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. OVER TIME, THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DEFORM FROM A WELL ROUNDED TROUGH, TO A WEAKER, MORE MERIDIONALLY ELONGATED FEATURE AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CANADA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST, WE WILL ALSO BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERHEAD WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES OVER OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THOSE HIGH PW VALUES, COUPLED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD ALSO ENCOURAGE TRAINING OF STORMS. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LIKELY AND AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWilliam9830 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 The air is dry here, can the NWS issue a winter storm watch because flakes are falling... off of my skin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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