July 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

Before you disappear from the internet for the holiday long weekend, post a forecast for July 2018:

Temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normals for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... late penalties begin at 06z Sunday July 1st but will proceed at the leisurely pace of 1% every 4 hours for 48 hours then jump to 1% an hour by 06z Tuesday July 3rd. ...

Have a great holiday weekend and good luck ! 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

+3.5, +4.0, +4.5, +2.5, +3.5, +2.0, +2.5, +2.5, 0

[hudsonvalley21]

L

+2.8, +3.4, +3.2, +1.6, +2.5, +2.4, +2.1, +1.7, +2.3

 

NYC

[bkviking]

DCA: +2.8

NYC: +2.4

BOS: +2.8

ORD: +2.5

 ATL: +2.0

IAH: +1.9

DEN +2.8

PHX: +1.7

SEA: +1.6

 NYC forum 

[Tom]

DCA: +3.1

NYC: +2.8

BOS: +2.1

ORD: +2.9

 ATL: +1.8

IAH: +2.1

DEN +3.0

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +0.6

Philly

[wxallannj]

•  

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +2.8

BOS: +2.8

ORD: +2.5

 ATL: +1.3

IAH: +0.8

DEN +2.3

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.6

 NYC forum 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0     2.8      2.4         2.2      0.3     0.2        0.1      1.5     0.7

NYC Metro Subforum

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.0      1.0        1.0       1.5    1.5       0.5      1.0     0.5 

[Roger Smith]

+2.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ --0.2 ___ +4.5 _ +2.0 _+1.0

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.5

NYC: +4.0

BOS: +4.0

ORD: +4.0

 ATL: +2.5

IAH: +1.0

DEN +2.0

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +1.5

Nyc

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0     1.0      1.5         2.0      0.0     1.7        2.7      2.5     2.1

[wxdude64]

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.8

ATL: +2.2

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +2.8

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +0.2

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.9

BOS: +2.5

 ORD: +3.5

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +3.5

 PHX: +2.5

 SEA: +1.9

NYC

[jaxjagman]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +2.3

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +3.0

SEA: +0.9

 

TV

 

[Stebo]

DCA: +3.8

NYC: +3.5

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +3.5

 ATL: +3.0

IAH: +2.5

DEN +3.5

PHX: +1.2

SEA: -0.5

GLOV

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts July 2018

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Stebo _____ (-8%) ________ GL/OV _ +3.8 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+1.2 _--0.5

AfewUniversesbelownormal ___ MA __ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.5 __+2.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+2.5 __ 0.0

RJay _____________________ NYC __+3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.5 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

Tom _____________________PHL___ +3.1 _+2.8 _+2.1 __+2.9 _+1.8 _+2.1 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.6 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ NYC __ +2.8 _+3.4 _+3.2 __+1.6 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+1.7 _+2.3

Roger Smith _______________C+W __+2.8 _+2.0 _+1.7 __+1.5 _+1.3 _--0.2 __+4.5 _+2.0 _+1.0

BKViking __________________NYC __ +2.8 _+2.4 _+2.8 __+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.9 __+2.8 _+1.7 _+1.6

 

___ Consensus ____________ N A ___+2.7 _+2.8 _+2.5 __+2.4 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+2.8 _+1.8 _+0.7

 

dmillz25 __________________NYC __ +2.5 _+2.9 _+2.5 __+3.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 __+3.5 _+2.5 _+1.9

jaxjagman _____ (-3%) _____ TNV __ +2.2 _+2.3 _+1.8 __+1.9 _+2.3 _+2.1 __+3.0 _+3.0 _+0.9

DonSutherland.1 ___________ NYC __ +2.0 _+2.8 _+2.4 __+2.2 _+0.3 _+0.2 __+0.1 _+1.5 _+0.7

RodneyS __________________ MA __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __+2.0 __ 0.0 _+1.7 __+2.7 _+2.5 _+2.1

wxallannj _________________ NYC __ +1.8 _+2.8 _+2.8 __+2.5 _+1.3 _+0.8 __+2.3 _+1.9 _+0.6

Scotty Lightning ____________PHL __ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

wxdude64 ________________ MA ___ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.5 __+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+2.8 _+1.1 _+0.2

 

_____ Normal _____________USA ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

_________________________________________________________________________________________

color codes depict high and low forecasts, Normal is low for seven of them too. We may just drop the + sign

the way some of you already do, at this rate ... two forecasts out of 126 entered are negative ...

... consensus is median value, mean of 7th and 8th ranked of the 14 forecasts

... welcome back oh long-named one ... ...

Seems that SE and PA/NY are going to miss July, will ask around what sort of reduced penalty would be acceptable,

the two I have assessed above are by the rules and would be reduced if we get into that to preserve the Rumble,

but I got very busy on a house painting project the past week and couldn't chase people down as I usually do.

Still, if only there was something with dates and pictures to remind people of new months, do you think anyone

will ever invent something like that?  Most of you guys (and gals?) seem to remember fairly predictably, I don't

think Don has ever been assessed a late penalty in the seven years I have been doing this (including before I was scoring).

I had one when I couldn't access the internet on a trip once upon a time. Anyone else with a perfect on time record?

(and that's not Don's only claim to fame around here). ... ... 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Rather late in the day for an update on anomalies so will work from anomalies for 1-8 and forecast to 15th from NWS 7-day available. Updates after 15 and 22 days, also 29 days.

 

_____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Seasonal Max to date ____ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ____ 97 __ 94 __101 ____105 __ 116 __ 94

 

__anomaly 1-8 ________ +3.6 _+4.2 _+5.2 __+3.9 _+0.8 _--0.8 __+3.6 _+3.3 _+2.6

__anomaly 1-15 _______ +2.6 _+2.9 _+2.7 __+4.6 _+1.6 _--0.1 __+3.1 _+0.3 _+4.2

__anomaly 1-22 _______ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+3.4 _+1.4 _+1.2 __+3.4 _+0.4 _+3.9

__anomaly 1-29 _______ +1.1 _+1.4 _+2.6 __+2.6 _+0.6 _+1.5 __+1.6 _+1.8 _+4.9

 

__forecast anom 15th ___+2.0 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+4.0 _+0.5 _--0.5 __+4.0 _+0.8 _+2.5

__forecast anom 22nd ___+1.7 _+2.1 _+2.6 __+2.8 _+1.0 _+1.2 __+4.0 _--0.5 _+3.8

 

__forecast anom 24th ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+3.0 __ 0.0 _--0.2 __+3.0 _+1.0 _+2.0

__forecast anom 31st ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 __+2.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+5.0

 

__confirmed July anom __+0.9 _+1.1 _+2.7 __+2.2 _+0.6 _+1.4 __ +1.1 _+1.7_+5.0

__________________________________________________________________________

(16th) _ The average error of past 7 day NWS forecasts was 0.73 deg (rated good).

(20th) _ Checked forecast anomalies 22nd and 31st for provisional scoring, only change was to PHX which is now running hotter. 

_________ The --0.5 for 22nd likely to be closer to +1.0, the forecast anomaly 31st boosted to +1.5. Going with the rest of the earlier estimates.

The average 7-day error for the 22nd was 0.45 deg (rated excellent). I have left the end of month provisionals alone for now, going on the road until mid-August but will be on line around 1st-2nd to update final anomalies and scoring.

(30th) _ Starting the mid-vacation work session today (in Mesquite NV) and have listed the 29th anomalies, adjusting provisionals where needed. Will update the seasonal max table also. A few locations (IAH, PHX, SEA) have added 1 deg since my last check. It is 112 F here but a/c works.

 

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal Max 2018 contest

-- updated Sep 11th ... no new max in August or early September, and table will now migrate to the September thread ...

... any changes will also be edited in here, not really expecting many.  ATL 95 on Sept 14th. 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

Max to date ____________ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 95 __101 ___105 _ 116 __ 94

 

Scotty Lightning ____________103 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

 

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

 

Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 _ 122 __ 93

Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

 

 

(table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower)

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total

 

DonSutherland.1 ____________1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 0 __ 6 _____ 18

wxallannj _________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _____  7 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 19

RodneyS __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 19

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 21

wxdude64 _________________2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 22

BKViking __________________1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____10 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 24

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 6 __ 1 __ 4 _____ 24

so_whats_happening ________2 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 4 _____ 24

Stebo ____________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 8 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 25

jaxjagman ________________ 0 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 4 __ 3 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1  _____ 25

Roger Smith _______________ 2 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 26 

RJay _____________________ 4 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 28

dmillz25 __________________ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 5 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 28

mappy ___________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 9 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 30

Tom _____________________ 4 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 31

Scotty Lightning ____________5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 6 _____ 7 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 34

Orangeburgwx _____________1 __ 3 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 ____ 18__11 __ 4 _____ 53

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for July 2018

All scoring is now updated, based on final anomalies posted two posts back. ... scores for SEA have been adjusted to the max score of 60 (max raw score was only 46).

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

RodneyS __________________ MA __ 78 _ 98 _ 76 __ 252 __ 96 _ 88 _ 94 __ 278 __530 __ 68 _ 84 _ 55 __ 207 ___ 737
 

DonSutherland.1 ___________ NYC __ 78 _ 66 _ 94 __ 238 __100_ 94 _ 76 __ 270 __ 508 __ 80 _ 96 _ 28 __ 204 ___ 712

wxallannj _________________ NYC __ 82 _ 66 _ 98 __ 246 __ 94 _ 86 _ 88 __ 268 __ 514 __ 76 _ 96 _ 24 __ 196 ___ 710

Scotty Lightning ____________PHL __ 88 _ 98 _ 66 __ 252 __ 76 _ 82 _ 98__ 256 __ 508 __ 88 _ 86 _ 20 __ 194 ___ 702

BKViking __________________NYC __ 62 _ 74 _ 98 __ 234 __ 94 _ 72 _ 90 __ 256 __ 490 __ 66 _100_ 45 __ 211 ___ 701

wxdude64 ________________ MA ___ 90 _ 90 _ 76 __256 __ 92 _ 68 _ 98__ 258 __ 514 __ 66 _ 88 _ 16 __ 170 ___ 684

___ Consensus ____________ N A ___64 _ 66 _ 96 __ 226 __ 96 _ 74 _ 92 __ 262 __ 488 __ 66 _ 98 _ 28 __ 192 ___ 680

hudsonvalley21 ____________ NYC __ 62 _ 54 _ 90 __ 206 __ 88 _ 62 _ 80 __ 230 __ 436 __ 80 _100_ 60__ 240 ___ 676

dmillz25 __________________ NYC __ 68 _ 64 _ 96__ 228 __ 74 _ 62 _ 88 __ 224 __ 452 __ 52 _ 84 _ 50 __ 186 ___ 638

jaxjagman ________________ TNV __ 74 _ 76 _ 82 __ 232 __ 94 _ 66 _ 86 __ 246_ 478 ___ 62 _ 74 _ 32 __ 168_ 646

______________ (-3%) _____ TNV __ 72 _ 74 _ 80 __ 226 __ 91 _ 64 _ 83 __ 238 __ 464 __ 60 _ 72 _ 31 __ 163 ___ 627

Roger Smith _______________C+W __62 _ 82 _ 80 __ 224 __ 86 _ 86 _ 68 __ 240 __ 464 __ 32 _ 94_ 36 __ 162 ___ 626

Tom _____________________PHL___ 56 _ 66 _ 88 __ 210 __ 86 _ 76 _ 86 __ 248 __ 458 __ 62_ 76 _ 24 __ 162 ___ 620

RJay _____________________ NYC __48 _ 42 _ 74 __ 164 __ 64 _ 62 _ 92 __ 218 __ 382 __ 82 _ 94_ 40 __ 216 ___ 598

_____ Normal _____________USA ___ 82 _ 78 _ 46 __ 206 __ 56 _ 88 _ 72 __ 216 __ 422 __ 78 _ 66 _ 12 __ 156 ___ 578 

AfewUniversesbelownormal ___ MA __ 48 _ 42 _ 64 __ 154 __ 94 _ 42 _ 88 __ 224 __ 378 __ 72 _ 84 _ 12 __ 168 ___ 546

Stebo ___________________GL/OV _ 42 _ 52 _ 96 __ 190 __ 74 _ 52 _ 78 __ 204_ 394 ____ 52 _ 90 _ 04 __ 146 _ 540

___________ (-8%) _______ GL/OV _ 39 _ 48 _ 88 __ 175 __ 68 _ 48 _ 72 __ 188 __ 363 __ 48 _ 83 _ 04 __ 135 ___ 498

_________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble scoring for July 2018

 

Region _____________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL

Mid-Atlantic (MA) ______256 _____ 278 _____ 207 _______ 741

New York City (NYC)____246 _____ 270 _____ 240 _______ 756

Philadelphia (PHL) _____ 252 _____ 256 _____ 194 _______ 702

___ Consensus ________226 _____ 262 _____ 182 _______ 670

Tenn Valley (TNV) _____ 226 _____ 238 _____ 163 _______ 627

Central-Western (C+W)_ 224 _____ 240 _____ 162 _______ 626

_____ Normal _________206_____ 216 _____ 156 _______ 578

Great Lakes Ohio valley _ 175 ____ 188 _____ 135 _______ 498

_______________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

 

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - July 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

  

 Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

 ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

 ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

  ... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July).

 ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________454 _474 _488 ___1416 ____ 366 _450 _286 ____1102 ___ 2518 __2*3*2 03*1 .2.1 __ MAY
 

DonSutherland.1 ___  410 _392 _442 ____1244 ____ 351 _422 _333 ____1106 ___ 2350 ___ 000 210 .0.1

wxdude64 _________ 422 _411 _428 ____1261 ____ 348 _389 _350 ____1087 ___ 2348 ___ 230 002 .2.0

hudsonvalley21 _____ 363 _358 _404 ____1125 ____ 327 _407 _455 ____1189___ 2314 ___ 000 001 .0.1

jaxjagman _________ 376 _352 _426 ____1154 ____ 351 _418 _384 ____1153 ___ 2307 ___ 001 000 .0.1

wxallannj __________ 378 _394 _442 ____1214 ____ 356 _348 _381 ____1085 ___ 2299 ___ 001 001

Scotty Lightning (SD) _405 _399 _456 ___ 1260 ____ 361 _355 _317 ____1033 ___ 2293 ___ 111 101 .1.1

 

___Consensus ______ 365 _369 _436 ____1170 ____ 347_396 _365 ____1108 ___ 2278 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

BKViking ___________349 _395 _452 ____1196 ____ 315 _385 _371 ____1071 ___ 2267 ___ 001 000 .0.1

Tom ______________ 353 _371 _437 ____1161 ____ 305 _397 _319 ____1021 ___ 2182 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN

___Normal _________396 _391 _429 ____1216 ____ 350 _359 _241 ____ 950 ___ 2166 ___ 001 101 .0.0

RJay ______________310 _348 _399 ____1057 ____ 273 _404 _403 ____1080 ___ 2137 ___ 011 001 .1.1 __ APR

RodneyS ___________354 _372 _382 ____1108 ____ 309 _352 _346 ____1007 ___ 2115 ___ 210 200 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL

Stebo _____________ 297 _314 _406 ____1017 ____ 343 _390 _364 ____1097 ___ 2114 ___ 000 111 .0.0

dmillz25 ___________ 315 _285 _354 ____ 954 ____ 346 _376 _372 ____1094 ___ 2048 ___ 000 010 .0.0

so_whats_happening*_251 _295 _354 ____ 900 ____ 302 _341 _314 ____ 957 ___ 1857 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/7) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(5/7)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/7) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/7)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/7) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/7) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July

all shown (2/7) missed March to July, Orangeburgwx (5/7) missed January and July,

 ... mappy (5/7) missed June and July, and H2OTown_wx (3/7) missed April, May, June, July.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 360 _ 504 _ 442 ____ 1306 __________1 1 2 __ Apr ______ 3599 (= 2)

BKViking _______________342 _ 496 _ 452 ____ 1290 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 3557 (= 3) __ JUN

RodneyS_______________ 400 _ 484 _ 357 ____ 1241 __________ 1 1 1 __May ______ 3358 (= 9) _ MAR, APR, JUL

hudsonvalley21 _________ 370 _ 421 _ 431 _____1222 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jul _______3536 (= 5)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 352 _ 466 _ 385 _____1203 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jan _______3553 (= 4)

__ Consensus __________ 340 _ 476 _ 374 _____1190 __________ 0 1 0 _____________3468 (= 6)

wxallannj ______________ 348 _ 494 _ 325 _____1167 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______3466 (= 6)

RJay __________________359 _ 408 _ 396 _____1163 __________ 2 1 0 _____________3300 (=11)

Roger Smith ____________318 _ 450 _ 364 _____1132 __________ 2 0 0 __ Jan _______3650 (= 1) __ MAY

Tom __________________ 357 _ 438 _ 332 _____1127 __________ 1 0 0 _____________3309 (=10) 

dmillz25 _______________ 277 _ 451 _ 368 _____1096 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 3144 (=12)

wxdude64 _____________ 363 _ 392 _ 340 _____1095 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3443 (= 7)

 

__Normal ______________314 _ 388 _ 372 _____1074 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 3240 (=12) __ FEB

 

jaxjagman _____________ 294 _ 388 _ 380 _____1062 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3369 (= 8)

so_whats_happening* ____257 _ 383 _ 311 _____ 951 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2808 (=14) __ FEB

Stebo _________________ 228 _ 391 _ 234 _____ 853 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2967 (=13)

Orangeburgwx (5/7)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/7) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/7) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/7) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/7) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/7) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - July _) 

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL

New York City _____ 1431 ____ 1342 ____ 1473 _____ 4246

Mid-Atlantic _______ 1508 ____ 1394 ____ 1318 _____ 4220

Central + Western __1570 ____ 1241 ____ 1178 _____ 3989

Philadelphia _______ 1469 ____ 1157 ____ 1346 _____ 3972

__ Consensus _____ 1170 ____ 1108 ____ 1190 _____ 3468

Tenn Valley _______ 1202 ____ 1152 ____ 1072 _____ 3426

__ Normal ________ 1216 _____ 950 ____ 1074 _____ 3240

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1017 ____ 1097 _____ 853 _____ 2967

 

 

[Roger Smith]

(Extreme forecast summary)

DCA(+0.9) is a win for low forecast from wxdude64 (+1.4). It's a loss for Normal under the rules.

NYC (+1.1) is a shared win for wxdude64 and Scotty Lightning both at +1.0, Normal takes another loss.

ATL (+0.6) is a win for DonSutherland.1 (+0.3) and a loss for RodneyS (0.0) as well as Normal. 

IAH, PHX are in consensus territory and do not qualify. 

DEN (+1.1) has taken a late nosedive and is a win for Scotty Lightning (+0.5) and a loss for Don S (+0.1) .

SEA (+5.0) will finish much warmer than high forecast of +2.3 from hudsonvalley21 .

updated annual standings

 

Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above)

RodneyS _____________ 7-2

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above)

wxdude64 ____________ 4-0

RJay ________________ 4-2

__ Normal ____________ 4-5

wxallannj _____________3-0

Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1

DonSutherland1 ________3-1

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ________ 2-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

Tom _________________ 0-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

ALL SCORING NOW UPDATED IN PREVIOUS TWO POSTS, subject to later verification when I return to home base and check the excel files.

The annual race has tightened up considerably, almost any regular forecaster in the group has some chance of winning with not much of a spread from first to about twelfth places. 

     

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Thanks for this... cool

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, if you enter a total of five months your best scores will be exclusively yours, our contest policy is to note them for regulars when we have best scores from one or two time sort of entrants, but 5 would demonstrate a commitment to the contest. Although you can't get enough points to catch the regular entrants, you can assist RodneyS and wxdude64 in the Regional Rumble when your three-station totals are higher. So there's an incentive to turn up.

I have been flying solo most of the year, so for me it's more of a Regional Stumble. 

[Roger Smith]

This may be comparing apples and oranges, but the closest we can come to a direct comparison of scoring per contest entered is to calculate the average station score out of 100. For those who have entered all months, this is your total score divided by 63. For those who have entered fewer months, the average is calculated from 9 times the number of months entered. Here's the direct comparison ...

Rank __ Forecaster __ Average score

01 ___ afewUniv b n __ 1135/18 __ 63.1

02 ___ Roger Smith ___ 3650/63 __ 58.0

03 ___ Mercurial ______ 1033/18 __ 57.4

04 ___ Scotty Lightning _3599/63 __ 57.2

05 ___ BKViking _______ 3557/63 __ 56.5

06 ___ DonSutherland.1 _3553/63 __ 56.4

07 ___ hudsonvalley21 _ 3536/63 __ 56.1

______Consensus _____ 3468/63 __ 55.1

08 ___ wxallannj ______ 3466/63 __ 55.0

09 ___ wxdude64 _____ 3443/63 __ 54.6

10 ___ jaxjagman _____ 3369/63 __ 53.5

11 ___ RodneyS ______ 3358/63 __ 53.3

12 ___ Tom __________3309/63 __ 52.5

13 ___ RJay __________3300/63__ 52.4

14 ___ so_whats_happ'g_2808/54 __52.0

______ normal ________ 3240/63 __ 51.4

15 ___ dmillz25 ________3144/63 __49.9

16 ___ cerakoter1984 ___ 448/9 ___ 49.8

17 ___ buckeyewx ______432/9 ___ 48.0

18 ___ tnweathernut ____ 431/9 ___ 47.9

19 ___ Stebo __________2967/63 __ 47.1

20 ___ Orangeburgwx __ 2090/45 __ 46.4

21 ___ mappy _________1722/45 __ 38.4

22 ___ H2O ____________ 690/18 __ 38.3

23 ___ H2OTown__wx ___ 979/27 __ 36.3

24 ___ nrgJeff __________ 594/18 __ 33.0

25 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow 130/9 __ 14.4

_________________________________________________

note this is the average of your scores after late penalties, for every lost 63 points as a full-time entrant, add 1.0 to assess your average forecast score. Orangeburgwx before late penalties averaged closer to 55. One or two others would gain 1-2 points on average.

This analysis is of course dependent on how easy or difficult the months entered may have been, so as mentioned, apples vs oranges.