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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Two new high dew point records for JFK this summer. Greatest number of July days with a max dew point of 75 or above at 15. First 3 years in a row to reach 15 days. 

 

IMG_0204.thumb.PNG.4a893f14b460b7fb638363b44f778bbc.PNG

 

IMG_0206.thumb.PNG.01726a472ce93940f13a005578648a0c.PNG

 

Sub tropics..

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14 hours ago, Mancave25 said:

There was talk about the weather getting hot again, could anyone tell me if they see it in the near future 

 

Been pretty warm of late - but watch the period on/around 8/4 - 8/12, perhaps beyond for some more widespread heat (Central park is likely too overgrown/wet) but much of the metro/ NJ/NYC area could see the next heat wave in that timeframe.  WC ridge looks to get knocked down and centered pushed pushed east, WAR may hook and bring next blast of summer from GL/MW to east coast then.  Will continue to track this in the August thread. 

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On 7/25/2018 at 1:20 PM, Poker2015 said:

Thats always the case. I feel like every year they like launching them friday night, saturday morning for the 5k, and sunday night...Saturday night they have rarely gone up in the 10 years i've been in Branchburg, even though thats probably the most crowded day there. Maybe they focus more on the balloon glow that night...

Turned out to be a great day for the party.  Unfortunately no balloons flew over my house.  This morning of course about 15 did.  

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Two new high dew point records for JFK this summer. Greatest number of July days with a max dew point of 75 or above at 15. First 3 years in a row to reach 15 days. 

 

IMG_0204.thumb.PNG.4a893f14b460b7fb638363b44f778bbc.PNG

 

IMG_0206.thumb.PNG.01726a472ce93940f13a005578648a0c.PNG

 

I really far prefer a summer like 2010 which had more heat but less dews. I believe we had influence far more from a Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Ridge than the Bermuda high, and much more a westerly than southerly wind flow. 

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7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Sub tropics..

 

6 hours ago, bkviking said:

I really far prefer a summer like 2010 which had more heat but less dews. I believe we had influence far more from a Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Ridge than the Bermuda high, and much more a westerly than southerly wind flow. 

Also, numerous hourly high dew point records and ties over the last 3 summers. 

network-NY_ASOS--zstation-JFK--month-all--var-max_dwpf--dpi-100.thumb.png.58eb884fa224d70b20edd07e760fda9f.png

 

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4 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

Turned out to be a great day for the party.  Unfortunately no balloons flew over my house.  This morning of course about 15 did.  

Last night was awesome, we had about 60 people over and all the balloons came directly over my house and about 10 landed in the park 2 houses down the street so we all went over to help pack them up.

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Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May.

By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. 

Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE.

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May.

By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. 

Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE.

Sure does look more NNE than NE.  clouds racing in quick too.  Better today than the weekend

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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I think I'll take all the WFOs and all the model guidance over radar hallucinations. Since doorman's not here, have an NCEP map presented without comment and figure out why the best forcing should weaken and slide offshore. 

PzCJ97U.gif

Also, winds on the relevant isentropic surfaces turn much more zonal near the M-D line, and the column up here is dry as a bone.

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2018073000.72501.skewt.parc.gif

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May.

By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. 

Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE.

Hard to believe every model is gonna be wrong about rain not making it up here this afternoon. You can see the radar echoes weakening and moving more ENE once they get up to southern Jersey. I could see some sprinkles making it up to central Jersey, but that should be about it.

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5 minutes ago, sferic said:

This Friday (August 3rd) the NYC mean makes its first drop by 1 degree to 76 degrees. By Aug 31st the mean is down to 73 degrees.

starting to lose daylight at a quicker pace from here on out as well.  Sunset is now 8:12pm, 18 minutes off the peak from late June...

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28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

starting to lose daylight at a quicker pace from here on out as well.  Sunset is now 8:12pm, 18 minutes off the peak from late June...

The worst part of fall. Hate losing sunlight. Leaving work in thnow dark sucks.

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57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hard to believe every model is gonna be wrong about rain not making it up here this afternoon. You can see the radar echoes weakening and moving more ENE once they get up to southern Jersey. I could see some sprinkles making it up to central Jersey, but that should be about it.

We'll see.

When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations.

It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell.

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19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We'll see.

When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations.

It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell.

Fill in near Allentown? All I see on radar out that way is false echoes. And you can clearly see the echoes way to the south being pushed east when they make it up to southern Jersey. It's very obvious to me that there's not going to be any rain at all up here this afternoon, but we'll see.

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We'll see.

When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations.

It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell.

Focus on batch of rain/storms moving NE out of  WV/SW-PA

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10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Focus on batch of rain/storms moving NE out of  WV/SW-PA

Yes I'm not sure what he was talking about near Allentown. On the Mount Holly base reflectivity loop you can see echoes south of Allentown through central Jersey, but they are clearly false echoes (ground clutter).

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