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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Ended up being dissapointing here.

Especially since tonight was supposed to be the heaviest all week.

Early in the day someone pointed out that NAM had the heavy rain missing NYC to the east for tonight. You said radar over models, but the NAM ended up being right. It was right on the money about the heavy rain going just to the east of NYC tonight.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Early in the day someone pointed out that NAM had the heavy rain missing NYC to the east for tonight. You said radar over models, but the NAM ended up being right. It was right on the money about the heavy rain going just to the east of NYC tonight.

Not really. I missed those heavy training cells to my West by about 5 miles. Some places in Passaic County had 3-5” today. I thought the activity would be more widespread, that’s where I was wrong and why it was dissapointing.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Not really. I missed those heavy training cells to my West by about 5 miles. Some places in Passaic County had 3-5” today. I thought the activity would be more widespread, that’s where I was wrong and why it was dissapointing.

Hrrr nailed the heavy rain over long island. 

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next couple of days especially on Friday when we have the potential for some severe weather. Then it looks like we will get a brief break with more heavy rain/storms possible next week.

Yeah. Friday has potential to be a good day for severe weather atleast on east coast standards. 

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Just missing the action here in Lindenhurst (SW Suffolk) as most of the precip has been to my west thus far.  Looks like that next batch about to come onshore will miss me as well, but to the east.  Have had some brief showers here this evening, but overall have been pretty dry.  Pretty much a non-event thus far for me.

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Remainder of July averaging 79degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.5.   Should end July at  +1.6.   The full 8 days are 80/+3.

Our three main models are barely normal now for the next 10 days at 1"-2".  [1.4" is Normal]

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2.41" at Wantagh. Good to see the Euro consistent for several days with the LI Wed night heavy rain forecast. So we are two weeks in a row with a heavy rain event. Last week was over 1" in just 30 minutes. Very high PWAT/dew point regime for our area.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2.41" at Wantagh. Good to see the Euro consistent for several runs with the LI Wed night heavy rain forecast. So we are two weeks in a row with a heavy rain event.

..getting nickled and dimed out here...got .50 from last nites rain.

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12 minutes ago, tim said:

..getting nickled and dimed out here...got .50 from last nites rain.

Yeah, the orientation of the WAR and persistent SE flow has favored areas further west for the heaviest rains this month to date.

July rainfall so far

ISP.....2.95

NYC....6.80

BWI... 15.43

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Still looks like we see hints the W. ATl Ridge (WAR) builds west the first week of Aug (8/3) for a period allowing a break of the persistent southerly / wet tropical flow to a more SW flow and hotter temps.  Until then Miami style weather continues.  

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the orientation of the WAR and persistent SE flow has favored areas further west for the heaviest rains this month to date.

July rainfall so far

ISP.....2.95

NYC....6.80

BWI... 15.43

Over 6” here in Wantagh just about 10 miles west of Islip. I have really lucked out this month getting allot of Nassau county specials. Things are very lush here now!

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26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Over 6” here in Wantagh just about 10 miles west of Islip. I have really lucked out this month getting allot of Nassau county specials. Things are very lush here now!

5" here this month, right in between...

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