NycStormChaser Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 1 hour ago, sb7916 said: NortheastPAWx? The rain has never bothered me. It's just the timing when it's being forecast to happen and the type of rain we get that gets me concerned. If it's just overnight into the morning and we dry out by the afternoon with sunshine forecast to return I'm happy with that but if it's forecast to hang around throughout the day with no clearing expected it does stress me out a bit because cloudy dreary gloomy weather does kind of stress me out. I enjoy brightness not dark gray gloomy skies and prefer the convectve type of rain where it's just scattered showers and storms with sun out in between over the all day cloudy stratiform type It makes me happy when we get summertime storms actually. I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, seanick said: It makes me happy when we get summertime storms actually. I look forward to it. Adds variety/interest. The last 3 weeks while sunny and hot/warm have been pretty boring for weather enthusiasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 55 minutes ago, seanick said: It makes me happy when we get summertime storms actually. I look forward to it. Me too just not as much as tracking snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 hours ago, sb7916 said: dmillz25? I understand that in summer it rains, it's humid but I always get a little shaky with certain wording especially considering that last July was not a real summer especially that last week of July when nothing but cloud cover dominated and temps were not July like, they were only September like with low to mid 70s and that is what I hope not to see again during the unsettled stretch. Just hoping to get enough of sun out in between showers and storms with high temps at least into the 80s plus Monday July 23 I have a free outdoor movie night to attend at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm and I'm hoping that the weather cooperates for that Sometimes during mid to late Fall or very early Spring, a day or so of stratiform rains gives time for some needed indoor activities, correspondence catchup or just to sit listen and remember. Nothing is all bad in its time. As always ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 don't get used to these current dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: don't get used to these current dewpoints Nice rainy week enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 See that word rainy week is making me nervous again. With that wording your making it sound like it's going to be more like April around here with cloudy, dreary drizzly weather when obviously it's should be worded scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the week not worded rainy week. Some people on blogs really need to watch what they say. I remember last December 3 weeks before December 29th someone on here said NYC was going to get 4 feet of snow on December 29th and we all know that 4 feet of snow for NYC is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 10 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: I am stunned that turned out to be an actual funnel cloud. Looked pretty ragged, I don't know. I guess I see so few of them that I don't really know what they can look like. I agree. After witnessing countless shelf clouds with underlying scuds at the beach I'm 99% sure it's a scud. Funnel clouds do not form on the shelf/gust front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Also when is the precip from the weekend tropical storm supposed to start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, sb7916 said: See that word rainy week is making me nervous again. With that wording your making it sound like it's going to be more like April around here with cloudy, dreary drizzly weather when obviously it's should be worded scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the week not worded rainy week. Some people on blogs really need to watch what they say. I remember last December 3 weeks before December 29th someone on here said NYC was going to get 4 feet of snow on December 29th and we all know that 4 feet of snow for NYC is not going to happen. Dude are you OK? It is going to be roughly seasonable temps, high dew points, with a hung-up trough of some kind that will instigate a lot of precip chances. Nobody knows particulars beyond that, and even that might be wrong The models show different solutions. Take a chill pill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice rainy week enjoy doubt it rains the entire week-afternoon pop up activity yes, but not a washout on any given day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 41 minutes ago, sb7916 said: See that word rainy week is making me nervous again. With that wording your making it sound like it's going to be more like April around here with cloudy, dreary drizzly weather when obviously it's should be worded scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the week not worded rainy week. Some people on blogs really need to watch what they say. I remember last December 3 weeks before December 29th someone on here said NYC was going to get 4 feet of snow on December 29th and we all know that 4 feet of snow for NYC is not going to happen. That’s a lot more words than “rainy week.” Given that you understand what is actually meant by the term, I would say it gets the point across in this case. However in many cases I agree that specificity is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 34 minutes ago, sb7916 said: See that word rainy week is making me nervous again. With that wording your making it sound like it's going to be more like April around here with cloudy, dreary drizzly weather when obviously it's should be worded scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the week not worded rainy week. Some people on blogs really need to watch what they say. I remember last December 3 weeks before December 29th someone on here said NYC was going to get 4 feet of snow on December 29th and we all know that 4 feet of snow for NYC is not going to happen. What are you worried about? Nobody is saying it is going to be a spring-like rain where it lightly rains for days at a time. The people are on here are not forecasting for the public. It is all about looking at models, so it does not surprise me someone would mention a huge snowstorm on a model in December. Never take anything more than a few days away verbatim. A model is just used for guidance. A model alone is not a forecast. Looking at the pattern setting up next week, it does look tropical wet. Ever been to Florida? You can have gorgeous blue skies all morning with high humidity, then downpours for an hour or so in the afternoon. As soon as it ends it is still in the upper 70s, cloudy, and humid. That is what next week is looking like to me right now. I think highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the 70s, maybe even up to upper 70 dews. It may be a tad dreary at times, but I do not think it will be chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 Created a thread for the potential coastal/tropical system this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: don't get used to these current dewpoints Pretty impressive deep tropical moisture feed even by 2010's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 Current temp 86/DP 55/RH 33% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Yep, the EURO is 4.5" to 6.0" around here for the next 10 days. The jackpot is eastern PA. at 9". Meanwhile for that hybrid system, the EURO has 30-40mph. gusts for a while during Saturday night to early Sunday AM. The forecasts I have heard from local mets, is pooh---poohing this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 14 hours ago, sb7916 said: dmillz25? I understand that in summer it rains, it's humid but I always get a little shaky with certain wording especially considering that last July was not a real summer especially that last week of July when nothing but cloud cover dominated and temps were not July like, they were only September like with low to mid 70s and that is what I hope not to see again during the unsettled stretch. Just hoping to get enough of sun out in between showers and storms with high temps at least into the 80s plus Monday July 23 I have a free outdoor movie night to attend at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm and I'm hoping that the weather cooperates for that OK, so my two cents on this. Take a look at the NWS forecast for this week from Monday. Pay particular attention to Mon, Weds, Thurs, Fri: .TODAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs around 90. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Now, take a look at the extended forecast for next week so far: .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. For someone who is (for example) looking for a week to take vacation, which one would YOU recommend? And with all respect, do you mean to tell me that the extended forecast for next week doesn't look "wet" compared to this week? Mostly Cloudy doesn't even equate to Florida weather in the summer where the sun shines for most of the day and you get some popup convection every afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +2.7. Should be +2.2 by the 27th. CMC insane at 10" for the next 10 days. EURO is 4.5" and GFS is 2.5". With just over half the summer gone, NYC is averaging +1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Feels amazing this morning. 67 dew 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 The Northeast tied the all-time 500 mb ridge in early July with 599 dm. Now models are forecasting a 600 dm record ridge to our east. This will act as a a deep tropical moisture pump up along the East Coast. You knew something extreme was going to happen with the WAR this summer when we set the 588 dm cold season record here in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Northeast tied the all-time 500 mb ridge in early July with 599 dm. Now models are forecasting a 600 dm record ridge to our east. This will act as a a deep tropical moisture pump up along the East Coast. You knew something extreme was going to happen with the WAR this summer when we set the 588 dm cold season record here in February btw: What were the THK and 850mb. T at this same time---I assume you were referring to Feb. 21 (78 to 80) around here. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: btw: What were the THK and 850mb. T at this same time---I assume you were referring to Feb. 21 (78 to 80) around here. Thanks in advance. Ryan posted the sounding chart with the record cold season 500 mb height back in February. Even for the 2010's, this is very extreme 500 mb behavior. This is BANANAS. The 500mb height from this evening's weather balloon launch on Long Island is a record for December, January, February, March and (tied) April. This is not normal. #nbcct pic.twitter.com/mOsFV2N6Kv 5:12 PM - 20 Feb 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Bottomed out at 49 this morning for my fourth low in the 40s so far in July. Even with some of the shortest nights of the year during an AN regime, the radiational cooling won't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Bottomed out at 49 this morning for my fourth low in the 40s so far in July. Even with some of the shortest nights of the year during an AN regime, the radiational cooling won't be denied. SLK nearly made it down to freezing and set a new record low for the date. Remarkable considering the all-time record warm minimum of 80 at BTV a few weeks ago. A record low temperature was set in northern New York this morning (Thursday, July 19th)! Saranac Lake had a low of 35, which breaks the old record of 38 set in 2000. #nywx 6:10 AM - 19 Jul 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 I'm hoping the WAR decides to retrograde a bit westward back towards the coast to give us a shot at getting more summer time warmth and keeping the moisture pump just to our west instead of right over us with less unsettled weather and a bit more sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Just now, sb7916 said: I'm hoping the WAR decides to retrograde a bit westward back towards the coast to give us a shot at getting more summer time warmth and keeping thr moisture pump just to our west instead of right over us with less unsettled weather and a bit more sun That is more likely on/around 7/31 - 8/1 or into first week of august Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7916 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 I'm hoping it will decide to happen sooner than that though at least by next weekend to give us a shot at having a nicer weekend than what is expected this weekend. So many people look forward to weekends in the summer for going to the beach and shores and the weekends are the most important days for it to be nice so I'm hoping it decides to happen by next weekend rather than waiting until July 31 or August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Bottomed out at 49 this morning for my fourth low in the 40s so far in July. Even with some of the shortest nights of the year during an AN regime, the radiational cooling won't be denied. Nice, made it to 52 here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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