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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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This is very upsetting news. Wish people would stop saying very wet period during this time of year. Making it sound like it's going to be like April with gloomy gray skies every day with no sun and well below normal temps. People should stop being so pessimistic all the time and start talking more positive about the weather for once

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4 minutes ago, sb7916 said:

This is very upsetting news. Wish people would stop saying very wet period during this time of year. Making it sound like it's going to be like April with gloomy gray skies every day with no sun and well below normal temps. People should stop being so pessimistic all the time and start talking more positive about the weather for once

You know we don't control the weather right?

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Yes I know that no one can control the weather but the wording can make it sound real bad. With this wording I'm under the impression that the period will feature nothing but gray gloomy skies and well below normal temps. Hoping it's the summer type convection unsettled type where it's still warm and humid with sun out in between any showers and storms

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12 minutes ago, sb7916 said:

Yes I know that no one can control the weather but the wording can make it sound real bad. With this wording I'm under the impression that the period will feature nothing but gray gloomy skies and well below normal temps. Hoping it's the summer type convection unsettled type where it's still warm and humid with sun out in between any showers and storms

Make sure to leave faucets dripping to prevent freezing and bursting pipes. Stay warm and be safe.

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15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The 00z GFS is very wet for its entire run, also looks like the potential coastal low for the weekend may come in a bit earlier as well.

What a signal and most of that is convective so who knows what the totals would be. 

I'm intrigued by this coastal/hybrid system, it's definitely an interesting little feature.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a signal and most of that is convective so who knows what the totals would be. 

I'm intrigued by this coastal/hybrid system, it's definitely an interesting little feature.

Yes very interesting to say the least. It seems like there is fairly good model agreement of a very wet period which actually began with yesterdays rain/storms as many areas received over an inch of rain.

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While the temperatures didn't make it to 100 this July at our major stations, the high dewpoints are turning out to be the bigger story. The Euro and GFS bring back mid to upper 70's dewpoints by this weekend or early next week. As we saw yesterday and in early July, this type of tropical moisture can produce torrential downpours and flash flooding. Individual features like subtropical lows or waves will only add to the heavy convection and flooding potential.

 

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8 minutes ago, sb7916 said:

Is it really going to rain non-stop for 3 weeks straight or more with no dry times or sun at all starting this weekend? That would be insane if true.

First off bro relax! 2. No it’ll be like Florida humid with pop up storms. This weekend is going to be aided by a subtropical low which will bring more widespread storms. It’s summer it rains it’s humid you really need to chill out. Btw that summer banter thread that’s here? Use it if you want to whine and complain 

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dmillz25? I understand that in summer it rains, it's humid but I always get a little shaky with certain wording especially considering that last July was not a real summer especially that last week of July when nothing but cloud cover dominated and temps were not July like, they were only September like with low to mid 70s and that is what I hope not to see again during the unsettled stretch. Just hoping to get enough of sun out in between showers and storms with high temps at least into the 80s plus Monday July 23 I have a free outdoor movie night to attend at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm and I'm hoping that the weather cooperates for that

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1 minute ago, sb7916 said:

dmillz25? I understand that in summer it rains, it's humid but I always get a little shaky with certain wording especially considering that last July was not a real summer especially that last week of July when nothing but cloud cover dominated and temps were not July like, they were only September like with low to mid 70s and that is what I hope not to see again during the unsettled stretch. Just hoping to get enough of sun out in between showers and storms with high temps at least into the 80s plus Monday July 23 I have a free outdoor movie night to attend at Forest Park Bandshell in Woodhaven NY at 8:00pm and I'm hoping that the weather cooperates for that

Dude, calm the hell down and use some punctuation while you're at it. All your posts so far have been panicky, run-on sentences over some possible showers. If it rains, so what? Welcome to weather.

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Pattern ensuring is somewhat similar late Jul / early Aug 2003.  Areas saw widespread storms/downpours for 8 - 12 day period EWR recorded 6.5". Days when sun came out were mid/upper 80s with HI upper 90s.

 

 

 

 

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NortheastPAWx? The rain has never bothered me. It's just the timing when it's being forecast to happen and the type of rain we get that gets me concerned. If it's just overnight into the morning and we dry out by the afternoon with sunshine forecast to return I'm happy with that but if it's forecast to hang around throughout the day with no clearing expected it does stress me out a bit because cloudy dreary gloomy weather does kind of stress me out. I enjoy brightness not dark gray gloomy skies and prefer the convectve type of rain where it's just scattered showers and storms with sun out in between over the all day cloudy stratiform type

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5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Pattern ensuring is somewhat similar late Jul / early Aug 2003.  Areas saw widespread storms/downpours for 8 - 12 day period EWR recorded 6.5". Days when sun came out were mid/upper 80s with HI upper 90s.

 

 

 

 

GFS shows the WAR pressing west which will set up this flow....

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

GFS shows the WAR pressing west which will set up this flow....

Models forecasted this well in advance and WAR has been overoerforming southerly flow for days.  2003 saw a progression to a 2 week warm period with some heat, we'll see if this period follow similarly.

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4 hours ago, Mancave25 said:

If the WAR presses west that means inland folks will have a better shot at heavy rains

Not necessarily because the WAR will always be shifting and not stay static. Right now it looks like most of the east coast will be under the gun. 

Will it mean everyone will get inches and inches of rain, no, but the threat is certainly there. 

And of course now the 12z gfs shows a much stronger WAR that shifts the rains west, go figure.

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1 hour ago, sb7916 said:

NortheastPAWx? The rain has never bothered me. It's just the timing when it's being forecast to happen and the type of rain we get that gets me concerned. If it's just overnight into the morning and we dry out by the afternoon with sunshine forecast to return I'm happy with that but if it's forecast to hang around throughout the day with no clearing expected it does stress me out a bit because cloudy dreary gloomy weather does kind of stress me out. I enjoy brightness not dark gray gloomy skies and prefer the convectve type of rain where it's just scattered showers and storms with sun out in between over the all day cloudy stratiform type

Then you are living in the wrong area dude. We do not control the weather. Does it stink when summer weather does not cooperate? You betcha if you love boating, swimming, beaching, etc. But this summer has been quite nice overall. If you want sunny everyday, then there is the southwest. If you want heat and humidity everyday, there is Florida. The upcoming pattern looks like it will be warm and humid. When there is sun it will help fuel the big thunderstorms, but they will pour and move on. You are not looking at a week plus of drizzle. 

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