CIK62 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +2.9. Should be +2.3 by the 24th. Last 10 days of the month look to have high temps. and humidity. However the atmosphere divides these, it is going feel uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 only about .25 here since the big rains of late June. Hoping tomorrow delivers. Models showing hit/miss areas as one would expect with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 9 hours ago, SACRUS said: 7 - 15 TEB: 89 LGA: 87 ACY: 87 ISP: 86 EWR: 86 TTN: 85 New Brunswick: 84 NYC: 83 PHL: 83 JFK: 82 BLM: 82 83 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Current temp 87/DP 75/RH 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Recent NAM runs have been disappointing with the convection splitting once east NYC. Going to be a drought monitor upgrade for places like ISP on Thursday if tomorrow can't produce. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rloop.html I really lucked out Saturday night with around 1.5" of badly needed rain. Hopefully we do not see the dreaded conviction split. It must have something to do with the NYC heat island. It happens time and time again. More research is definitely needed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I really lucked out Saturday night with around 1.5" of badly needed rain. Hopefully we do not see the dreaded conviction split. It must have something to do with the NYC heat island. It happens time and time again. More research is definitely needed... The north shore tends to be hit much more frequently for some reason. I always assume it’s simply the instability axis which storms can tend to follow. Yesterday that one cell up near SWF was tracking SSW for a long time despite the fact almost no steering flow between 500-700 was anything but NW or NNW. As soon as the back edge of the MCS clouds cleared areas to the SE of the cell it began moving more SSE. Almost as if the cell knew that the sun was now heating areas along the steering flow path. LI also tends to do better with lines that approach from the NNW vs W because the sea breeze impacts them later and allows them to stay stronger vs lines that approach from the west and begin feeling impacts of south flow across NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Upton notes PWATS close to 2.50 for tomorrow... - Tuesday will see POPs continue to increase as the cold front slowly moves through. There will be a chance for heavy rain associated with the frontal passage. PWATs are near 2.50", which is very high for this time of year given climatology. So although storm total precipitation is around an inch, some isolated areas may receive upwards of two inches. This could lead to some urban and small stream flooding. Widespread flash flooding looks unlikely as much of the tri-state has been relatively dry lately. In fact, New London County is in a DO in the US Drought Monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 89/73, scorcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: only about .25 here since the big rains of late June. Hoping tomorrow delivers. Models showing hit/miss areas as one would expect with convection. And just 30-40 minutes north of you it's between 3-4" so far this month. C'mon up and enjoy the lushness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, gravitylover said: And just 30-40 minutes north of you it's between 3-4" so far this month. C'mon up and enjoy the lushness convection has died out as it approaches the coast...seems to be more so the last few weeks-we are far enough north and west (as far as coastal folks go) that we get the goods before it dies out further S and E....this year it seems the dying out has started earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: convection has died out as it approaches the coast...seems to be more so the last few weeks-we are far enough north and west (as far as coastal folks go) that we get the goods before it dies out further S and E....this year it seems the dying out has started earlier.... Yea, we have been skunked big time in Suffolk County this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 The squall line in June was very underwhelming in Manhattan after the initial gust. Hopefully tomorrow is more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Got a little over an 1" Saturday into Sunday, much needed. Could use a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 seabreeze moved in and temp dropped from 91 to 90, dewpoint up to 75...we roast, even ISP hit 90, FOK 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 JB says watch out for a hybrid type noreaster coming up the coast this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: seabreeze moved in and temp dropped from 91 to 90, dewpoint up to 75...we roast, even ISP hit 90, FOK 88 Another day this month with 75+ dewpoints just like Florida. Kennedy Intl FAIR 85 76 74 S14 29.97F HX 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Current temp 94/DP 74/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: JB says watch out for a hybrid type noreaster coming up the coast this weekend. James all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: JB says watch out for a hybrid type noreaster coming up the coast this weekend. Sb7916 called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sb7916 called it Gasing up the snowblower as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Topped out at exactly 90.0, dew point topped out at 77.5.... This month is averaging an even 87.0/67.0 (mean 77.0) at my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: convection has died out as it approaches the coast...seems to be more so the last few weeks-we are far enough north and west (as far as coastal folks go) that we get the goods before it dies out further S and E....this year it seems the dying out has started earlier.... It's raining pretty hard here right now. It looks like the bulk of the storm is just off to my south though. Are you getting any of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Warm and muggy night out there. Current temp 85/DP 73/RH 63% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: It's raining pretty hard here right now. It looks like the bulk of the storm is just off to my south though. Are you getting any of this? I could see the anvil off to my Northwest, but nope, not a drop here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Unbearable in manhattan tonight. Happy to be headed home to the island. Though with warm offshore water temps now there isn't much relief. The storms upstate look pretty intense with some barely moving. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some serious flash flooding especially in western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 I'm seeing strobe lightning on the horizon from that storm in SW NH. Some of the flashes are actually bright enough to dimly illuminate the foreground. Impressive for that distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 7 - 16 ACY: 95 PHL: 95 TTN: 94 TEB: 94 EWR: 94 LGA: 93 New Brunswick: 93 BLM: 91 ISP: 90 NYC: 90 JFK: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Upgraded to a slight risk for severe today. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +3.1. Should be +2.4 by the 25th. 7/22 --- 8/2 looking like a cloudout and rainout. The record for consecutive days with measurable precipatation is 12, and this would tie record---also set around this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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