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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like alot of mid to upper 80's temps the next several days after today with the exception of Tuesday which is expected to be in the lower 90's. Humidity and dew point may pick up a bit as well making it feel more uncomfortable. 

Should be nothing like last week though

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35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Interestingly enough Larry Cosgrove is really on the warm/hot train for temps in our area the rest of this month and possibly into August as well. 

He is probably using Rossby Wave Train, which keeps heights AN till Aug.    First half of August looks normal or less with the RWTT.    As it is, the GFS can not make up its mind on Week 2 Heatwave or Rainwave! + Heatwave!      JB says MJO 6 will put us BN eventually.

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Long time lurker of this forum. Finally decided to join today. Been following you all for quite a few years. It has always been a pleasure following the boards. Some of you may know me from the Tri-State weather facebook group. Anyway, I tend to think that July will remain above normal for temps. I have never found JB to be accurate, especially since he seems to have a strong cold bias. The CPC also tends to keep us at an elevated chance for an above normal JAS period. 

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8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Lets see if temps overperform today and we see some 90(+)s.  Tomorrow looks like low-mid 90s, falling back to 80s wed-fri with more onshore flow.

NWS had forecast of 90 for me so they called it

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Grass areas that don't get regularly watered are all turning brown on the South Shore. Only .05 at ISP through the first 8 days of July. Not much rain in the forecast through at least July 15th.

 

gfs_apcpn_neus_28.thumb.png.6ed2c7b6e5997fb1f8c10c2d8ede912d.png

 

Yea same here 0.05. Getting brown out there

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro weeklies starting to pick up on the more favorable MJO for rain here later this month. But things should continue to dry out before any flip.

The latest Euro weeklies suggest it turns wetter along the eastern seaboard from late July into early August ... better to get those beach days in earlier than later pic.twitter.com/2ZT2P9PqpQ

I am hoping this will carry into the fall and winter as well, we will just need the cold air for the winter months but I don't want to get ahead of myself. I am sure that talk will start ramping up by September.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro weeklies starting to pick up on the more favorable MJO for rain here later this month. But things should continue to dry out before any flip.

The latest Euro weeklies suggest it turns wetter along the eastern seaboard from late July into early August ... better to get those beach days in earlier than later pic.twitter.com/2ZT2P9PqpQ

Likely by way of the WAR building far enough west to keep the flow out of the tropics and slow fronts, should it pulse further west than more heat into late Jul/Aug.

 

GFS with less than an inch through d12

 

gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

 

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After today th e next shot at widespread 90 readings (although some warmer spots may touch 90 between then) is next week Tue 7/17 - Fri 7/20.  Beyond there,, the  W.A.R shifts east and WC ROckies ridge explodes forcing  troughing into the lakes/Northeast.  This should setup the enhanced humid (wamr) and increased storm/rain chances for the 7/22 - 7/28 period.  Beyond there well see if the WAR can return or even link with WC ridge or if more WC ridging and EC troughing develops , 2013-ish...

 

 

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