Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 3:57 PM, NJwx85 said: Will be short lived, numerous showers are developing over NE NJ and SE NY. Expand that won't get me here. The stuff further south will maybe get me this eve. Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out. I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 2:58 PM, Poker2015 said: I'm reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hoping for a nice Saturday. Its the Quick Check Balloon Festival and the last couple years have been washouts or enough storms in the area that the balloons didn't go up. 10th year i'm having 50+ people at my house and I think we have seen the balloons go up 2 times that night, and never in my direction... Expand Hey, I'm having about 50 at my house too for this. Last year we had people on Saturday and they didn't go up. But of course on Sunday evening when we didn't have a party one landed 3 homes away. Nice to see another Branchburg person posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Pattern looks to continue-GFS dries us out Sunday but looks to get wet again next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 4:07 PM, Brian5671 said: Pattern looks to continue-GFS dries us out Sunday but looks to get wet again next week Expand Has been pretty dry past few days here...0.07 last 48 hours and rest of today looks dry too. Having a party for my grandfathers 99th birthday on Sunday so I hope it stays dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Just had thunder with the latest round of downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 4:04 PM, Brian5671 said: that won't get me here. The stuff further south will maybe get me this eve. Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out. I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east. Expand What can I say? You're in the rain hole. Down here it's been one of the wettest periods in recent memory, with the only exception being most of yesterday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 5:08 PM, NJwx85 said: What can I say? You're in the rain hole. Down here it's been one of the wettest periods in recent memory, with the only exception being most of yesterday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Expand these set ups almost always favor inland areas, this one no exception. Did get a 5 minute burst of heavy rain this AM that dropped .40 Getting just enough here and there... No need to water much this summer outside of a dry 3 weeks mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Next 12 hours on the 16z HRRR Shows widespread convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 4:07 PM, frankdp23 said: Hey, I'm having about 50 at my house too for this. Last year we had people on Saturday and they didn't go up. But of course on Sunday evening when we didn't have a party one landed 3 homes away. Nice to see another Branchburg person posting. Expand Thats always the case. I feel like every year they like launching them friday night, saturday morning for the 5k, and sunday night...Saturday night they have rarely gone up in the 10 years i've been in Branchburg, even though thats probably the most crowded day there. Maybe they focus more on the balloon glow that night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 4:04 PM, Brian5671 said: that won't get me here. The stuff further south will maybe get me this eve. Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out. I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east. Expand the batch over the delmarva appears to be dying out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 5:42 PM, Stormlover74 said: the batch over the delmarva appears to be dying out now Expand models got that part right....they nail BDR and points east tonight with new activity...models had the "jump zone" yesterday and looks like they were on to something. (this doesn't include the day time heating pop up activity we are seeing now inland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Some of these cells are dropping inch an hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 5:46 PM, Brian5671 said: models got that part right....they nail BDR and points east tonight with new activity...models had the "jump zone" yesterday and looks like they were on to something. (this doesn't include the day time heating pop up activity we are seeing now inland) Expand We have seen the jump many times. Im not sure of the mechanism that causes it. Inland areas do well with localized convection and then an organized area of convection shoots up from (I would think the Gulf Stream) and becomes an organized area of strataform rains for eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 5:46 PM, seanick said: Some of these cells are dropping inch an hour rates. Expand @seanick I have Radarscope too in vcp precip mode, but how do you enable precip that has fallen as is seen on your screencap? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 6:09 PM, sferic said: @seanick I have Radarscope too in vcp precip mode, but how do you enable precip that has fallen as is seen on your screencap? Thanks ! Expand I'm using the mobile android app. From the drop down list you select one hour rainfall totals. Then use the inspector tool and hover over the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Have had about 2.50" here last several days...pretty much in line with model projections up to this point for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Some lightning showing up with the Morris County cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Looking more and more likely that we end up with some light stratiform rains from the city east later. Thus totals are going to fall short of earlier forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 that cluster over delaware has a good chance at hitting us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Hopefully forky is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 We're in a bit of dry area, but as you can see, the moisture plume coming up from the mid-atlantic is still pointed right at our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 6:51 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looking more and more likely that we end up with some light stratiform rains from the city east later. Thus totals are going to fall short of earlier forecasts Expand for whatever reason, those echos are falling apart as they approach LI. Same thing happened Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 its f**king annoying with KDOX down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/25/2018 at 7:00 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Hopefully forky is rightHope he's right too, but all the heavy rains definitely lighten up as they approach our latitude.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 pouring rain here. Rain lasted 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 25, 2018 Author Share Posted July 25, 2018 Current temp 81/DP 75/RH 79% Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 so far 0.54” today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 lee goldberg had a graphic (futurecast) aka ****cast. of heavy showers and storms over the area from 8pm-3am. indont see that but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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