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July 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Yards are getting quite dry out here as we’ve not had much in the way of rain since the beginning of July. Luckily though there appears to be some chances tomorrow into the beginning of next week. Some models even have 4” in spots. But currently expecting about an inch or so.

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21 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

MKE had cloud debris all morning, I think snuck in a small amount of rain with the decaying storms, and is still making a late run at 90F (with their UHI environment aiding).  I’m surprised ORD and the Chicago area’s temps stalled due to a little cloud debris.

MKE cleared out more than Chicago later in the day.

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18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some areas south/west of the Quad Cities may have a shot at 100 tomorrow. Should be upper 90s at least.

With regard to this, I found an observation of 99/61 at MBY. In this case, MBY does not stand for "my back yard," but Moberly, MO. With this dew point, the heat index is (only) 100. However, it is most likely that the dew point in this area really more like 67-69, and the airport sensor is a few degrees off.

KMBY 132035Z AUTO 21010G17KT 10SM CLR 37/16 A3002 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE

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55 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Cedar Rapids was severe-warned in the last hour, but the heavy cell missed north.  I got nothing.

Picked up 0.86” from it and highest gust was probably 50mph. The SW side of CR has really gotten the shaft from every storm this summer.

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Got some nice boomers headed my way, although the severe stuff looks to miss just to the south.

This spring/summer (after the abominable cold went away) has featured no shortage of thunderstorms, just not much if anything predictably severe beyond Day 1 or chaseworthy. That's what saves it from being the worst summer weather in my memory, which was 2012 (unrelenting heat, but no thunderstorms let alone severe).

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Got some nice boomers headed my way, although the severe stuff looks to miss just to the south.

This spring/summer (after the abominable cold went away) has featured no shortage of thunderstorms, just not much if anything predictably severe beyond Day 1 or chaseworthy. That's what saves it from being the worst summer weather in my memory, which was 2012 (unrelenting heat, but no thunderstorms let alone severe).

DKB appears to be in line for the southern wave. First wave missed well to the north-west.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

SE MI... the land of boring... at least until the winter snow magnet kicks in.

We need some rain...but I'll take big winters and crappy severe anyday. Back in the late 1990s when we had a string of boring winters we had very active severe seasons. Seems long ago. Better get the snowmagnet a tune up so its ready to go once again in 3.5 months!!!

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21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We need some rain...but I'll take big winters and crappy severe anyday. Back in the late 1990s when we had a string of boring winters we had very active severe seasons. Seems long ago. Better get the snowmagnet a tune up so its ready to go once again in 3.5 months!!!

It's way out but at this point I'd say there are some positive signs for a decent winter, looking at how things are playing out with various indices and the early indications from the seasonal models. One potential spoiler could be the Nino... if it becomes more formidable into the moderate range (which some guidance is suggesting) then I'd get a little more uneasy about the prospects for a cold/snowy winter, but that doesn't automatically mean crappy winter.  

Anyway, probably my last post about winter for a few months.  ;)

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For those interested in severe weather,  NCEP is running the 36-hr HRRR, four times per day. It might have been interesting to have seen this in April or May. When severe weather is more active, I would be interested in seeing the 00z, 24hr forecast of the HRRR, as a supplement to the other main convecting-allowing models.

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