lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: View from our cottage this afternoon looking out on Chaumont Bay. Thunderheads associated with a storm over Oswego County barely visible on the horizon. Beautiful up there. Used to go to Clayton, NY every summer for vacation but haven’t been up there in 4 or 5 years. Definitely want to get back up there sometime soon as the Saint Lawrence is one of my favorite spots in all of Upstate NY. Watching the barges from the dock that seem like they’re 5 football fields long slowly move down the river is one of my favorite memories, along with the fishing, boating, watersports, shops in Clayton and A Bay. Enjoy your trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Nice line of storms gonna try and punch the lake shadow... Lets see what happens! lol... Pretty nice gust front just blew out ahead of the line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Beautiful up there. Used to go to Clayton, NY every summer for vacation but haven’t been up there in 4 or 5 years. Definitely want to get back up there sometime soon as the Saint Lawrence is one of my favorite spots in all of Upstate NY. Watching the barges from the dock that seem like they’re 5 football fields long slowly move down the river is one of my favorite memories, along with the fishing, boating, watersports, shops in Clayton and A Bay. Enjoy your trip! Thanks man. If we ever leave WNY it will be to move closer to our place on Chaumont. 3.5 hours is a bit long to make it every weekend in the summer, so we average about 5 trips. Harder to leave every time though. We make the 15 minute drive to Cape Vincent/Clayton often. I’ve started hiking on Wellsley Island the last couple years. Views of the St Lawerence river from some of the ridges on the island are unbelievable. And the weather along the St Lawerence is so changeable. Storms drive in from Canada in the blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice line of storms gonna try and punch the lake shadow... Lets see what happens! lol... Pretty nice gust front just blew out ahead of the line... . Can the mighty lake shadow finally be defeated?? That’s a stout line of storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 I think we got one here! Great line to track that gust front is plowing right across the lake and very well defined on radar. Crazy it went from full sun to dark as night in 15 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I think we got one here! Great line to track that gust front is plowing right across the lake and very well defined on radar. Crazy it went from full sun to dark as night in 15 minutes... . Last few frames on radar show them falling apart, and fast. Will be lucky to get a few showers out of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 Sorry guys I hope that band dies. Going to concert at Darien lake at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 13 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Good to know there’s an Air BB up there. I’m just about ready to buy a 4Runner and will hopefully make a trek or two up there during ‘the weather’. Get ready and welcome aboard! Thanks! This seems like a great group to talk weather with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Absolutely no relief in sight as far as I can see. But man what a stable pattern we are in, huh? Im wondering if even aTropical System can budge this beast, WOW!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Absolutely no relief in sight as far as I can see. But man what a stable pattern we are in, huh? Im wondering if even aTropical System can budge this beast, WOW! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Looks like a more extended cooldown (4-5 days instead of 2-3), and when the ridge reasserts itself, it'll be subject to climatological factors. +10F in mid-September barely gets you to 80F in Buffalo. I'd love to get this ridge out of here. I'm telling myself that the models haven't fully recognized the effect of tropical systems in the western Atlantic, and by the 17th or 18th we'll enter real autumn weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Its steering Gordon all the way up into Iowa, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 4, 2018 Author Share Posted September 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Its steering Gordon all the way up into Iowa, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Then gets caught up and thrown our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 4, 2018 Author Share Posted September 4, 2018 That cool down that was showing up is virtually gone. Looks like the month will be well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_e.html Lake Erie's whole volume temperature, 71.8, now tops that of the last 2 year's. If we keep up the warm fall trend, it could make for an interesting November and December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_e.html Lake Erie's whole volume temperature, 71.8, now tops that of the last 2 year's. If we keep up the warm fall trend, it could make for an interesting November and December Erie heats up and cools down really fast. I have given up on thinking that hot summer/early fall would have a big impact on snow a couple months later. Our best case scenario for lake influence is for extreme warmth through October then a pattern change to cold shots in mid November (after the leaves have fallen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Sitting at 85 deg at BUF with sun about to set. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 3 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_e.html Lake Erie's whole volume temperature, 71.8, now tops that of the last 2 year's. If we keep up the warm fall trend, it could make for an interesting November and December It matters more for the deeper lakes than it does for Erie. Erie can have 1-2 cool weeks in Oct/Nov and be below average just like that. For the other great lakes warmer summers/falls definitely matter for lake effect in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Wow talk about waking up the tropics! First Gordon a high end tropical storm hits Mississippi last evening and some of those remnants might get entrained to our region early next week and now Florence way out in the Atlantic is suddenly being forecast to head due and and slam the Carolina coast at 192 hours out. Has good agreement on all models with variability in strength and exact location of US landfall. Good thing it's that far out in time and the track could still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Looks like a pretty nice cool down to me, average temperatures still in the mid-upper 70”s, going to be an enjoyable several days weather wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Wow talk about waking up the tropics! First Gordon a high end tropical storm hits Mississippi last evening and some of those remnants might get entrained to our region early next week and now Florence way out in the Atlantic is suddenly being forecast to head due and and slam the Carolina coast at 192 hours out. Has good agreement on all models with variability in strength and exact location of US landfall. Good thing it's that far out in time and the track could still change. Peak Hurricane season is the best. Going to be tough to top last years though. Definitely an interesting next couple weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like a pretty nice cool down to me, average temperatures still in the mid-upper 70”s, going to be an enjoyable several days weather wise... Big fan of this forecast!!! It's been a great summer but it is time to start the trend to milder days and cooler nights by mid month...hopefully the forecast verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 A nice swamp ass day going on lol. Dew point in Syracuse right now is 77 wow. This humidity this summer has been horrible, the cool down this weekend is gonna feel like winter haha. And watching the tropics now also, Florence track keeps getting closer to the east coast, i have family that lives in myrtle beach so hopefully it stay's away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 It will be interesting to see if Florence doesn't go out to sea. I'd say 90/10 ratio right now it goes north up into the Atlantic vs landfall. It's already pretty far north for there to be a landfall historically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: It will be interesting to see if Florence doesn't go out to sea. I'd say 90/10 ratio right now it goes north up into the Atlantic vs landfall. It's already pretty far north for there to be a landfall historically speaking. I agree, seems far more likely it will stay out to sea, potentially affecting Bermuda. That said, the F storms have a knack of whacking the Carolina's..... IE Fran and Floyd. I would love to see Florence roar into the Carolinas as a major hurricane and steam up this way. Just give me some decent winds and a couple inches of tropical rain......there hasnt been any exciting weather in my backyard since the windstorm the first week of May. I need something, I'm dying here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Long range euro (12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Nice “potential “ soaking from post TS Gordon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 Really intense storm going through right now. Just severe warned. * At 1119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Derby, or near Hamburg, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Last night’s Euro for Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 On 9/6/2018 at 8:31 AM, wolfie09 said: Last night’s Euro for Monday/Tuesday Agrees with HPC. I figure 2-5" of rain across most of this forum within next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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