BuffaloWeather Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 7 hours ago, WNash said: That’s awesome! My friends are camping in eastern Iceland now. They say it’s actually sunny and nice there, instead of wet and chilly like in Reykjavik. Yeah we’re exploring all 3 coasts, just not the north. It was nice and sunny on southern coast yesterday. Today we’re doing the golden circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 The 90+ weather doesn't agree with me at all but look on the bright side come fall/winter when we have a nice warm lake primed for some nice lake effect. I think Erie is close to record temps at 74, 75 being the record I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, Vicarious said: The 90+ weather doesn't agree with me at all but look on the bright side come fall/winter when we have a nice warm lake primed for some nice lake effect. I think Erie is close to record temps at 74, 75 being the record I believe. A warmer is better than a cooler lake, but the lake cools down so quickly in the fall that it would take a very rare early cold snap or a very warm late fall for it to make any difference in LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 12 hours ago, WNash said: A warmer is better than a cooler lake, but the lake cools down so quickly in the fall that it would take a very rare early cold snap or a very warm late fall for it to make any difference in LES. true, come jan it's not much of a difference but can spice up Nov and Dec or thats what I tell myself to stay positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 Just took a peek at the radar and that storm over Cattaraugus county immediately jumped out at me. Very explosive growth, slightly right moving, hook echo-ish. Very surprised it didn’t have any warning. Looked potentially tornadic to me. The hills obscured the critical region of the velocity data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Just got back from Iceland, the best country on the planet. I climbed the largest glacier in Europe (drink water right from one of the mini waterfalls on it), got to see Seals swimming in a lagoon, sunken volcanoes, exploding geysers, black sand beaches, gigantic waterfalls around every corner, huge cliffs overlooking the ocean, just breathtaking stuff. Highly recommend it to anyone looking for a travel destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Nice to see we are in time of year where we can get nocturnal thunderstorm of lake erie. Lake is warm enough now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 https://www.weather.gov/buf/20100724_Tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Nice to see we are in time of year where we can get nocturnal thunderstorm of lake erie. Lake is warm enough now It barely has rained in the Metro. The lake is still killing convection. Outside the lake shadow, storms are popping, but not in the lee of the lake. It has been just unbelievably dry in most of the Metro. Less than an inch of rain at my house since late May, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Today was the best chance all month and we have just had a quick sprinkle. At least I haven’t needed to mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, WNash said: It barely has rained in the Metro. The lake is still killing convection. Outside the lake shadow, storms are popping, but not in the lee of the lake. It has been just unbelievably dry in most of the Metro. Less than an inch of rain at my house since late May, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Today was the best chance all month and we have just had a quick sprinkle. At least I haven’t needed to mow. Yeah, Lake Erie kills convection until the air going over is colder than the lake. That hasn't happened yet this year as its been in the 80s/90s all season. That usually starts in September not July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Man we just can’t catch a break In Oswego county, all precipitation “dries” up or slides SE every event..So much for 80% chance of heavy rain with 1”+ of rainfall..Still in the process of moving and my property up in Altmar is absolutely bone dry, even more so then Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Buffalo ended up with a trace yesterday, and probably today will go down with a T as well. We’ll probably be in the lowest drought category in Thursday’s update. No good bets for significant rain through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 3 hours ago, WNash said: Buffalo ended up with a trace yesterday, and probably today will go down with a T as well. We’ll probably be in the lowest drought category in Thursday’s update. No good bets for significant rain through Sunday. Sorry to hear most of you got shafted. The west side of ROC had some very intense storms for about 40 minutes yesterday around 415. We picked up 1.9" in that amount of time with some minor tree damage and street flooding. Was quite the gullywasher and just what we needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Sorry to hear most of you got shafted. The west side of ROC had some very intense storms for about 40 minutes yesterday around 415. We picked up 1.9" in that amount of time with some minor tree damage and street flooding. Was quite the gullywasher and just what we needed. Definitely pretty ugly from Buffalo metro to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 1 hour ago, WNash said: Definitely pretty ugly from Buffalo metro to the north. The lake shadow has been working overtime all summer. I would have thought the water temps were warm enough by now to limit its influence, but yesterday was another great example of precip being dried up NE of L Erie and enhanced to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 This would be nice, Obviously could use it, granted 5-7 days out on the goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Unbelievable. I wonder if the persistence of the lake shadow, despite warm lake temps, is the result of the significantly above average summer temps? Hot upper 80s F on land and a 75F lake supports lake breezes more than a 75F lake and a climatologically average 80F on land, and it's months too early to have delta Ts that promote convection off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 If I remember, we have had BN precip in the Buffalo metro for a good part of the last few summers. I think we got out of the dry stretch last year with a NW flow event in late July, and there was a stalled warm front that broke an actual moderate drought two or three years ago. I love Buffalo summers, but the precip deficit is making the vegetation look brown and baked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 I mean, just look at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 6 hours ago, WNash said: I mean, just look at this Almost all Buffalo Summers are dry. That's why in my opinion we have the best summers anywhere in the USA. 80-90 and sunny everyday is prime summer weather. We got into an extreme drought I believe 2 years ago. But yeah May to August we rarely get sustained heavy rain due to the lake shadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Almost all Buffalo Summers are dry. That's why in my opinion we have the best summers anywhere in the USA. 80-90 and sunny everyday is prime summer weather. We got into an extreme drought I believe 2 years ago. But yeah May to August we rarely get sustained heavy rain due to the lake shadow. Much of WNY is in a moderate drought now, so it's not just an issue of lake influence. The stacked low over the upper Midwest has drought-buster written all over it, but it won't make any progress against this persistent ridge. Part of it is bad luck, and part of it is just a stubborn pattern, but we are consistently getting summers that are more dry than normal over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Drought update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Gfs Euro Wpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 13 dead from a storm in Missouri while boats were on the water. One cap sized. Can't believe stuff like this still happens. It's like those little party boats that go out on lake Erie. https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/us/missouri-boat-incident/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs Euro Wpc That should be a pretty good droughtbuster for most of the areas that are currently in moderate drought. It looks like the Niagara Frontier will be squeezed by both lows without being in on the precip, but I'm hoping we have enough medium odds chances during the week that we'll get 1-1.5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 13 dead from a storm in Missouri while boats were on the water. One cap sized. Can't believe stuff like this still happens. It's like those little party boats that go out on lake Erie. https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/us/missouri-boat-incident/index.html The videos of the chop are incredible. How sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Much needed inch of rain today in Altmar, about 1.25” total since yesterday.. More on tap over the next couple days.. A prolonged stretch of unsettled weather will feature locally heavy rain Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts during that period will likely range from 1 to 3 inches, with the highest amounts east of Rochester and toward the Tug Hill. Training showers and thunderstorms could locally produce higher amounts. Localized flooding may be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 Buf NWS had 80%+ chance of rain from Monday-Thurs in the forecast. Looks like a dud to me. Most of the rain will be across eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Buf NWS had 80%+ chance of rain from Monday-Thurs in the forecast. Looks like a dud to me. Most of the rain will be across eastern NY. Yeah, very hit or miss setup. Some places will get 3-5 inches while others get less than a half inch total. KROC got .5 yesterday which was certainly better than nothing. If we can tack on another .5 today and tomorrow we will be doing alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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