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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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26 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I would rather have the colder pattern hang off for a couple more weeks. By mid october the lake effect snow machine can easily produce 6"+ snow events

One of my favorite lake snow chases was in mid October of 2012 (I believe) in the Tug Hill where I witnessed 6"+ of snow on the ground and pretty heavy rates of over 1-2"/hr during the daytime. Definitely liking what the long range models are showing and am thinking that would could see an early season lake effect snow event by mid October somewhere in our forum, tons of cold air over Canada for this early in the season. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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12 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

One of my favorite lake snow chases was in mid October of 2012 (I believe) in the Tug Hill where I witnessed 6"+ of snow on the ground and pretty heavy rates of over 1-2"/hr during the daytime. Definitely liking what the long range models are showing and am thinking that would could see an early season lake effect snow event by mid October somewhere in our forum, tons of cold air over Canada for this early in the season. 

It is going to take awhile to get the really cold stuff this far south so early, but as long as we're building it up in Canada it is definitely a good sign. For some reason people always think October Siberian Snow cover anomalies help bring colder/snowier winters here, but I really don't think there is any correlation between the two. However, I do think there is some correlation between Canadian snow cover. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It is going to take awhile to get the really cold stuff this far south so early, but as long as we're building it up in Canada it is definitely a good sign. For some reason people always think October Siberian Snow cover anomalies help bring colder/snowier winters here, but I really don't think there is any correlation between the two. However, I do think there is some correlation between Canadian snow cover. 

I agree with this...in fact I would be willing to say that this October snow advance in Siberia really got legs after 2009-10 winter that was exceptionally cold in the east. Beyond that year I too believe that what happens in Siberia may have a link to the PV strength but I don't believe it's correlated necessarily with our winter specifically say a weak El Nino or weak La Nina would.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this...in fact I would be willing to say that this October snow advance in Siberia really got legs after 2009-10 winter that was exceptionally cold in the east. Beyond that year I too believe that what happens in Siberia may have a link to the PV strength but I don't believe it's correlated necessarily with our winter specifically say a weak El Nino or weak La Nina would.

Exactly. We do not want a strong PV, a weak one similar to the 2013-2014 winter is what we want. As mentioned by Ventrice already, the PV is looking to get disrupted early this year. Here is Cowens updated blog post from the 21st.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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49 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this...in fact I would be willing to say that this October snow advance in Siberia really got legs after 2009-10 winter that was exceptionally cold in the east. Beyond that year I too believe that what happens in Siberia may have a link to the PV strength but I don't believe it's correlated necessarily with our winter specifically say a weak El Nino or weak La Nina would.

CPC also just updated their temp. outlook with a discussion. Looks like they decided to lower forecasted temps to coincide with weak Nino.  

FOR LEADS 2-6 (NDJ 2018-19 THROUGH MAM 2019), THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE 
BASED ON THE PREMISE OF A WEAK EL NINO, AND CONSIDERATION OF A WIDE ARRAY OF 
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS (NOTED EARLIER). THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO DEPICT 
THE ANTICIPATED WAXING AND WANING OF EC COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH 
REPRESENTS THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THESE SEASONAL LEADS. DURING 
THESE SAME SEASONS, THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECLINE 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING NDJ AND DJF, BEFORE FAVORING 
EC IN JFM AND FMA 2019. THE PREDICTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF EC DIMINISHES ACROSS 
THIS AREA IN MAM 2019. THE CALIBRATED NMME, THE FINAL-CON, AND THE LEGACY CON, 
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF NON-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES, MEANING EITHER EC OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH 
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EL NINO INTENSITY DURING THE AUTUMN AND 
WINTER, IT WAS DECIDED AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR EC OVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS PREDICTED WARM EVENT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MOST 
NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY PROJECTIONS INDICATE.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

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mississaugasnow

mississaugasnow

Posted
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any first guesses for first freeze and snow? 

Toronto: First freeze October 9th/ first snow October 15th 

Buffalo: First freeze October 9th/first snow October 10th 

Rochester: First Freeze October 9th/first snow October 21st  

 

as you can tell I think some of that arctic air building out west in the Canadian prairies finally pushes the bermuda high slightly east in mid october and has some staying power. Im thinking if it can make it this far east, we would be looking at highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s. Though were right on the boundary of the bremuda high and we could easily see ourselves staying in the 60s/70s while the western lakes turn cold. 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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58 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

any first guesses for first freeze and snow? 

Toronto: First freeze October 9th/ first snow October 15th 

Buffalo: First freeze October 9th/first snow October 10th 

Rochester: First Freeze October 9th/first snow October 21st  

 

as you can tell I think some of that arctic air building out west in the Canadian prairies finally pushes the bermuda high slightly east in mid october and has some staying power. Im thinking if it can make it this far east, we would be looking at highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s. Though were right on the boundary of the bremuda high and we could easily see ourselves staying in the 60s/70s while the western lakes turn cold. 

Toronto: Freeze October 14th / Snow 14th

Buffalo: Freeze October 15th / Snow 13th 

Rochester: Freeze October 27th / Snow October 13th

Syracuse: Freeze October 15th / Snow 14th

Watertown: Freeze October 6th /Snow October 6th

Albany: Freeze October 27th / Snow October 14th

Binghamton: Freeze October 7th / Snow October 7th

 

If we’re talking Freeze not frost then I think many will see snowflakes in the air before we go sub 32 degrees. Could see some rain mixed with cat paws with a temp of like 35-37 degrees without the actual temp ever dropping below 32 until we get a nice radiational cooling night. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
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So we now have a "Golden Snowdrift award"? lol (A little outdated, does not include last year)

Quote

The tallest building in the tiny Oswego County hamlet of Redfield is a quaint wooden house of worship. The steeple of the Redfield Grace Fellowship Church reaches maybe 40 feet off the ground.

Imagine snow piled up all the way up to the base of that high steeple.

That's how much snow fell last fall, winter and spring in Redfield — 350.5 inches, more than 29 feet.

That prodigious total has earned Redfield the USA Today Network's first annual Golden Snowdrift Award as the snowiest place in one of the snowiest regions on Earth, the Great Lakes.

“An award? That is so exciting!” said Carolyn Yerdon, the official observer for the National Weather Service in Redfield. “Thanks for acknowledging our little town.”

Redfield rests on the Tug Hill plateau, an elevated area above the east end of Lake Ontario. Tug Hill lies directly in the path of the roiling lake-effect snow bands that develop over the lake and deposit sometimes-unbelievable quantities of snow in a short period of time.

Last year, for instance, little Redfield — the entire town has a population of just 570, with a fraction of those living in the hamlet — got six feet of snow in the first four days of February.

That gave it a lead over all Great Lakes competitors that it never relinquished. Second and third place in the USA Today Network contest went to Osceola, Lewis County (303.9 inches) and Houghton, Michigan (285 inches).

The huge snowdrifts that pile up in the Great Lakes region are due in large part to lake-effect snow.

When cold air passes over the relatively warm lake water, moisture is wicked upward into the atmosphere and form snowflakes. If the winds align just right, band-shaped clouds dense with snow are generated. The longer the stretch of open water over which the winds pass, the bigger and more potent the bands.

The most impressive snow belts are downwind of the longest stretches of water:

  • The south and eastern shores of Lake Superior in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and parts of Ontario, Canada
  • The eastern shore of Lake Michigan
  • The Bruce Peninsula in Ontario that separates Lake Huron proper from Georgian Bay
  • The eastern end of Lake Erie to the south of Buffalo 
  • The lightly populated areas east of Lake Ontario

 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Theres a line building in WNY that may garner enough energy before passing through to generate some strong to perhaps severe storms this evening around these parts. For the most part, things have been quiet today but that may change, especially if the Sun comes out, which will only add gas.

I think the GFS is once again, jumping the gun on such an abrupt change in our pattern but I could be wrong. Havent even looked at the EURO as I usually dont start to really pay attention till early Oct, bjtvI still think it's a bit too soon.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

We have had several bouts of heavy rain today, it’s over an inch liquid so far, picked up about 1/2” yesterday as well..

I had such wicked lightning last night that all my solar lights turned on haha, not sure I’ve seen that before..

We had some decent thunder here as well. Nothing severe though. Allegheny had a tornado warning this morning. 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Top analogs JB is using this yr are 2 of my all time favorite winters. 02-03,14-15 with 02-03 by far, being my favorite, with Winter hitting in Nov and sticking till March and then boom, Spring!

It snowed 31 days straight in Syracuse. Trust me, I've looked it up several times, lol. When I say snowed, I mean a trace or better through the month and that's exactly what happened for the whole month of January. I remember cause I had just moved to the area, my parents visited and they said never again, lol. They said I'd have to visit them in the Winter, if I wanted to see them, lol!

There was a WNW-NW flow for 40 days ststraight it seemed like with a spray of flurries and embedded squalls effecting the area for an extended period of time and it was Great!

Everything was completely snow/ice covered and when I say everything, I mean everything.

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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So while I struggle with the simple task of attaching a file to this thread I will point anyone interested to the 12z GFS at hour 240. It's a quick shot but the GFS has been consistent inverting to bring a definite shot of cold weather for a day or 2 around the Oct 6 through 8 timeframe.

I'm going to be camping in the Adirondacks that weekend, so it's safe to say I'm keeping an eye on that cold shot. Hoping to see some snow on the peaks, but we'll see.

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Polarbear

Polarbear

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Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50

Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...

either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??

thanks

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50
Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...
either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??
thanks
Its looking like a good bet for precip both periods with the latter being the more pronounced rain event of the 2. The first period can change in your favor as there is still time for changes but a battle zone is going to be setting up the next 2 weeks and who knows where that boundary will lie.
I do know one thing, that cold shot the GFS has been advertising and another poster just mentioned, would no doubt bring our firat flakes of the season throughout all of NY but a better shot would be in the belts to the ESE of LO and the same for Erie. It would however be a 24hr shot, at best, and can just as much, be flatout wrong, which we've seen time and time again with the GFS in the mid range guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips entirely the other way as its bound to lose it somewhere, lol. Good'ol GFS!!

I'm just loving the look of the upper air flow which is already quite blocks looking in both the ATL and the PAC which is key. When both oceans work in tandem is when we experience some of our best Winters and it's looking that way real early in the game it looks like. My fear is getting a huge outbreak in October and Novembernonly to be replaced, just in time for the holidays, by a warmer period, relatively speaking, but nonetheless, I've seen it happen way too many times and I dont wanna see it happen this ur but this ur is different. Everything is in our favor, at least early on it looks like, but that can and will probably change. One can only hope that Wibter hits and sticks but those Winters are few and far between.

After I made that last post about loving the winter of 14-15 I watched a movie, Captive with Ryan Reynolds and it just showed how bad that Winter was. In WNY, where the movie was shot, showed scenes throughout Niagara County completely blitzed with snow and it seemed as though whenever they shot their scenes, it was pounding snow, lol, and it was COLD and you could also tell it was LES, lol, well at least us weird snow lovers could.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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14 hours ago, Polarbear said:

Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50

Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...

either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??

thanks

The 10th-12th is too far out to judge precipitation right now. But for Oct 3-5 

After that...the medium range guidance is in loose agreement on the
aforementioned area of low pressure ejecting northeastward across
Ontario/Quebec and pushing its attendant cold front into or through
our region...however much disagreement exists with respect to the
timing of this boundary. As of this writing...the GFS is at least a
solid 12 hours faster than its Canadian and European counterparts...
both of which now do not bring this boundary into our area until just
after the end of this period. Faced with these differences and the
resultant high degree of forecast uncertainty...for now have just
broadbrushed some lower to mid chance range PoPs for both Wednesday
night and Thursday...while indicating continued somewhat above
normal temperatures.

Here is day 5-7 QPF from HPC

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1538139994

I'd say if it does rain it doesn't look to be too bad. Temps around 70. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Its looking like a good bet for precip both periods with the latter being the more pronounced rain event of the 2. The first period can change in your favor as there is still time for changes but a battle zone is going to be setting up the next 2 weeks and who knows where that boundary will lie.
I do know one thing, that cold shot the GFS has been advertising and another poster just mentioned, would no doubt bring our firat flakes of the season throughout all of NY but a better shot would be in the belts to the ESE of LO and the same for Erie. It would however be a 24hr shot, at best, and can just as much, be flatout wrong, which we've seen time and time again with the GFS in the mid range guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips entirely the other way as its bound to lose it somewhere, lol. Good'ol GFS!!

I'm just loving the look of the upper air flow which is already quite blocks looking in both the ATL and the PAC which is key. When both oceans work in tandem is when we experience some of our best Winters and it's looking that way real early in the game it looks like. My fear is getting a huge outbreak in October and Novembernonly to be replaced, just in time for the holidays, by a warmer period, relatively speaking, but nonetheless, I've seen it happen way too many times and I dont wanna see it happen this ur but this ur is different. Everything is in our favor, at least early on it looks like, but that can and will probably change. One can only hope that Wibter hits and sticks but those Winters are few and far between.

After I made that last post about loving the winter of 14-15 I watched a movie, Captive with Ryan Reynolds and it just showed how bad that Winter was. In WNY, where the movie was shot, showed scenes throughout Niagara County completely blitzed with snow and it seemed as though whenever they shot their scenes, it was pounding snow, lol, and it was COLD and you could also tell it was LES, lol, well at least us weird snow lovers could.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I like the look as well. The PV is looking to get disrupted early and often in the next few weeks. First snowflakes possibly next weekend over higher elevations? That SE ridge is going to be tough to budge. The northern plains will have plenty of chances of show the next few weeks. The 14-15 winter was just brutal for cold/snow in Upstate. I remember that February being like -10 or something below normal. Lake Erie froze really early that year (1st week of January I think) 

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