gravitylover Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 6 hours ago, seanick said: I am currently out west in Arizona chasing monsoons. It is pretty amazing. I bet you're also getting some pretty good shots of the Perseid meteor showers. My favorite monsoon events when I lived out there were always at high elevations. I remember some devastatingly heavy rainfall periods in the mountains above Flagstaff and along the Continental Divide in Colorado the chaos was intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 EURO WEEKLIES give us two more weeks of wet and three more weeks of AN temperatures, then BN both ways. The RWTT has AN temps. all the way covered by the EURO WEEKLIES, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 We are now 100 days out from Thanksgiving 2018. How time flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +3.5[79.5]. Should be +3.7[79.4] by the 22nd. Sorry. Should have been in August Discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 On Saturday I’m headed off to Ohau for ten days. I hope to catch some glimpses of the lava flows as we fly past the big island. Does anyone know from how far away the eruptions can be seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 ^^ I would think that would be dependent on what's going on at that moment. If it's spewing you'll see it from a reasonable distance, if it's night time I expect that you'd see the ground glowing from fairly far out also. From most of what I've seen it's just oozing or a smoky gas release so that would be hard to see unless it's a really smoky moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 For perspective: +10F ocean surface temperature anomalies are absolutely enormous. We've been seeing similarly huge departures from average near#Scandanavia in the #BalticSea this summer, where an exceptionally intense multi-month heatwave has baked the region. #CAwx #CAheattwitter.com/NWSSanDiego/st… 12:16 PM - 13 Aug 2018 San Diego has hit at least 83 degrees the last 16 straight days. That has NEVER happened before, at least since local records began in 1874, says Mark Moede of NWS. Longest streak of 83-degree or hotter days before this year? 10, in 1979, 1978, 1965 and 1939. #sandiegoweather 9:13 AM - 14 Aug 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record. The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months. Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us. Hot finish to Aug. and a hot Labor Day weekend. We'll see. Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers. 1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old. We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record. The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months. Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us. Hot finish to Aug. and a hot Labor Day weekend. We'll see. Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers. 1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old. We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates. I agree with your thoughts regarding always safer to predict AN, In a recent newsletter Larry Cosgrove mentioned something about the need to factor in global warming in to long range forecast. I've never been a fan of using the 30 year data subset. I think it would be better to compare the current to the entire set of data for a particular site. By doing so it will provide a much better representation of temp trends over a longer period of time. I'm also not a fan of using analog years in long term forecasting. And I think the use of analog years is one of the primary reasons why so many long range forecasts fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 On 8/15/2018 at 6:04 AM, CIK62 said: Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record. The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months. Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us. Hot finish to Aug. and a hot Labor Day weekend. We'll see. Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers. 1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old. We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates. Keeping it as is doesn’t really impact forecasting though. Models can be programmed to de-emphasize climo, and forecasters should obviously be factoring in overall warming. Acknowledging the deviation from the norm and whether to lift a finger to address it is a political fight, so why change the record keeping? Think if you changed the averages to annual updates the only benefactor would be the crowd that is still arguing against the fact that something unusual is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Not so sure upper 70s to low 80s is shocking but will feel nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 was winter's back broken when it hit 80 in february? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: was winter's back broken when it hit 80 in february? Exactly. High dews are my least favorite weather without a doubt but it is what it is, mother nature is going to do whatever she wants, whenever she wants, just look at Christmas Eve 2016. That said, you can bet your arse that I'll track the lower dews as they march our way and embrace them when they get here. Wait, maybe I should just make a lame joke about broke back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: was winter's back broken when it hit 80 in february? That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that. Well that certainly is another look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: strong signal for another intense ridging episode starting around the 25th Going to ocean city md that week starting the 26th. Gimme the ridge please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Looks like I have an outside chance of at least a glancing blow from Hurricane Lane in Ohau, however it looks like the guidance has been keeping it just South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 If you were going to do a beach day on the east end of LI would you want to be there tomorrow, Monday, or Tuesday? I can go either day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2018 Author Share Posted August 19, 2018 On 8/16/2018 at 3:56 PM, Juliancolton said: That's how I've remembered it. Half of my snow fell after 2/21, but it was always quick to melt, and the cold air never returned after that warm stretch. Seven of Feb's final ten days had 50F or warmer highs imby, and I had no more subfreezing highs or single-digit lows post-death ridge. I can't imagine trying to argue that winter took control again after that. waaaaaaaahhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 Just now, forkyfork said: waaaaaaaahhhhhhhh eh? I didn't say it was a bad thing. I think that 80-ish degree day was around the time that @IrishRob17 and I were talking about how tired of winter we were getting. Sounds like the early end to winter really had a lasting impact on your psyche, my condolences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2018 Author Share Posted August 19, 2018 i have a snowball in the freezer covered in frozen tears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: eh? I didn't say it was a bad thing. I think that 80-ish degree day was around the time that @IrishRob17 and I were talking about how tired of winter we were getting. Sounds like the early end to winter really had a lasting impact on your psyche, my condolences. I definitely get to a point in each season when I say ok, on to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: I definitely get to a point in each season when I say ok, on to the next Yup. Sometimes I think it would be nice if the seasons were about 33% shorter than they are. Except fall, which should last longer. Maybe Elon Musk can make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: i have a snowball in the freezer covered in frozen tears Hold on to it, Forky. Instead of having a contest to guess the date of the first or largest or most intense snow or winter storm, we could have one to guess the date of the biggest bust. The prize is in “F” mans freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 The latest 2010's extreme rainfall event. Record or near record one day rainfall for Wisconsin may have been broken just west of Madison. Detailed gauge reports will begin rolling inpic.twitter.com/989V9QHiMB 12:35 AM - 21 Aug 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 One year ago today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The tropical pattern this summer was tough on businesses at the shore. Constant rain playing havoc with local summer businesses. @clarkfourakerreports cbsloc.al/2Mprhgw 1:34 PM - 19 Aug 2018 Constant Rain Playing Havoc With Local Summer Businesses Most weekends this summer have been punctuated with precipitation, vast amounts of rain that have ruined plans. It has also dampened profits for business that rely on the summer rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 NY AQUARIUM has been packed here in Coney Island since the new shark exhibit opened July 01. Rain did not stop the spectators from coming. Traffic Cops needed weekdays and weekends at the parking lot entrance/exit. Do not know about CI in general however. One Friday night fireworks exhibition was cancelled and some others poorly attended, because of weather uncertainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 This would disqualify the NYC ASOS. The NWS needs your help documenting the record breaking rainfall event. We are having trouble finding a rain gauge that captured the event located in a good location, away from bldgs and trees. Anybody know a friend that measured 12+" of rain the other night? #DCFloods#wiwx View details · The general rule of thumb is that the gauge should be twice as far from an object as that object is tall. We are looking for locations from Middleton and West Madison to Cross Plains. Please help us document a new state 24-hour rainfall record. #DCFloods #wiwx #swiwx 5:11 PM - 23 Aug 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 My forecast, according to the Dark Sky app. It’s usually accurate, but, a low of 80? Lol not happening, at least not next week, maybe next summer. Those mid 90’s are suspect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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