2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

[Amped]

Josh measured 968mb unofficially and got in the eye, so it had a higher pressure than Florence at landfall and still had 120mph winds.

Seems the storm was able to shrink on final approach rather than weaken. And the cloud pattern didn't resemble a storm battling a lot of shear.

 

[bluewave]

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/remote-hawaiian-island-wiped-off-map-by-hurricane-walaka-french-frigate-shoal-destroyed-storm-surge-monk-seal/115634

Wednesday, October 24, 2018, 11:00 AM - University of Hawaii scientist Chip Fletcher knew East Island was going to be gone one day. He just didn't expect it to be this week.

Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map by Hurricane Walaka, one of the nine tropical cyclones worldwide to reach Category 5 strength in 2018. A news release from the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument confirmed "significant changes" to parts of the French Frigate Shoals in the wake of Walaka, which was a Category 4 hurricane with winds near 220 km/h when it swept across the chain on October 3.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

On 10/25/2018 at 9:08 AM, bluewave said:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/remote-hawaiian-island-wiped-off-map-by-hurricane-walaka-french-frigate-shoal-destroyed-storm-surge-monk-seal/115634

Wednesday, October 24, 2018, 11:00 AM - University of Hawaii scientist Chip Fletcher knew East Island was going to be gone one day. He just didn't expect it to be this week.

Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map by Hurricane Walaka, one of the nine tropical cyclones worldwide to reach Category 5 strength in 2018. A news release from the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument confirmed "significant changes" to parts of the French Frigate Shoals in the wake of Walaka, which was a Category 4 hurricane with winds near 220 km/h when it swept across the chain on October 3.

Nice to see they got it right. The CNN version said the island is underwater. And then went on about rising sea levels. I’m all for climate change awareness but blatant miss reporting like that does no help the cause.

[Windspeed]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice to see they got it right. The CNN version said the island is underwater. And then went on about rising sea levels. I’m all for climate change awareness but blatant miss reporting like that does no help the cause

But who got what right here? Are you are singling out CNN for stating the island is underwater or just sea level rise? As for the the first, the opening line of the Gaurdian video states the island has "disappeared"; and The Weather Network article states "Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map."

 

As for sea level rise, I'm not getting into climate change rhetoric or debate in this thread between the associations of such, especially since nearly every report like this universally mentions it now. But since you seem to be targeting it with respect to the CNN article, it's worth noting that the scientist himself, Dr Chip Fletcher, brought it up: "The probability of occurrences like this goes up with climate change." As it happens, Dr. Fletcher specializes in research on rising sea levels:

Quote

His research focuses on Pacific paleo-sea level history, beach processes, and modeling the impacts of past, present and future sea level rise on island environments and communities.

Look, I understand bad reporting needs to be called out. But I'm not getting the CNN bashing here when every other article is on the same source.

[yoda]

So... TS Xavier has formed...

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

So... TS Xavier has formed...

Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018

For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed
over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates
from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial
intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the
"X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.

No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical
storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity
is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier
should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong
upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the
cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the
tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or
so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already
near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By
early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment
will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.

It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,
but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving
generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending
over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to
turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has
been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which
now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of
Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the
cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it
weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its
ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC
forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through
48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

On 10/26/2018 at 1:35 PM, Windspeed said:

But who got what right here? Are you are singling out CNN for stating the island is underwater or just sea level rise? As for the the first, the opening line of the Gaurdian video states the island has "disappeared"; and The Weather Network article states "Researchers confirmed this week that East Island, a remote part of the Hawaiian chain, was washed off the map."

 

As for sea level rise, I'm not getting into climate change rhetoric or debate in this thread between the associations of such, especially since nearly every report like this universally mentions it now. But since you seem to be targeting it with respect to the CNN article, it's worth noting that the scientist himself, Dr Chip Fletcher, brought it up: "The probability of occurrences like this goes up with climate change." As it happens, Dr. Fletcher specializes in research on rising sea levels:

Look, I understand bad reporting needs to be called out. But I'm not getting the CNN bashing here when every other article is on the same source.

It’s all in the wording. In regards to what actually happened to the island. It was washed away. It’s underwater is an oversimplification. Not every event is directly or fully attributable to climate change. That’s all, I’m not CNN basher at all, what does bother me is stretching the truth to push an agenda, one which I happen to agree with. 

[Windspeed]

It’s all in the wording. In regards to what actually happened to the island. It was washed away. It’s underwater is an oversimplification. Not every event is directly or fully attributable to climate change. That’s all, I’m not CNN basher at all, what does bother me is stretching the truth to push an agenda, one which I happen to agree with.

I agree about the bad wording, but my point was that the majority of outlets essentially reported the same thing. The attributed scientist was using the island as a laboratory to study sea level rise. Obviously the island is underwater directly due to the storm's effects, but the particular scientist involved is stating that as sea level rises, similar events will be more commonplace. I.e. it won't take as much to overwhelm flat land on atolls and surface bed rock at sea level, especially when hit by storms. I'm not sure if that is why CNN focused on the climate change bit or due to scientist involved, but they weren't alone.

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow, I want to say thanks to all you guys for posting all the WILLA porn as it came ashore. This was a pedal-the-metal kind of chase and I didn't have much time to collect any imagery-- so it's awesome to find the treasure trove of stuff in this here thread.

WILLA was my best chase of the year-- the one I'm most proud of. Chasing without radar is a bitch-- it's like chasing blindfolded, because IR images are so coarse and there's major parallax displacement-- so punching the eye requires more skill, more finesse. I deployed sensors (and collected high-quality data) at three locations along the landfall zone, and managed to perfectly nail the eye with a final, risky position adjustment that had me driving into the eyewall. (Yeah, yeah, it was stupid-- whatever.) WILLA's core was surprisingly violent-- with frequent lightning and the sound of a train.

This here infographic summarizes my work on WILLA. I deployed the sensors at Locations B and C in advance, then rode out the cyclone's core at Location A. (That's why the data trace for Location A is shortest-- I got there last.) Notice I was able to estimate the eye dimensions (12 n mi diameter) and boundaries via eyewitness interviews afterward.

P.S. I should be releasing my WILLA video in the next week or so.

[yoda]

One last hurrah in the Pacific before shutting down the tropics in both basins?

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 450 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become marginally conducive for some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could still form during the
next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to move northward today
and tonight, and then turn northeastward toward southwestern Mexico
on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneJosh]

And here's my video from WILLA. This was my coolest, naughtiest—and stupidest—chase of the year, as I drove into the eyewall at the very last minute to make sure I penetrated the eye (which I did). You'll notice WILLA's core was extremely turbulent, with violent gusts and frequent lightning (unusual in hurricanes). The calm eye lasted about a half hour and was very sharply defined. Notice how the wind seems loudest and most intense just before the eye—as if the inner ring was the very strongest part—and also how the winds come roaring back very suddenly starting at 7:44 pm.