Summer outlook

[WEATHER53]

I think what we have been getting is what we will get, rainy and humid but not very hot

This pattern of  cool fronts making inroads further south than typical  continues thru  June and into July  Then we do get hotter and drier for 30 days then by early-mid August more of the same of rainy and not hot. I think JJA will have rain fall no less than +5” from seasonal norms

Nightime  mins will keep temperatures slightly plus for the summer but daytime highs will not be hot, I predict Thirty 90+ readings

Wet  Mays continuing into June mostly don’t lend to scorchers , some of our very hot summers since 2010 were already well underway by late May and early June

Tropics pretty busy with 12-15  named storms and 4 majors 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Good news!

[dailylurker]

Music to my ears. I hope you're right. 

[CAPE]

We always get our share of hot humid days. Just a matter of how many and the duration of any hot spell.

I would be content if we can manage to avoid  a 7-10 day stretch of 90s with no rain.

[frd]

13 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I think what we have been getting is what we will get, rainy and humid but not very hot

This pattern of  cool fronts making inroads further south than typical  continues thru  June and into July  Then we do get hotter and drier for 30 days then by early-mid August more of the same of rainy and not hot. I think JJA will have rain fall no less than +5” from seasonal norms

Nightime  mins will keep temperatures slightly plus for the summer but daytime highs will not be hot, I predict Thirty 90+ readings

Wet  Mays continuing into June mostly don’t lend to scorchers , some of our very hot summers since 2010 were already well underway by late May and early June

Tropics pretty busy with 12-15  named storms and 4 majors 

 

 

I like :-) 

And the Atlantic is conducive for A weak El Nino as well, or at the very least not the cause for it to not happen . Meanwhile, and very interesting,  the Artic is very cold. Might be an interesting late Fall . And Volcano eruptions continue :-)   

[WEATHER53]

Another front moving thru tonight  and by Friday we may not hit 70

Outlook holding up for June  and will see if by mid July we dry up and heat up some. Did have that hot Monday but very few 90+ so far 

[frd]

On 6/20/2018 at 9:21 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

Another front moving thru tonight  and by Friday we may not hit 70

Outlook holding up for June  and will see if by mid July we dry up and heat up some. Did have that hot Monday but very few 90+ so far 

Not sure the summer accuracy,  but July looks like normal on the Euro 46 day ensemble .

I am very interested by the cool anomolies that persist to our far North . 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

GFS popping a whopping 597dm ridge over much of the Mid Atlantic for the start of July...Euro builds a sizeable 594dm ridge over the Mid Atlantic and TN Valley.  Large signal.  Yummy!

[WEATHER53]

On 6/3/2018 at 7:42 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

I think what we have been getting is what we will get, rainy and humid but not very hot

This pattern of  cool fronts making inroads further south than typical  continues thru  June and into July  Then we do get hotter and drier for 30 days then by early-mid August more of the same of rainy and not hot. I think JJA will have rain fall no less than +5” from seasonal norms

Nightime  mins will keep temperatures slightly plus for the summer but daytime highs will not be hot, I predict Thirty 90+ readings

Wet  Mays continuing into June mostly don’t lend to scorchers , some of our very hot summers since 2010 were already well underway by late May and early June

Tropics pretty busy with 12-15  named storms and 4 majors 

 

 

This outlook has been good at the 2/3rd point. Even wetter than I thought and I did emphasize wet.

Fronts  have continued to make it south more and targets for summer moisture

Temperatures  not very hot although the very late June to almost mid July heat wave was more persistent than I thought ; maybe  5 in a row 90+ but not as many as we did have .  Think have 20 90+ so far so have to wait for that.

 

[Jebman]

Tenman you are a genius! You were dead on.

[aldie 22]

4 hours ago, Jebman said:

Tenman you are a genius! You were dead on.

As an overall outlook it feels on the correct side but specifically I think it reads as July would be hot and dry

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

As an overall outlook it feels on the correct side but specifically I think it reads as July would be hot and dry

If you shift the outlook 15 days it is stellar.  Even without that I’d consider it an A.

[frd]

Mid August could trend cooler and wetter 

 

[WEATHER53]

I was off a bit on the timing of the heat, I said Mid July to early/mid August and it was very late June  to near  mid  July but I did have it right that heat would not be dominant and in fact short lived

i told Larry C I did not think his 2010-12 comparatives would be right and Doug K went hot also.

i think this winter will be wet also, possibly preceded by a dry October and November. Temps still working on

[EastCoast NPZ]

Dry October and November sounds perfect for hiking season.   Bring it.  After that, bring the moisture in shovel-fulls.

[wxdude64]

20 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Dry October and November sounds perfect for hiking season.   Bring it.  After that, bring the moisture in shovel-fulls.

I'll second this!

[WEATHER53]

On 6/3/2018 at 7:42 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

I think what we have been getting is what we will get, rainy and humid but not very hot

This pattern of  cool fronts making inroads further south than typical  continues thru  June and into July  Then we do get hotter and drier for 30 days then by early-mid August more of the same of rainy and not hot. I think JJA will have rain fall no less than +5” from seasonal norms

Nightime  mins will keep temperatures slightly plus for the summer but daytime highs will not be hot, I predict Thirty 90+ readings

Wet  Mays continuing into June mostly don’t lend to scorchers , some of our very hot summers since 2010 were already well underway by late May and early June

Tropics pretty busy with 12-15  named storms and 4 majors 

 

 

Overall this was good

August was a bit hotter than I thought, June and July almost perfect at around +1.  35 90+ for JJA which is higher than my 30 call but still a B. Very wet summer was right on, an A. Interesting for August that 94 was the high(98 for the season) and over 50% of highs were 90 or 91 in August not a hot summer really by most evaluation standards .  Tropics still unfolding as we watch Florence.

 

Been  back about 9 months and thank you for that. My mistake was to mix politics with weather. I have a separate site now  for politics. I should not have let my love for weather get messed up by political stuff, it damaged a number of fine relationships  that had developed due to weather. I will never forget about 8 of us standing outside in Pulaski at midnight with a heavy lake squall right over us.

i think this winter is showing a lot of positive signs and will have KA and my winter outlook in about 2 weeks 

 

[WEATHER53]

On 6/3/2018 at 7:42 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

I think what we have been getting is what we will get, rainy and humid but not very hot

This pattern of  cool fronts making inroads further south than typical  continues thru  June and into July  Then we do get hotter and drier for 30 days then by early-mid August more of the same of rainy and not hot. I think JJA will have rain fall no less than +5” from seasonal norms

Nightime  mins will keep temperatures slightly plus for the summer but daytime highs will not be hot, I predict Thirty 90+ readings

Wet  Mays continuing into June mostly don’t lend to scorchers , some of our very hot summers since 2010 were already well underway by late May and early June

Tropics pretty busy with 12-15  named storms and 4 majors 

 

How many majors?

Thanks

 

 

[MDstorm]

50 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

How many majors?

As of October 14:

14 named storms

7 Hurricanes

2 Majors

 

MDstorm