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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Got an alert earlier this morning about the AHPS status change and forecast for the Schuylkill in Philly, expecting to possibly reach near flood stage by Thursday...  Am seeing the bands slowly shifting east so any heavy rain over the northern parts of the river in the 'burbs (as well as the feeder creeks) will eventually translate down stream, and it doesn't take much to flood the river drives.  Didn't get any additional rain overnight.  Currently 76 and overcast and steamy.

 

nws-schuykill-forecast-07242018.png

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Just had a nice heavy shower while I sat on the porch - picked up about .90" of rain in the last 40 minutes, 1.40" total overnight. Brings the 4 day total so far to 3.95". First time under the reds on radar in daylight here (since Saturday), pretty cool with curtains of heavy rain and decent breezes to go along with it.

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Got an alert earlier this morning about the AHPS status change and forecast for the Schuylkill in Philly, expecting to possibly reach near flood stage by Thursday...  Am seeing the bands slowly shifting east so any heavy rain over the northern parts of the river in the 'burbs (as well as the feeder creeks) will eventually translate down stream, and it doesn't take much to flood the river drives.  Didn't get any additional rain overnight.  Currently 76 and overcast and steamy.

 

nws-schuykill-forecast-07242018.png

Looks like the moisture should be shifting east this afternoon and especially tonight if you believe guidance. Personally I don't since it has been indicating that for days now and it's been nothing but light showers mostly so I'll believe it when I see it at this point..

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Worcester, PA

Sat .76

Sun .99

Mon .07

Tuesday 1.26   (through 8:15 AM) mostly around 2 AM

---

Total for the ongoing event 3.08"

 

Most of the action remains to the west - but appears to be creeping east,  - still too far west based on the current radar. Impressive feed from all the way down the coast to east of the tip of FL.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like the moisture should be shifting east this afternoon and especially tonight if you believe guidance. Personally I don't since it has been indicating that for days now and it's been nothing but light showers mostly so I'll believe it when I see it at this point..

I've been looking at a 3-hour animation from GRLevel3 and you can see the creep east down in southern MD.  I.e., I took snapshots of the radar where you can see where the heaviest band was at around 7 am this morning and where it is as of ~10:15 am (i.e., you can see a pivot happening), and eventually a front is supposed to push it all to the east by the end of the week -

 

radar-07242018.png

radar1-07242018.png

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

"It seems" l've been getting nailed w/a heavy 5min downpour once/hr today....things seem to be moving east a tad though. The 76F DP is just killing me...

Yeah I eventually got one just before 1 pm that gave me 0.02" (1.27 over 3 days now).  The other popups were not enough to tip the bucket but added to the steam.  Each little bout did drop the temp down temporarily though.  Currently 84.

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8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Things are definitely shifting east. Yesterday this "train" line was out by Reading or further west...it's getting close. Tomorrow should be more eventful...

se.jpg

Getting some of that right now.  It's dropped about 0.03" so far.  Will have to see if that line keeps moving to the east or stalls.  Temp down to 79.

 

 

radar2-zoom-07242018.png

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Ended up with 0.12" total for yesterday and a whopping 0.3" since midnight (the heaviest just after 3 am with > 1"/hr rates). Now up to 1.67" as a 4-day event total.  Temp is 72 and windows are steamed up real good!  Caught some snapshots of the overnight movement of the band east (between 12:41am --> just before 5 am which is around post time) -

 

 

radar-zoom-1241a-07252018.png

radar-zoom-0312a-07252018.png

radar-zoom-0458a-07252018.png

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Checking in from western Lancaster county - sitting at 8.3" since Saturday. Just about 25 miles to my north the totals are now into double-digit range. Any additional rain is not needed and unwelcome. There are many, many road closures and water rescues ongoing. For those of you who have been lamenting the fact that the heaviest rains continued to miss you to the west the past couple of days...be careful what you wish for. It is not a good situation around here at all.

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