Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

are those shrooms in the lawn that look like puff balls and "smoke" when u step on them dangerous?

Get them when they're pure white throughout and they're both safe and fairly tasty.  Once the browning starts, they're at best very unpalatable, though I don't know if they're actually toxic.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If you begin to feel dizzy, don't eat any more."  That would work fine with some deadly species for which symptoms don't appear until 6+ hours after consumption.

I'd almost want to allow my ticks to bite me than poke around eating fungi! I'll never forget one of my undergraduate professors showing us this one species and saying it will give you a great high until you die. Ticks on the other hand take awhile to give you disease, except for Powassan virus which transmits in 15 or less minutes.

That is interesting though about your run of BN months. Here in the NYC area during my PhD dissertation 2010-2015, I did have two runs of 3 months below average (J,F,M, 2014, -2.2C) and (J,F,M 2015,-3.5C). I considered anything -.3 to +0.3 as "normal". Anything above or below that I would considered above or below average. Through those 5 years of data we +0.8C overall with the max departure from normal being December 2015 at a whopping +7.0C and the coldest was February 2015 at a freezing -6.7C. I did have one run of 16 months above normal (March 2011 - May 2012) with the average departure being +2.2C. However, June 2012 was +0.3C above normal. Even though I considered that normal, I did not record a 'below' normal months until November 2012. That would have been a run of 20 months in a row with an average departure of +1.9C. From December 2010 to December 2015, a total of 61 months, 38 were >.3C above normal, 11 were 'average' between -.3C and +.3C, and 23 months were >-0.3C below normal. Granted this isn't a huge data set, but I do have the data ongoing, just have to analyze it. Trying to get another publication out looking at correlations between winter weather and tick metabolism etc. Hopefully, I'll get that out soon! It is just really interesting studying the blacklegged tick, aka deer tick, and see how the weather patterns not only affect the tick distribution but also tick-borne diseases. A lot of research still to be done!

[tamarack]

21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'd almost want to allow my ticks to bite me than poke around eating fungi! I'll never forget one of my undergraduate professors showing us this one species and saying it will give you a great high until you die. Ticks on the other hand take awhile to give you disease, except for Powassan virus which transmits in 15 or less minutes.

That is interesting though about your run of BN months. Here in the NYC area during my PhD dissertation 2010-2015, I did have two runs of 3 months below average (J,F,M, 2014, -2.2C) and (J,F,M 2015,-3.5C). I considered anything -.3 to +0.3 as "normal". Anything above or below that I would considered above or below average. Through those 5 years of data we +0.8C overall with the max departure from normal being December 2015 at a whopping +7.0C and the coldest was February 2015 at a freezing -6.7C. I did have one run of 16 months above normal (March 2011 - May 2012) with the average departure being +2.2C. However, June 2012 was +0.3C above normal. Even though I considered that normal, I did not record a 'below' normal months until November 2012. That would have been a run of 20 months in a row with an average departure of +1.9C. From December 2010 to December 2015, a total of 61 months, 38 were >.3C above normal, 11 were 'average' between -.3C and +.3C, and 23 months were >-0.3C below normal. Granted this isn't a huge data set, but I do have the data ongoing, just have to analyze it. Trying to get another publication out looking at correlations between winter weather and tick metabolism etc. Hopefully, I'll get that out soon! It is just really interesting studying the blacklegged tick, aka deer tick, and see how the weather patterns not only affect the tick distribution but also tick-borne diseases. A lot of research still to be done!

My quick search didn't filter out the close to normal months, and I think your +/-0.3C span to be quite reasonable.
Though the departures look similar for Feb and Dec 2015, I consider the latter to be NYC's most anomalous month (for temps) since their records began in 1869.  Feb 2015 is NYC's 3rd coldest, while the span (6.71F) between 12/15 and their 2nd mildest Dec (way back in 2001) is greater than the span between that #2 and their 60th mildest Dec.

(My data is slightly different from yours - compared to 1981-2010 norms, I have 2/15 at +6.5C and 12/15 at +8.3.  We may be using different "norms.")

[tamarack]

On other subjects, I think our TS drought (all of 2 weeks) ended about 3 this afternoon.  Lots of 40-50 dbz echoes and Doppler estimated precip near 1" (and near 2" a few miles west.)  Hard to get that much rain in 30 minutes or less w/o some bangs, unless one is in a heavy TC band.

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I have 2/15 at +6.5C and 12/15 at +8.3. 

Feb 2015 was +6.5C? February 2015 was that bitter 'polar vortex' month in NYC area with tons of snow. The +8.3C 12/15 is right about what I had at +7.0C. Nothing will ever compare to that luau we had for Christmas Eve 2015. But yeah it has been a fun time to be involved in ecological/vector-borne disease research. The 2010s have been very interesting weather wise. 

[Weatherexpert]

Yo yo summer comes to an end my friends. Time for the autumn air in my winter air. Excited for the forum to heat up, excited to plow the roads again

[tamarack]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Feb 2015 was +6.5C? February 2015 was that bitter 'polar vortex' month in NYC area with tons of snow. The +8.3C 12/15 is right about what I had at +7.0C. Nothing will ever compare to that luau we had for Christmas Eve 2015. But yeah it has been a fun time to be involved in ecological/vector-borne disease research. The 2010s have been very interesting weather wise. 

Try minus 6.5. 
12/24/15 ranks (I think) as NYC's greatest positive departure (+32?) for any day, any month.  Having CDDs on Christmas Eve at 40 North is truly bizarre.  And it's ironic that their greatest negative departure came 6 days later (and 98 years earlier) with the 2/-13 of 12/30/1917 being nearly -40.

[CoastalWx]

These dews just don’t give up. JFC.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Somewhere, sitting in a cool climatetized basement office in her daisy dukes, the tolland clown laughs at all. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

88F.

Yup, topped out at 90F.  Warm regime

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These dews just don’t give up. JFC.

That’s why we take the over and sell these silly charts of days and days of 50’s dews 

War strong

[CoastalWx]

85 here for high but dews still 2-ply.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why we take the over and sell these silly charts of days and days of 50’s dews 

Not sure days and days but they will lower. 

[snowman21]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Going to be a torch fall and winter too...….

Fall is usually a torch going by the last couple of decades, so that's not really going out on a limb. According to my calculations, if you look at the five SNE first order sites, of the last 20 falls, 9 of them were torches (three month departures 1.5+), 14 of them above average (at least +0.3), and 3 below average. I think this may be a factor in hurting SNE fall foliage.

[Typhoon Tip]

So much for the slow start this morning ... 90/74 was the high here..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Fall is usually a torch going by the last couple of decades, so that's not really going out on a limb. According to my calculations, if you look at the five SNE first order sites, of the last 20 falls, 9 of them were torches (three month departures 1.5+), 14 of them above average (at least +0.3), and 3 below average. I think this may be a factor in hurting SNE fall foliage.

Last October was a brutal torch. Went pumpkin picking in a heatwave. The farm was swarmed with bumble bees, people hiding in the corn maze, families running towards their vehicles with a trail of pumpkins abandoned and smashed on the ground....A horror show nobody enjoyed. 

[powderfreak]

Finally some rain!  Almost forgot what it's like to just hear the rain falling furiously.

Have picked up ~.75" so far in this convection.  

You can hear the ground sucking it up.  Vegetation is very stressed, grass on the ski trails is brown so this is much needed.  

[powderfreak]

Up to an inch now with a nice moisture train still building west of Mansfield.  

So this is what it's like to live in CT.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So much for the slow start this morning ... 90/74 was the high here..

FIT and ASH were 87F.

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

FIT and ASH were 87F.

 Yeah all the way up 190 and down rt2 the dash was also pegged at 89° around 4:45 - it got to 90 for a high Ayer. 

I've noticed this several times that there are certain conditions where that is the hot zone in Massachusetts just E  of the Worsester Hills. It's probably the west northwest wind trajectory

[TalcottWx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

These dews just don’t give up. JFC.

Baltimore like..

[Typhoon Tip]

 One more day in the high 80s to low 90s before we settle into a refreshing pattern that verifies warmer than any of the models and their derivative guidance are showing right now… only to reload the pattern next week for more heat during the Brokeback summer...

 

 

[powderfreak]

We'll we've had thunder and lightning going on about 2.5 hours now.  

Literally constant thunder from 7pm to 9:30pm and still going.  

Local stations near me now over 2" of rain.  Much needed.

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure days and days but they will lower. 

Of course no one said that, but when he's all dews all the time there is no room for even a couple of days of 50s dew points. He makes a lot of stuff up.

[OceanStWx]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

These dews just don’t give up. JFC.

400 hours and counting this summer with the dews over 70 at BOS.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

400 hours and counting this summer with the dews over 70 at BOS.

Brutal, I wonder how many hours of mist fog and rain I have had. Todays sun was a treat first time since Friday we had an almost all sunny day. Just ugly summer for the interior SNE. RI Beaches have been the place to be for more sun, less rain and 20 something other reasons.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Brutal, I wonder how many hours of mist fog and rain I have had. Todays sun was a treat first time since Friday we had an almost all sunny day. Just ugly summer for the interior SNE. RI Beaches have been the place to be for more sun, less rain and 20 something 20-somethings other reasons.

FYP

But yes, this summer has been a different kind of dewy compared to the last 40 years of data. Most sites, inland and coastal, are top 5 if not top overall for dews at or above 70.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

FYP

But yes, this summer has been a different kind of dewy compared to the last 40 years of data. Most sites, inland and coastal, are top 5 if not top overall for dews at or above 70.

It’s been absolutely awesome. And that’s a stat even the coldest of all cold all the time folks on here can’t deny . Plenty more to go!

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been absolutely awesome. And that’s a stat even the coldest of all cold all the time folks on here can’t deny . Plenty more to go!

You’re a weird dude.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You’re a weird dude.

Because I like humidity in the summer? Ok guilty as charged . Whatever