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Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Seems that's been a regular tendency over the last several years to do that sort of thing in these exotic long range fantasy products.  Really ... trying to pack the pattern back into some exaggerated PNAP construct is all too familiar an August release thing.  They are relatively new, in the sense of recently upgraded "tools" ? 

I quote that for tongue-in-cheek, because in addition to the question, I'm a bit suspect of their utility, for the tripe litany of reasons; no sense in rehashing all them. 

Perennial North American Pattern .. not to be confused with Pacific-North America oscillation we commonly refer to as the PNA.   

The PNAP is the base line flow that is entirely instructed by two parameters:  the geopotential gradient/wind therein; the forcing over the terrain of western North America causing net anticylonic motion (subtle ridge bulge) over the Rockies.  It's just that a +PNA will look like a +PNAP ... and vice versa

Anyway, those exotic products tend to go crazy with either the PNA or PNAP look... which ever we want to define it, they are always seemingly in a positive state at this time of year peering out toward that third and fourth week.

But, I don't suspect it's a "PNA" they are really after? Because, at this sort of range, there is enough compensatory noise et al to end up PNAP-ish ... and indices would be obliterated by the chaos. 

Which then if true, begs the question, ...why are these products base-lining the pattern with such amplitude... ? (which then favors cold intrusions at unusually early autumn dates) 

The last several years this has been occurring... I think (admitting to a personal tendency to a mantra the matter...) that GW is causing said bulge in the west to always bias on the big side... Thus, the compensating mass balancing is favoring these dipsy doodle mean looks back east.  

It's all hypothesis ...so take it fwiw, but it makes the winter enthusiasts drool...  My self included, for about six or seven years running ...come mid August to mid September, not just in the CF ..whatever tool, but the actual long range teleconnectors and operational tendencies start leading one to wonder if an early raging winter is going to happen.  

Only one of those years the idea seemed to work better than worse. It was that autumn of the Halloween snow storm, the one that crippled the interior infrastructure for a week.  The precursors for that event were teleconnector heavy, actually. I remember starting a thread about that potential some three weeks in advance, and my reasoning at the time was both observance of the former, but added in..  the operational version tenor of the time just had the cadence that timed well for some sort of eastern shenanigans ... etc.. worked out, and I think the longer terms exotica of the time also had those incurring early cold shots. 

So it may not be without precedence entirely..   It could be that one year, either method landed on a scenario for disparate reasoning ...so it's dangerous to conflate their efforts.  I suspect this... 

Anyway, I just wonder if this is a kind of norm with those CF' seasonal deals that they always rush winter in, because the climate proxy in their physical make-up is some how promoting sloped flow through Canada...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yeah... the synoptic layout doesn't inspire much hope if one seeks clearing, does it.

We have a quasi-closed and/or exceptionally slow moving weak trough stuck in PA...with a perpetual pumping of wv over a stalled S/Coastal boundary.  Good luck with that.  Also, with vestigial WAR like ridge presence E of the M/A helping to train-wreck stall the flow... it's probably going to take until Wednesday at this rate. We'll see.  

Meanwhile, we have a situation in the lower 300 mb or so of the troposphere that is really right out of a January playbook, despite the ambient heights not being below 582 dm. 

That circumstance in its self is something that personally I have never seen - the atmosphere wending its way into a scenario where there would actually be CAD at these heights and thicknesses. Weird.

Probably more just a function of rarity ..as usually at these ranges your dealing with heat and continental transports and a whole different larger scale mechanic appeal.  But, for some reason, the main band of the westerlies is retreated into southern Canada and is actually N of our latitudes, but the ridge doesn't want to expand N and thus we end up with this stagnated 'dent' in the flow over PA.  

Haven't even looked at the models honestly ... just noting the in situ -

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tamarack

tamarack

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

780hr CFS says to bring in your plants September 13th. :weenie:

Just about right. :lol:  Saturday I snipped off the tops of the tomato vines, so they can use their energy ripening the set fruit rather than trying to reach the sun.  I try to do that 4-5 weeks before I think they'll get frosted.

'Least in modern times...  I thought the Seattle Mariner's beat the Chicago Cups 1906 116 win total, with 116 .. a slightly more notable achievement due to the longer schedule?  Neither team one the World Series in 2001 and 1906 respectively.

Or perhaps otherwise, as the Mariners lost 46 games that season while the 1906 Cubbies lost only 36.  (Then lost the WS to the "hitless wonders" Chisox - team BA was in the .220s.)

Edit:  Models were fine this weekend for my area, putting the cutoff near Route 2.  We live a mile north of that road, and totaled a few teeny droplets yesterday morning.  (After a 100% CoC Saturday.)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Did y'all see this? 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2018/08/12/flood-sweep-cars-dealership-vpx.hln/video/playlists/wicket-weather/

... part of me kinda derives a sense of righteousness from that...  for lack of better word.  Almost even vengeance ...against the arrogance, toward a Humanity that just keep on operating with this assumption/entitlement, impunity over Nature...  It not even so much that these technologies exists; I admit...to a fault, I judge poorly against us all for the look of it. 

It somewhat hearkens to that Far-Side cartoon, where the two, tattered clothed desert wanderers happen upon an oasis ... A single palm tree sets like a flag pool marking the location of a turbid pool in the sand. They are knelt to knee getting ready to supple from the miracle find ...where otherwise, sere would surely have served their demise.  The one character's head is turned toward the other, whose is in process of responding with an expression of subtle bewilderment for what the other has filled into the bubble -text above, "What ...?  No cups!"  It's not precisely the same homage ...no. But it does tap that same sense of entitlement, whether for humor (because let's face it, most things are funny because they true) or idiocy.    

Those images on that video, of those new vehicles piled up against that bridge whilst Nature blithely rages by ... that's a kind of microcosm of how all this ends.  Humanity's conceits and assumptions piled up against the proverbial bridge we may have to cross over to succeed a future that forces us to leave all this behind .... 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure June was great. July and Aug is a dumpster here, total trash. 

It does actually strike me as an interesting point ... that 'here' - ness of it all..  Heh.

Up here in N-central Massachusetts, along Rt 2/Mohawk trail blah blah ..it's been fantastic.  

Perhaps not so much down there in the drainage ditch of CT... ha ha.  Just kidding -

But the cloud and sun ratio is available data.  Perhaps someone wants to geek it for a bit and put together those graphics.. Even comparing to other seasons and climo on the matter.  That would put some empirical weight behind it and offer some 'righteous indignation' for the 'horrible' summer.  I'm actually curious.   I mean, this is a weather forum.. that's a real sensible element of it -

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kdxken

kdxken

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It does actually strike me as an interesting point ... that 'here' - ness of it all..  Heh.

Up here in N-central Massachusetts, along Rt 2/Mohawk trail blah blah ..it's been fantastic.  

Perhaps not so much down there in the drainage ditch of CT... ha ha.  Just kidding -

But the cloud and sun ratio is available data.  Perhaps someone wants to geek it for a bit and put together those graphics.. Even comparing to other seasons and climo on the matter.  That would put some empirical weight behind it and offer some 'righteous indignation' for the 'horrible' summer.  I'm actually curious.   I mean, this is a weather forum.. that's a real sensible element of it -

 I was hoping Ginx would he seems to be the best man for the job . 

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