Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: yeah? latest NWS forecast is 88F. Got as high as 91F but now backed off. Dichotomy Euro has 84 86 for both days GFS 92 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 GFS has been bumping the core of the highest 850 temps northward. +20C to +21C now over most of S NH on Mon afternoon. With W flow off the Monads that smells like ~100F for the CON-MHT-ASH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: yeah? latest NWS forecast is 88F. Got as high as 91F but now backed off. For Taunton Massachusetts ? I'm gonna go ahead and suggest (if we are indeed discussing Taunton) that 88 and/or 91 under these modeled atmospheric conditions is inadequate. Mind you ...that's based upon modeled synoptics; could the modeled parametric fail? Sure... but, fwiw ... multi model/multi-run support, from some very dependable sourcing at that, almost make it theoretically impossible to keep conditions that cool under standard adiabatic arguments, those wind trajectories and deep layer ceiling RH... I suppose in the off chance the sun like ...turns off and it stays night... perhaps. Guess we'll find out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 I tell you what ... (and it helps if one actually goes and reads NWS' reason - heh) ... but if the wind can veer to 210 or less (somewhere in that slope) than pretty much all of R.I. and SE Ma, and maybe as far up as even Logan get some "relief" off the bite water contamination from modulation between the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound. ... maybe. But, it looks like the dependable model sources are trying to formulate at least an impression of a lee-side thermal trough ...and that could do the trick of bending the wind with more southerly component...But, should the wind stay with enough westerly trajectory... in either format the deep layer thermal fields make 88 or 91 a difficult limitation, so we're hedging on the indirect ocean influence for verifying the lower numbers here. If the Euro is really saying 84 to 86 in Tuanton... I'd like to know the exact source for those numbers ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 We summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If the Euro is really saying 84 to 86 in Tuanton... I'd like to know the exact source for those numbers ? Euro is the source, what do you think I made it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Here's the Euro 0Z max highs for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 43 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Here's the Euro 0Z max highs for Monday. Heading up to the Kangamangus Sunday and Monday what do you think the chances are for much rain ? I won't hold it against you if you are wrong :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, kdxken said: Heading up to the Kangamangus Sunday and Monday what do you think the chances are for much rain ? I won't hold it against you if you are wrong :-) May be higher than we think ... initially the "ring of fire" around the northern arc of the heat dome will be situated somewhere's central to NNE ...so, that's sort of a conveyor for convection should any develop. Plus, you add to that .. the bumpy land topography from the Tughill region of upstate NY on through the White's and Green's ... that may accentuate some of that potential. I think also some of the guidance have spatterings of QPF around there, which may atone for some of this reasoning - ...keep an eye out. All that, and the NAM model has been trying to drop heavy convection sagging S with the boundary around 18z Monday outright... Not sure about that particular guidance at this range, for convective initialization, but given to initial conditions it's not impossible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: May be higher than we think ... initially the "ring of fire" around the northern arc of the heat dome will be situated somewhere's central to NNE ...so, that sort of a conveyor for convection should any develop. Plus, you add to that .. the bumpy land topography from the Tughill region of upstate NY on through the White's and Green's ... that may accentuate some of that potential. I think also some of the guidance have spatterings of QPF around there, which may atone for some of this reasoning - ...keep an eye out. All that, and the NAM model has been trying to drop heavy convection sagging S with the boundary around 18z Monday outright... Not sure about that particular guidance at this range, for convective initialization, but given to initial conditions it's not impossible either. Tip, good to hear your reasoning. The Gray AFD seemed bullish in the shower/storm chances when I compare that to what the models are spitting out here in the Lakes Region of NH. . I really want a nice solid line of heavy T storms slowly moving south through this region later Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is the source, what do you think I made it up? Doesn’t really match the output though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is the source, what do you think I made it up? No... 'source' can be anything. The euro may generate base numbers...but then if and often they are, mangled by machine/interpretive algorithms, that becomes the source. Having said that, it's up to the user to consume the numbers regardless of the source. That source looks like schit buuuuut, who knows. Perhaps it may verify that way... particularly if that region's winds veer more. But, should it be more west, I wouldn't trust that given the Meteorology of what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Hmm... That's two out of the last three cycles of the operational GFS that paint most of the conus, east of the Rockies ~ longitudes, awash in substantively hot 850 mb temperature anomalies... from roughly the end of this week ...right out to the end of the run. Basically 9 or 10 days worth of plausible 90 F on any given day. 00z, and now this 12z ... The 06z was still averaging warmer than normal... Didn't spend much time on it, but it 'looked' like it had more trough incursions at times - which may actually be more seasonal-trend friendly. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Seems like the 97+ big heat signal on Monday is looking a bit more murky down here. Core of warmest 850's has shifted NE and the mean wind flow may be more SW than W along with debris cloud contamination. May end up 94-96 range which is nothing really special around here. Schools were already announced on Friday as an early release Monday here due to the projected the projected heat and minimal AC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Seems like the 97+ big heat signal on Monday is looking a bit more murky down here. Core of warmest 850's has shifted NE and the mean wind flow may be more SW than W along with debris cloud contamination. May end up 94-96 range which is nothing really special around here. Schools were already announced on Friday as an early release Monday here due to the projected the projected heat and minimal AC's. Cloud coverage certainly plays a role.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Seems like the 97+ big heat signal on Monday is looking a bit more murky down here. Core of warmest 850's has shifted NE and the mean wind flow may be more SW than W along with debris cloud contamination. May end up 94-96 range which is nothing really special around here. Schools were already announced on Friday as an early release Monday here due to the projected the projected heat and minimal AC's. 95/68 in a non-AC school is still terribly miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Debris is always the wild card. Probably among the most impressive hot days I’ve seen was a day I needed to be in DC in 2006. Solid overcast and they still hit 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Debris is always the wild card. Probably among the most impressive hot days I’ve seen was a day I needed to be in DC in 2006. Solid overcast and they still hit 100. Those days the air almost feels worse. The clouds reradiate IR/longwave rad back down on you and the air just feels dead. The nights are worse too...probably 80F type mins for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Debris is always the wild card. Probably among the most impressive hot days I’ve seen was a day I needed to be in DC in 2006. Solid overcast and they still hit 100. It's an interesting physical question actually... I've noticed that around my sister's place in VA, too - ...they need more than we do to suppress a potential. I suspect it's just an irradiance thresholds thing, where down there...so much intensity even in diffused daylight seems to add enough to cook. It's just less here... it's why as we've noted in the past ... less can go wrong by the time we get to our latitude and dimming/muting occurs. I just don't know where that latitude cut-off is... NYC...? PHL...DCA... etc... But an ill-timed cirrus tendril will stop Logan dead at 98 on a west wind under 22 C at 850 - I've seen that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: 95/68 in a non-AC school is still terribly miserable. Heck 88/68 in a non-AC school is terribly miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Heck 88/68 in a non-AC school is terribly miserable. if we wanna really break it down... there's probably a reason why the climate control standard for indoor public venue environments is set at 72/50 or thereabouts ... but heh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: 95/68 in a non-AC school is still terribly miserable. Nobody should be kidding themselves, anywhere under 1000' in S WNE is going to bake on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 NWS forecast is 89F for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 I may hit 90 today. Up to 85 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 18 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nobody should be kidding themselves, anywhere under 1000' in S WNE is going to bake on Monday. I've hit 90* three times since 2016. I'm guessing tomorrow might make 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NWS forecast is 89F for tomorrow. TAN has already hit 89F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: TAN has already hit 89F today. BOX FTMFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: BOX FTMFL GFS has had a bit more of a southerly component down there and the max 850s are near here...so maybe he ends up close to today. We'll see. It won't take much of a westerly component to blow that furnace back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Low of 44F this morning and so far up to 85F...warm summery afternoon. BML already at 87F off a low of 42F, so 45-degree rise today so far. 85F but with dew points in the 40s and only 27% RH, its about as dry a heat as we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 MHT with 89/43 for only 20% RH... maybe they can tickle down into the 10s for RH? So very dry heat... New England doesn't do 85-90 with RH of 20-30% very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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