powderfreak Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 What a top 10 day! 71/34 for early evening obs is fantastic for June. It really dried out today, dews started out in the 50s and have dropped to near freezing now.... not often we get a 22/01 ob in June. KMVL 082154Z AUTO 32006KT 10SM CLR 22/01 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP197 T02170011 BML had 70/33 and having the radiators seeing dews that low this afternoon, with clear skies makes me think it'll drop like a rock this evening for a chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Some chilly nights coming up but tomorrow night looks coldest per BTV, even mentions patchy frost in the cold spots. Areas of NE VT already had freezing temperatures on June 2nd I think. Short growing season in those spots. "By Saturday night lows trend about 5 degrees cooler (35 to 45 in general) with some variability. The coolest hollows in areas of the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont may see a brief window where some patchy light frost may develop, but given the shortness of the nocturnal period this time of year it poses little concern for now. &&" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 Perfect weather for June. Ill take 90 in August w 5 foot peelers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 On 6/8/2018 at 3:33 PM, tamarack said: So 5 days averaging 58/42 with very little sunshine won't help my peppers? Even down here the nightshades are struggling a bit. Warm days but I think cool nights have slowed them down. I've just given up on the lawn due to the dry outlook over the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2018 Share Posted June 10, 2018 We may get some convective rains through here on Thursday ... After that, we set stage (maybe...) Can't say I'm completely sold on it, but the Euro is puking a full on Sonoran heat release ...replete with climbing the latitudinal ladder before arriving on a NW flow which is pretty classic for how we get big numbers here. Problem is ...seasonal trend. I am willing to suggest it worth monitoring (that is, for those that engage in the full panoply of Meteorological events ...) however, for what is left of the teleconnector correlations in summer offer vague support...as well, it's not the first run as of late that's been sending big daddy plumes into the east. As is, D 8 is 90+ and with that radiative slab of dragon fart drifting over head, you can bet that's one roaster of an overnight in urban areas...which of course sets the stage under 21 or 22C at 850 and utterly perfect insolation and light NW wind for a run at triple digits. Heh, almost on the straight upright solar day of the year too - yikes. Low confidence - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: We may get some convective rains through here on Thursday ... After that, we set stage (maybe...) Can't say I'm completely sold on it, but the Euro is puking a full on Sonoran heat release ...replete with climbing the latitudinal ladder before arriving on a NW flow which is pretty classic for how we get big numbers here. Problem is ...seasonal trend. I am willing to suggest it worth monitoring (that is, for those that engage in the full panoply of Meteorological events ...) however, for what is left of the teleconnector correlations in summer offer vague support...as well, it's not the first run as of late that's been sending big daddy plumes into the east. As is, D 8 is 90+ and with that radiative slab of dragon fart drifting over head, you can bet that's one roaster of an overnight in urban areas...which of course sets the stage under 21 or 22C at 850 and utterly perfect insolation and light NW wind for a run at triple digits. Heh, almost on the straight upright solar day of the year too - yikes. Low confidence - 97 next Tues 06/19. And the heat looks sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Outside of early next week it looks like GFS backed off the heat a bit in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Outside of early next week it looks like GFS backed off the heat a bit in the extended. Yup. they all did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 This June is behaving. Classic evolution to normal summer wx from 6/10 to 6/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Sun is strong, but the air is chilly, put a sweatshirt on by 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Too quick to embrace the first appearance of any kind of cool complexion, whenever it is offered by these guidance illustrations... I'm guilty of it, too. ... my excuse/weakness is purely Stockholm Syndrome ...and having been abused by the models' constantly crumbling heat domes in the middle /extended ranges at least excuse imaginable ... I mean, fail to negotiate a mid-East peace treaty? Better topple that ridge it had on the previous run... Combined with an inordinate amounts of blocking relative to climo for this deep into the warm season, it all has me sort of fully expecting us to verify at or below normal for any given day when the models, at one time or the other, might have had +20 C at 850 mbs. It's been going on since the -NAO era of March dismantled... and when it did, the N/NW Atlantic began pulsing in +NAOs that at times went so overwhelming, the flow backed over eastern Canada down as far as the GL/OV-ME ... and kept delivering - sensibly... one would not have known any index change even transpired. It's interesting... the 'fractal' component in weather prognostication. Sometimes that factor is small...other times, it seems larger. What I'm talking about here is more like emergent behavior as opposed to those directly interpreted/inferred via index modes and/or means of modeling behavior. The perturbation tendencies ... they some times are in sync with modeling, other times...not so much. The 'emergent' behaviors this spring have been off-setting warm potential in the east - regardless of whatever temperature averages have been registered, too. We live in a world where Aprils and Mays ..and given month really, could be down right outlandishly warm... Yet, it seems that the atmospheric vagaries go out of their way to make sure that does not happen - we're like last in line to experience the type of atrocious warm numbers that other regions of the Globe have occasionally been reporting. Instead, we've registered at times warmer than normal numbers, but in a 'tempered' way. Muse aside, the 00z Euro appears to have bucked that tendency and for the first time since early May ... it actually backed away from it's suspicious bullying in with that full-latitude trough around D5/6. It rather abruptly introduced that on the 12z yesterday. Prior to that...it maintained a multi-cycle trend for a significant warm up for those same areas ...GL/OV-MA/NE regions. 00z came back, and actually, this was true across the board, with most guidance also indicating perhaps a 2 -day period of heat with big numbers possible perhaps next Monday... with 21 and 22C 850 mb temperatures in a well -mixed west wind. Plenty of time to abase - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch! yeah, for 48 hours sun-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 48 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: yeah, for 48 hours sun-mon If that ...yeah. Thing is, not sure if the N/stream will allow much more. The models have been really doing everything imaginable to erode this heat dome ... almost feel sorry for the abuse it's taking - haha. But, what's going on is there's a temporary "split" in the flow out west toward the end of the week/weekend. The northern over-arcing part rejoins the gradient rich, height sloped mid level N/stream over southern Canada... while the southern component meanders through the SW and then lifts/contributes to building said ridging/heat dome below about the 40th parallel. This is a precariously modeled scenario for heat up this far NE. ...Should the westerlies/N/stream over southern Canada collapse back into the anchored Maritime trough (which has been the longer termed seasonal trend)... then that heat will get pinched S about as quickly as it arrives - what looks now to be two days would end up being 6-hours then an aggressive fropa. It's seemin' like one of those summers (it'd be three in a row too, if so..) where all big mid range heat signals persistently end up being 12 to 18 hours of DP and dirty warm sectors followed by a cold fronts... Contrasting ... yeah the westerlies (N) could relax in future guidance/verification ... in which case we get closer to verifying a heat wave (3 day deal...) UKMET hinted there... But my guess and gamble is that's less likely given to trend etc... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 GFS would be pushing 100F on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Mmm. Indeed. Machine numbers 15 over climo on D 6.5 is tough to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 In 2 days the negative anomalies to date will be wiped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Despite Kevin's exuberance ... I'm still only partially sold on this. The problem I have is the seasonal trend - we have seen this several times. We have verified it once - at the beginning of May.. MAY..it's taken almost ...well, will have by the time, 50 days to get one of these heat domes to verify. I just would suggest caveat emptor with this - That all said... not to contradict myself but, I do think the Euro is a bit off its rocker looking... It's got way too much wave lengths ... more akin to DJF than summer, and is handling the N/stream anachronistic in using that anomalous behavior to then bully heights lower in SE Canada - almost hearkens back to it's biased for doing that I noted a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Despite Kevin's exuberance ... I'm still only partially sold on this. The problem I have is the seasonal trend - we have seen this several times. We have verified it once - at the beginning of May.. MAY..it's taken almost ...well, will have by the time, 50 days to get one of these heat domes to verify. I just would suggest caveat emptor with this - That all said... not to contradict myself but, I do think the Euro is a bit off its rocker looking... It's got way too much wave lengths ... more akin to DJF than summer, and is handling the N/stream anachronistic in using that anomalous behavior to then bully heights lower in SE Canada - almost hearkens back to it's biased for doing that I noted a couple years ago. Eastern Canada and New England seemed to be locked into a regime where some type of atmospheric mechanics, that my untrained mind doesn't academically understand, seems to beat back any sustained heat. It's like the atmosphere has found the Bermuda High's Achilles Heel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Eastern Canada and New England seemed to be locked into a regime where some type of atmospheric mechanics, that my untrained mind doesn't academically understand, seems to beat back any sustained heat. It's like the atmosphere has found the Bermuda High's Achilles Heel. It's really sorta true ...it's been anchored...while the rest of the surrounding hemisphere meanders in its changeability around that feature. The Euro will get back to that base-line state at least excuse given to it's native tendency to do so anyway - ... but it doesn't look right conceptually either. Which it's probably a moot point anyway, because some semblance of that is true (seasonal trend) and it's just a matter timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 The northern hemispheric look does not support any sustained torches. Hold onto the COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The northern hemispheric look does not support any sustained torches. Hold onto the COC. I think sustained is the key word... would have to imagine as we get deeper into the warm season here, at least transient bouts of hotter weather will ensue. Kev will need to grasp onto those 24-48 hour stretches though between his most hated weather, the boring fair skies and 75-80F. The same weather the public finds invigorating and top 10 days. Today was one of them. A low of 36F this morning, ending at 80F this afternoon for a wide 44F diurnal swing under cobalt blue skies. Everyone seemed to be out running, biking or hiking this afternoon after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: I think sustained is the key word... would have to imagine as we get deeper into the warm season here, at least transient bouts of hotter weather will ensue. Kev will need to grasp onto those 24-48 hour stretches though between his most hated weather, the boring fair skies and 75-80F. The same weather the public finds invigorating and top 10 days. Today was one of them. A low of 36F this morning, ending at 80F this afternoon for a wide 44F diurnal swing under cobalt blue skies. Everyone seemed to be out running, biking or hiking this afternoon after work. The office talk yesterday was how nice the weather has been and how great it is to do stuff outside. Then they started grumbling about the return of humidity next week. Only one person said that they were looking forward to it and everyone else just wanted it to stay like it has. Thankfully it looks transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Torch commeth Sunday and Monday. COC commeth Tuesday. Another set of cool mornings Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Heading to DC Monday...torches there the way they’re supposed to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: The office talk yesterday was how nice the weather has been and how great it is to do stuff outside. Then they started grumbling about the return of humidity next week. Only one person said that they were looking forward to it and everyone else just wanted it to stay like it has. Thankfully it looks transient. In a 2 person office environment, that’s not surprising to find a split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Warm night that only got down to 50F after several mornings well into the 30s. Southerly flow torched BTV last night, only got to 65F there with the breeze. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 what's going on with the models is defying of natural wave lengths. that ridge trough couplet in the x-coordinate on D10 mean extends from 140 W (basically ..Hawaii), to NF ... a whole scale corrections would not shock me, but ... just the same, anomalies do happen in all dimensions of consideration really so.. .having nearly 1/4 turn of the planetary atmosphere locked into a single wave-length that only has three isopleths defining ... may just go ahead and transpire and flout stability. interesting... I'm beginning to wonder if the heat in the continental midriff lat/lons is actually part of the reason for that look.. There so much of it, it may be forcing the ridge interface with the westerlies farther N than the eastern Pacific would normally/geometrically induce ... and then that in turn causes a balancing counter flow to become NW over Ontario... The whole of which then super-imposes over the otherwise shorter long-wave structures giving the total pattern/effectiveness of being much longer. I mean this ... Is pushing credibility otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 I'd say Sunday is only seasonally above normal in these guidance means ... Monday has big heat but because of heretofore nuances ...it gets pinched off to < 12 hour stint and is swashed away by said pattern anomalies. I'm wondering if that starts getting delay/extended ... perhaps a little over the next day ...day and half of cycles. There's a couple error-based moving parts in play - despite the semi-permanent Maritime trough that is shunting summer ... there have been trough components within the confines of that anomaly that also, they have been over-zealous ...so it's heady achy. Ultimately... tedious heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Big heat is another SNE faux weather event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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