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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did @OceanStWx have accumulating snow on the Rockpile in the forecast today?

I would have. Almost an inch up there yesterday.

Hard to go back and see if we had it in there, but you won't be seeing an official forecast from me until after 4th of July. Just diapers and bottle washing until then.

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GFS machine guidance is over climo every day through the extended... sort of a recent trend. 

Also the distant range GFS has obscenely high thickness' pretty much everywhere - little unusual...  

There are weird things going on in the modeling behavior(s), namely...the lower troposphere is persistently modeled relatively cool for the 500 mb thickness intervals, and it's been verifying.    

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My highest NWS forecast high temp is 73F for the next 7 days... wish it was a bit warmer (could do with fewer "highs in the upper 60s") but looks like fantastic Chamber weather for the business suits going forward.  Fantastic weather for outdoor recreation.

Tolland chamber of commerce is advising people to remain indoors until heat/humidity return.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

64/42 for high/low yesterday, should beat that today though as we are already up to 62F as of early afternoon.

Certainly a chilly start to June relative to normal.

For us Southerners

ORH is -3.2F for the first 6 days of June

BOS -4.0

PVD -2.6

BDL  -0.5 ... close enough to normal

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Euro synoptics offer up an 88 to 92 type heat wave for Tues-Wed-Thur next week.  I.e., low grade, and not certain those profiles would pull it off every one of those days but...  mid 80s would be a lock in that evolution.  

Fascinating, ..albeit subtle and probably tedious for some, but the previous idea of a -3 SD potent closed low side -swiping Maine began to change toward a more progressive appeal during yesterday's runs ...albeit, less than obvious.  A little more at 0 z, now at 12, the Euro is entirely abandoned it from influencing regions this far S (SNE) along the EC during said time frame.  

The GFS agrees actually ... It's D5.5 MOS coverage has 87 (~) for the high temp, which is about 7 or 8 over climo - a significant departure for a product that is fairly heavily normalized toward climate at that many days. 

We'll see if it sticks... It's an odd odd looking pattern, and fragile might be a better way to state matters.  That close high up N of JB is an extreme west -based -NAO, or... and extreme east -based -EPO.. but, the models (both) are unusually steeply sloped with the mid level height gradient over a short distance for that look to succeed - interesting to have such an intense REX configuration at this time of year in the midriff latitudes of the continent.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro synoptics offer up an 88 to 92 type heat wave for Tues-Wed-Thur next week.  I.e., low grade, and not certain those profiles would pull it off every one of those days but...  mid 80s would be a lock in that evolution.  

88 to 92 is a "heat wave" around here? Oh I'm gonna love this summer weather up here ;)

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6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

88 to 92 is a "heat wave" around here? Oh I'm gonna love this summer weather up here ;)

Yeah the impetus there was the "I.e., low grade" statement -

We've had big heat around here ... just not as common as this same latitude ..out west around ORD and so forth.  Next week's +15(ish) at 850 with off-shore wind and low to mid RH offering decent isolation should knock the door of 90 tho if that takes place. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the impetus there was the "I.e., low grade" statement -

We've had big heat around here ... just not as common as this same latitude ..out west around ORD and so forth.  Next week's +15(ish) at 850 with off-shore wind and low to mid RH offering decent isolation should knock the door of 90 tho if that takes place. 

I actually don't mind couple days in 90s. Warm these lakes up!

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15 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I actually don't mind couple days in 90s. Warm these lakes up!

NWS has had inland chill advisories for swimmers - ... 

Seems this region's been reeling ever since that freak 10 days in January early this year.  I mean ...-8 at 1pm at some places for a week was weird.  Not sure what the thermocline dynamics are on inland water ways but ... SOMEthing is causing that belay warm up...and it may also be that we were getting sleet/snow mix as late as April 20 this year too.  There's that too - 

There's also a low probability (in my mind) that it could be more than that, next week ... The rub with continuity breaks is you don't know how far the new paradigm is going to get - 

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58 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Back to warmth tomorrow...finally. Lots of warm days and cool nights coming up. 

The best type of pattern...stoked for this upcoming stretch.

Sunny 70s by day and clear/calm 40-45F by night.

Normal for MVL is 72/48 right now, so pretty darn close to the upcoming forecast, maybe a slightly higher diurnal range on both max/min than those normal values.

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13 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Adding water as we speak.  Still to cold to swim (plus needs to settle a bit).  I don’t see me going swimming for at least a week

Grandkids from Nebraska are here for their great grandmas funeral. They were in and out yesterday.  Pool temp 64. Yea deez nutz are still inside my throat from a final cleaning to get a couple of sunken twigs the vacuum didnt get. Kids!

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21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

64/42 for high/low yesterday, should beat that today though as we are already up to 62F as of early afternoon.

Certainly a chilly start to June relative to normal.

I'll shoulder the blame.  Since Saturday when I put out the tomatoes and peppers, and planted beans, temps have run nearly 10° BN.  Sunday was all blue skies, but during the next 4 sunshine was in short supply - less than an hour yesterday, less than a minute Wed, not a hint Mon-Tues.  And though we had precip all 4 days, the total was less than 1/3". Will be very glad to get rid of it.  Oh, and GYX was hinting this morning of patchy frost for Sunday morning.  :weep:

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That hour 120 of the 00z operational Euro is quite odd looking with that geopotential height tripole between the lower Beaufort Sea, NW of James bay, and that elongated negative anomaly situated along the Can/U.S. border.  The tripolar nature of that construct may not be all that unusual in itself, but... plumbing the depths of the eastern EPO domain negative anomaly to the mid 520s DAM region, and then butting that up against heights nearing 580 ... only spread out over 2,000 or so naut. miles seems like it should be questionably stressing credibility a little.  But, ...D5 is ..not exactly in the Euro's wheelhouse, but not that far out either.  It's sort of on the slope where it's better verification scores falls off to uncertainty ... like D5 is better than D7, but D7 is not a whole hill-o' beans better than D9...etc.. 

Anyway, to then butt that whole inverted REX configuration up yet against negative anomaly ...and still have enough room left in the ORD-BOS latitude to sneak heat in is ... pretty fragile.  

The GFS may be the way to go... It's more climate friendly with these features...  But, it too is not without it's credibility peccadilloes ...in how it seems to be missing the mathematics/physics in the model to allow it to behave like June and not January...  .it's been beady-eyed obsessed with carving out eastern N/A troughs since mid April ...pretty much anchoring that feature there in the means while model-run-over-model run it meanders the flow around it like an immovable negative geopotential island.   Frustrating...  Sarcasm aside.. I suspect it is way zealous with collapsing the western end of the elongated trough (above), closing it off and doing a 1978 redux in June ( :huh: )..   As a result doesn't bring/allow as much antecedent warming to the deep layer troposphere, into the southern Lakes and OV/NE regions as the Euro, because of it's overall "je ne sais quoi " attitude for winter enthusiasts it's doing in the summer.  

Haha...just fuggin wit yaz.    Seriously, I think that this next (12z) run of the Euro is a critical confidence boost(regression) ...re that look for modest heat next week.  I tell you though, it's flirting in either direction... 

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Peppers like it warm by my gardening experience... and a certain type of warm, too - like they don't do as well when it is 77/66 -type mugginess as they do when it's 89/54 with ample ground watering.  Not sure why that particular behavior exhibited, but I tried my hand at peppers five years running and the two years that were mild and muggy were so-so, and the year that was a cool summer blew donkey d, and the summer that was hot but primarily dry I had veritable pepper trees growing...  Not sure five years is a good enough sample buuuut, I'm willing to play - 

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