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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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Oh ...cool. I see - ...

very straight forward actually.. The NAM is taking two MCS/ associated convection induced, beta-scale S/W 's and diving them through NNE this evening and tonight... These feature produce a wall of processed cooled air and with lighter gradient, this denser airmass rolls S/SW just like a BD...even though there technically are less mechanics supporting any such boundary. 

It's fascinating because this happens while heights are rising...which should stop that... But the old aspect of NE having two distinct weather patterns, one above 3K feet, one below...this NAM cooling effect is all very low level/terminus of outflow... It's really a gremlin thing ...

Hmm...maybe we can get that over produce and strobe some MCS lightning down our way... Make it a party, hell -

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58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've noticed the HRRR has been bringing through a pretty decent MCS this evening dropping out of Quebec.

IMG_9999.thumb.PNG.4ac5d54f676591976b5a18e984f03714.PNG

It seems to move north to south down the lake on some models, think it losses steam this far south but will be something to watch

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite the overall cinema of a hot times near and far, yesterday wasn't technically part of that 'hot times' just yet.  

Pretty clear "bump up" till the 8th on the GEFS.  This is my locale:

http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ensembles/?latlon=41.95,-72.30

Not looking forward to the Dp's in the 70s but it's part of summer!

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Pretty cool looking... but already you can see the potential to offset all these magnificent height rises and undercut the associated hot 850 mb layers...  Look over southern Ontario...  This is the sort of antic that the NAM probably sees happening around here at some point over the next 24 hours associated with MCS... 

undercut.jpg.e6b1c5e31548acdd7e4648af4324d415.jpg

The only problem is .. the NAM and any other model doing the same, need to be correct about the convective initiation and subsequent propagation...

Btw - you can loop this image above here:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Quebec-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

 

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS is pretty hot for metrowest tomorrow. Damage is done before the pseudo backdoor arrives. 

ha, I was just looking at that.. .My god...  it gets to 102 at places like Framingham to Nashua ...THEN, cools from the E...

yeeeah, shouldn't that strain believability - .. I could see 89 to 92 .. hm

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Wow...  looking at the free sources on the web - so taken fwiw - but the Euro does not appear to have any BD and/or pseudo-BD and/or east wind tomorrow at all...

12z panel does not appear destined to, or could... get to those scenarios - any one else have any input?   That's back to the roast look from a few days back... wtf. 

Officially...checked out on any idea here -

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o k... 

there is a some onshore flow, but it's just within 5 or 10 clicks of the shore.  Should keep Logan out of the heat and maybe trickle relief into downtown... but get out to I-95 on this Euro run and we're 95 to 97 ... I wonder if we can actually add some DP to this beast.  I mean I hope not...

Looks like it has 94 to 98 for the region tomorrow through Wednesday... Actually Thursday too -

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Look at those Euro dews at 0Z Wed.  Yikes,  mid to upper 70's.  Temps well in the 90's late PM too.  I don't think you see heat index's that high very often in E Mass.

Untitled.jpg

It's incredible... 

here's the temps while that's happening..

image.png.37cd1b52c3f3c3e5c4c48f77332003b5.png

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16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

KFIT at 90 at last report...85 here.  I was expecting close to 90.  Some clouds earlier might have been the culprit.  Tomorrow will be nasty though

It's interesting they're the coolest along the 2 ...   Orange 93, Bed 91...ASH... Usually they're lead -

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About Wednesday late afternoon, early eve.  I chased Hurricane Katrina.  I was in Pensocola Florida the afternoon before a few miles inland.  Bright sun, no wind,  mid to upper 90's, with a dew in the upper 70's.  Instant soaking sweat.  Walk outside from AC and its like a blast furnace hitting you.  When you get dews that high and its in the mid/upper 90's it really is unbearable.  Few people in New England have ever experienced that combo

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9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the nam just backed way off on the bdcf

Now that I've convinced myself 'how' there could be one :axe:

But in my defense... I've been calling it an outflow boundary from MCS' activity all along...and saying that governing mechanics didn't really support an actual BD - so... I guess moral victory is in order. 

But yeah... I saw the Euro and just threw hands - ...

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7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the nam just backed way off on the bdcf

Big change since 0Z.   Now the bdcf is really just along the shore and 5 miles or so inland.  90's make it almost to the coast and dews are now in the mid 70's .  My weathebell map actually shows dews rising to 76-78F by 0Z.  Don't know how accurate these "machine" numbers are as Tip likes to say

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