Whineminster Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 The Cape sucks. Beaches are rocky or weedy and packed with people, greenheads, tons of traffic, and everything is more expensive. The only beaches in New England that are even worth a glance are some in RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 13 hours ago, weathafella said: The more I watch this unfold the more I think the real heat is mid to late week. 06z GFS delays, yeah - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: The Cape sucks. Beaches are rocky or weedy and packed with people, greenheads, tons of traffic, and everything is more expensive. The only beaches in New England that are even worth a glance are some in RI. I could name several here in Maine that i think would rival any in New England as long as you don't mind having your balz tucked up into your abs.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I could name several here in Maine that i think would rival any in New England as long as you don't mind having your balz tucked up into your abs.............................. Outies becoming innies. Way way innies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 The wall of heat advisories/warnings to the west. Not sure what the criteria is for the various New England offices but it has already spilled over into Vermont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 some thoughts this lunch break: There were subtleties in the differences between the 00z, 06z and now the 12z NAM that argue of it's backing off, but these were also slight variances.. Neither of which were enough to prevent a penetration of marine contamination inland - terminus to be determined and not really quantifiable at this time range of course... Could term' near NYC...could hold up near BVY... OR, could not exist at all (BD) and just be a substantive seabreeze circulation... I suspect the latter is likely anyway the more I look at this... The gradient is week that day (Sunday). The heat comes in aloft at the 850 mb level/EML along with the larger scale circulation -directed height rises... But, the lower troposphere isn't really physically 'connected' ... such that shenanigans can go on down here during the early phases of this pattern onslaught ... perhaps less effected. One such aspect being, with light gradient and a HUGE heat source inland while a cold stable marine boundary layer lurks E and S... mmmm, basic thermally induced fluid mechanical /responses and arguments pretty much sell me out of the gates that there's going be coastal modulation ... Again, the extent of which is in question. The NAM actually would then use idiosyncrasies in the positioning of larger scale synoptic features to prevent this from ever being much of a heat wave for eastern NE ... for what it may not be worth.. Just sayn' ------ There's a teleconnector for Michigan and New England that's 18 to 24 or so hours lagged. This was demonstratively pointed out to the hapless denizens of Worcester Massachusetts back in June of 1953, who had no idea of either that being true, or what took place in Flint Michigan the day before ... Anyway, when I look at this .... I can only wonder what is in store for NE the next day... Meh... the reason the teleconnector is so prevalent is obvious to a first year Met student - a-priori, whether tends to travel from west to east at this latitude of the northern Hemisphere. And, systemic migration tends to be ... oh, roughly 1,500 km/24-HR ...something like that. To second year Met student, the non-linear 'smearing' and offsets enter the picture...such as, whether the system is amplifying and slowing down, or pancaking and speeding up... etc etc... We have to balance in the total synoptic evolution for those (as modeled duh...), and that does tend to leave only the inclusion of some sort of BD and/or local circulation anomaly as modulators, ...because from where I am sitting? It's scary to bring Exc. HW level inferred photonic blob of that scale ...downslope toward BOS/NYC-PHL... PWD for that matter... This is also 4th period on Sunday. Not sure what other's thoughts are ...but I don't think tomorrow is more than Heat Advisory, though if we make 94 and hold onto these region DPs of 70 to 73, we'll probably need one... But the big Kahona heat after that - BD notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: some thoughts this lunch break: There were subtleties in the differences between the 00z, 06z and now the 12z NAM that argue of it's backing off, but these were also slight variances.. Neither of which were enough to prevent a penetration of marine contamination inland - terminus to be determined and not really quantifiable at this time range of course... Could term' near NYC...could hold up near BVY... OR, could not exist at all (BD) and just be a substantive seabreeze circulation... I suspect the latter is likely anyway the more I look at this... The gradient is week that day (Sunday). The heat comes in aloft at the 850 mb level/EML along with the larger scale circulation -directed height rises... But, the lower troposphere isn't really physically 'connected' ... such that shenanigans can go on down here during the early phases of this pattern onslaught ... perhaps less effected. One such aspect being, with light gradient and a HUGE heat source inland while a cold stable marine boundary layer lurks E and S... mmmm, basic thermally induced fluid mechanical /responses and arguments pretty much sell me out of the gates that there's going be coastal modulation ... Again, the extent of which is in question. The NAM actually would then use idiosyncrasies in the positioning of larger scale synoptic features to prevent this from ever being much of a heat wave for eastern NE ... for what it may not be worth.. Just sayn' ------ There's a teleconnector for Michigan and New England that's 18 to 24 or so hours lagged. This was demonstratively pointed out to the hapless denizens of Worcester Massachusetts back in June of 1953, who had no idea of either that being true, or what took place in Flint Michigan the day before ... Anyway, when I look at this .... I can only wonder what is in store for NE the next day... Meh... the reason the teleconnector is so prevalent is obvious to a first year Met student - a-priori, whether tends to travel from west to east at this latitude of the northern Hemisphere. And, systemic migration tends to be ... oh, roughly 1,500 km/24-HR ...something like that. To second year Met student, the non-linear 'smearing' and offsets enter the picture...such as, whether the system is amplifying and slowing down, or pancaking and speeding up... etc etc... We have to balance in the total synoptic evolution for those (as modeled duh...), and that does tend to leave only the inclusion of some sort of BD and/or low circulation anomaly as modulators, ...because from where I am sitting? It's scary to bring Exc. HW level inferred photonic blob of that scale ...downslope toward BOS/NYC-PHL... PWD for that matter... This is also 4th period on Sunday. Not sure what other's thoughts are ...but I don't think tomorrow is more than Heat Advisory, though if we make 94 and hold onto these region DPs of 70 to 73, we'll probably need one... But the big Kahona heat after that - BD notwithstanding. Sunday looks like a CT Valley special to me for heat in SNE...I think eastern SNE will struggle to realize the sfc potential for reasons you mentioned. Monday is a bit more iffy but could see it going to the same way...can't say I'm the biggest fan of a weakfish high sitting over Nova Scotia and New Foundland....and the very weak flow in general def provides little resistance to land/sea heating differential gradients. If you like mesoscale boundaries though....I think the next 3-4 days will be fun for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: some thoughts this lunch break: There were subtleties in the differences between the 00z, 06z and now the 12z NAM that argue of it's backing off, but these were also slight variances.. Neither of which were enough to prevent a penetration of marine contamination inland - terminus to be determined and not really quantifiable at this time range of course... Could term' near NYC...could hold up near BVY... OR, could not exist at all (BD) and just be a substantive seabreeze circulation... I suspect the latter is likely anyway the more I look at this... The gradient is week that day (Sunday). The heat comes in aloft at the 850 mb level/EML along with the larger scale circulation -directed height rises... But, the lower troposphere isn't really physically 'connected' ... such that shenanigans can go on down here during the early phases of this pattern onslaught ... perhaps less effected. One such aspect being, with light gradient and a HUGE heat source inland while a cold stable marine boundary layer lurks E and S... mmmm, basic thermally induced fluid mechanical /responses and arguments pretty much sell me out of the gates that there's going be coastal modulation ... Again, the extent of which is in question. The NAM actually would then use idiosyncrasies in the positioning of larger scale synoptic features to prevent this from ever being much of a heat wave for eastern NE ... for what it may not be worth.. Just sayn' ------ There's a teleconnector for Michigan and New England that's 18 to 24 or so hours lagged. This was demonstratively pointed out to the hapless denizens of Worcester Massachusetts back in June of 1953, who had no idea of either that being true, or what took place in Flint Michigan the day before ... Anyway, when I look at this .... I can only wonder what is in store for NE the next day... Meh... the reason the teleconnector is so prevalent is obvious to a first year Met student - a-priori, whether tends to travel from west to east at this latitude of the northern Hemisphere. And, systemic migration tends to be ... oh, roughly 1,500 km/24-HR ...something like that. To second year Met student, the non-linear 'smearing' and offsets enter the picture...such as, whether the system is amplifying and slowing down, or pancaking and speeding up... etc etc... We have to balance in the total synoptic evolution for those (as modeled duh...), and that does tend to leave only the inclusion of some sort of BD and/or low circulation anomaly as modulators, ...because from where I am sitting? It's scary to bring Exc. HW level inferred photonic blob of that scale ...downslope toward BOS/NYC-PHL... PWD for that matter... This is also 4th period on Sunday. Not sure what other's thoughts are ...but I don't think tomorrow is more than Heat Advisory, though if we make 94 and hold onto these region DPs of 70 to 73, we'll probably need one... But the big Kahona heat after that - BD notwithstanding. Great post. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sunday looks like a CT Valley special to me for heat in SNE...I think eastern SNE will struggle to realize the sfc potential for reasons you mentioned. Monday is a bit more iffy but could see it going to the same way...can't say I'm the biggest fan of a weakfish high sitting over Nova Scotia and New Foundland....and the very weak flow in general def provides little resistance to land/sea heating differential gradients. If you like mesoscale boundaries though....I think the next 3-4 days will be fun for that. I agree, Will. There's probably going to be a pretty significant MCS coming out of Quebec Saturday night on the nose of the EML - so some severe for N New England. With the super weak gradient overhead I think the outflow boundaries left by the convection may help act as pseudo sea breezes and keep the flow out of the east for most areas. I think even at +23 BDL may have a tough time cracking 100 with the potential for some AM debris clouds and a hint of marine taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: some thoughts this lunch break: There were subtleties in the differences between the 00z, 06z and now the 12z NAM that argue of it's backing off, but these were also slight variances.. Neither of which were enough to prevent a penetration of marine contamination inland - terminus to be determined and not really quantifiable at this time range of course... Could term' near NYC...could hold up near BVY... OR, could not exist at all (BD) and just be a substantive seabreeze circulation... I suspect the latter is likely anyway the more I look at this... The gradient is week that day (Sunday). The heat comes in aloft at the 850 mb level/EML along with the larger scale circulation -directed height rises... But, the lower troposphere isn't really physically 'connected' ... such that shenanigans can go on down here during the early phases of this pattern onslaught ... perhaps less effected. One such aspect being, with light gradient and a HUGE heat source inland while a cold stable marine boundary layer lurks E and S... mmmm, basic thermally induced fluid mechanical /responses and arguments pretty much sell me out of the gates that there's going be coastal modulation ... Again, the extent of which is in question. The NAM actually would then use idiosyncrasies in the positioning of larger scale synoptic features to prevent this from ever being much of a heat wave for eastern NE ... for what it may not be worth.. Just sayn' ------ There's a teleconnector for Michigan and New England that's 18 to 24 or so hours lagged. This was demonstratively pointed out to the hapless denizens of Worcester Massachusetts back in June of 1953, who had no idea of either that being true, or what took place in Flint Michigan the day before ... Anyway, when I look at this .... I can only wonder what is in store for NE the next day... Meh... the reason the teleconnector is so prevalent is obvious to a first year Met student - a-priori, whether tends to travel from west to east at this latitude of the northern Hemisphere. And, systemic migration tends to be ... oh, roughly 1,500 km/24-HR ...something like that. To second year Met student, the non-linear 'smearing' and offsets enter the picture...such as, whether the system is amplifying and slowing down, or pancaking and speeding up... etc etc... We have to balance in the total synoptic evolution for those (as modeled duh...), and that does tend to leave only the inclusion of some sort of BD and/or low circulation anomaly as modulators, ...because from where I am sitting? It's scary to bring Exc. HW level inferred photonic blob of that scale ...downslope toward BOS/NYC-PHL... PWD for that matter... This is also 4th period on Sunday. Not sure what other's thoughts are ...but I don't think tomorrow is more than Heat Advisory, though if we make 94 and hold onto these region DPs of 70 to 73, we'll probably need one... But the big Kahona heat after that - BD notwithstanding. Tip, Do you have an early thoughts regarding the time frame beginning around 7/10? And I'd be interested in "hearing" what other Mets have to say as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I agree, Will. There's probably going to be a pretty significant MCS coming out of Quebec Saturday night on the nose of the EML - so some severe for N New England. With the super weak gradient overhead I think the outflow boundaries left by the convection may help act as pseudo sea breezes and keep the flow out of the east for most areas. I think even at +23 BDL may have a tough time cracking 100 with the potential for some AM debris clouds and a hint of marine taint. Yeah...we're also limiting the downslope warming too when we have such a light flow. I usually like to see a good 10-15 knots minimum with a significant westerly component to go big time heat (say, triple digits for CT Valley and 94-97 for Kevin to ORH). But, as you said, +23 at 850....that will be felt. The question is just whether we leave too much potential on the table to be putting up 101s and 102s at BDL. Could be pretty nasty still though if we have mild marine taint since it will help hold up dewpoints...we could have some of those ugly 95/75 type readings for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sunday looks like a CT Valley special to me for heat in SNE...I think eastern SNE will struggle to realize the sfc potential for reasons you mentioned. Monday is a bit more iffy but could see it going to the same way...can't say I'm the biggest fan of a weakfish high sitting over Nova Scotia and New Foundland....and the very weak flow in general def provides little resistance to land/sea heating differential gradients. If you like mesoscale boundaries though....I think the next 3-4 days will be fun for that. Agreed... the general cinema of having any +PP NE of Logan at this time of year while it cooks over the interior, with and while light winds hm... not a recipe for untainted heat... There is already evidences of active convective complex potential with what's careening N and through Lake Superior this mid day.. The NAM has been sort of using this activity to intensify S/W mechanics; that lends to its backside albeit subtle and weak, but strong enough, tendency for confluence... and that appears to be the source/origin of it having that pressure rise out over the GOM .. I dunno ...been 'burned' too many times thinking that BD wouldn't be able to penetrate rising heights ...and in she comes... Have to remember, we split into two disparate Meteorologies around 3 k feet... at that level and above, no idea that down here is a different universe not being guided by those same large scale circulation features that are guiding what's above. blah blah...you know this.. just sayn'. The other thing, even if NAM is over doing the rising pressure over GOM... these onsetting hot patterns often get delayed by training MCS that as we know, cut right of the environmental flow. With the the flow being light in every direction on Sunday... I could see there being outflow cooled contamination to heating potential from that, too... Seems a cocktail of reasons are trying to conspire here - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Reminds me of the last days of June 1999. Everybody but Boston baked while Logan to north station had dankness and 70s. A few days later full heat upper 90s. That turned out to be a hot July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: The Cape sucks. Beaches are rocky or weedy and packed with people, greenheads, tons of traffic, and everything is more expensive. The only beaches in New England that are even worth a glance are some in RI. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Sea breeze came in for an hour at Logan but now put and a late day spike appears to bring it over 90 potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: The wall of heat advisories/warnings to the west. Not sure what the criteria is for the various New England offices but it has already spilled over into Vermont A few WFOs have gone to HI values of 95 to trigger advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sea breeze came in for an hour at Logan but now put and a late day spike appears to bring it over 90 potentially. It’s back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s back. 5 min obs did spike to 90 at 2:35 .. not sure if it actually hit 90 or just rounded up tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 I mean ...this is what we're talking about ... these light wind field days... it's liable to do that all weekend at Logan ...stickin' it's bum out in the Harbor such that it does.... Any of the coastal communities within 10 miles of skippin rocks may offset - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 ktan musta pulled the trigger cuz it looks like excessive watches flying for central-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Euro is weird... looks like it's trying to pull the plug on the 'extremeness' of the the heat ... maintaining the 500 mb look, though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Im kind of color blind but the Excessive Heat Watch color stands out much more that the Excessive Heat Warnings further west. Watch color is a dark brick red and warning color looks like a soft pink to me. Maybe too much time on my hands to nit pick with color schemes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Im kind of color blind but the Excessive Heat Watch color stands out much more that the Excessive Heat Warnings further west. Watch color is a dark brick red and warning color looks like a soft pink to me. Maybe too much time on my hands to nit pick with color schemes... Well the watch is maroon, and the warning is medium violet red. Fun fact, medium violet red is also the color of the new snow squall warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Sea breeze came in for an hour at Logan but now put and a late day spike appears to bring it over 90 potentially. Euro is persistent on Logan being in the 60s and 70s interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 I just want to hit 100 a couple times, or at least in FIT, that would be so cool. The sonoran comes to NE riding on Tip's nape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro is weird... looks like it's trying to pull the plug on the 'extremeness' of the the heat ... maintaining the 500 mb look, though.. ‘It’s unusable’, we must cling to the model that spits 2m triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ‘It’s unusable’, we must cling to the model that spits 2m triple digits. God we hope so where ever you are ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Whineminster said: The Cape sucks. Beaches are rocky or weedy and packed with people, greenheads, tons of traffic, and everything is more expensive. The only beaches in New England that are even worth a glance are somfe in RI. Mostly Agree. I cant Fathom how people rave about maine, nh or n shore beaches. These folks are mostly pasty , havent Swam in a ocean or really have harnessed the power of positive thinking. RI or Elbow Of cape or Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is persistent on Logan being in the 60s and 70s interesting Post that map again. They’re using a lat/long to represent BOS. Just wondering if it puts BOS in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 36 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well the watch is maroon, and the warning is medium violet red. Fun fact, medium violet red is also the color of the new snow squall warning. Ocean, I like that violet red. Stands out for us color blind impaired. Color blindness really screws me up in winter with the snow clown maps. Maybe that's a good thing to drive in the fact i shouldn't pay attention to them too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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