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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Based on what I see in the NOWdata, for Mount Mansfield (MMNV1) the 4 highest temperatures ever recorded are:

84F on June 7, 1999

82F on July 8, 1988

81F on July 9, 1988

81F on July 20, 1977

Anyone know what the 850mb temps were for that June 1999 heat?  The 1988 one is also impressive for back-to-back days.

My numbers show 1988 with back-to-back-to-back, 81 on the 10th as well.  Also another 81 on July 8, 2010.

While I was in my VT/NH file, I looked again at MWN's mildest - 72 on both 8/2/1975 and 6/26/2003.  The former stands out as also setting the Rockpile's record high minimum, with 60 - actually posted their one and only CDD that day, though the wind probably negated the need for AC.  ;) 

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24 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Guessing it has something to do with the high pressure northeast of Maine. Will have to see if other models start showing it.

850s slightly cool with winds shifting to the north too. So it is more like a very weak bd...just enough to mute the temps a bit in ENE.

Here's the GFS.

850tloop.gif

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15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

 

ICON does as well, for whatever it’s worth. 

The reason why is convective sequencing most likely...these models have abundance of MCS or vestigial ongoing 'ring of fire' antics scooting through eastern Ontario toward the lower Maritimes, and the outflow is being overly assessed...  

These models have different convective parameterization by the global models - fwiw. 

I suspect it's over done.  

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Not impossible... I guess.

It seems the models have been fighting this signal by throwing and inventing anything within their physical purview imaginable at it..  Why not drive an MCS through heights rising into 590s dms just to engineer yet another way... 

heh.. In all seriousness, it shows why it's hard to get ...let alone, sustain, big numbers here.  To many butterflies and if anything, give credit to the sensitivity of the models.  I do suspect that Sunday BD idea is trumped up a tad...but, with gradient not being very focused, ...what did Jerry call it, 'feeble zephyr'  more or less...  

 

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I'd still toss those GFS 2m temps...subtract 3-5F off of them. It'll be hot regardless. MOS is back to 100F at BDL and days and days above 70F.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/28/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  65  92| 66  96| 73 100| 74  94| 72  93| 73  97| 70  94| 71 61 84
 TMP  72  83| 74  87| 82  90| 81  85| 79  84| 80  86| 77  84| 77      
 DPT  64  63| 63  66| 73  75| 72  71| 71  71| 72  70| 68  69| 69      
 CLD  PC  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| CL      
 WND   5   9|  5  12|  9   6|  6   8|  8  10| 10   9|  8   7|  7      
 P12   9   0|  1   1|  2   1| 15   7| 16  15| 27  20| 24  15| 20 23 22
 P24       9|      1|      3|     18|     26|     36|     32|       34
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   4   0|  2   4| 13  20| 17  22| 15  23| 22  25| 25  20| 14      
 T24        |  2    | 22    | 23    | 27    | 35    | 44    | 26      

 

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/28/2018  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  61  88| 58  96| 69  96| 67  94| 67  95| 69  97| 64  92| 64 56 81
 TMP  69  77| 70  86| 78  85| 76  83| 75  85| 77  84| 74  79| 73      
 DPT  65  62| 62  66| 72  70| 69  69| 69  71| 69  65| 64  64| 65      
 CLD  PC  PC| CL  CL| PC  CL| PC  CL| PC  CL| PC  CL| CL  CL| CL      
 WND   2   8|  5  13|  7   6|  3   6|  3   9|  3   8|  4  10|  4      
 P12  16  10|  0   0|  9   2| 29  10| 24  19| 23  15| 11  11| 13 21 21
 P24      22|      6|     14|     43|     34|     30|     19|       32
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   7   9|  3   8| 17  17| 31  20| 16  24| 20  18| 12  12| 12      
 T24        | 10    | 22    | 43    | 25    | 39    | 26    | 18      
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