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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Past 2 GFS runs have tried to cool ENE at the start of it. Didn’t look close enough to see if it was a seabreeze or bd. 

Not a door.  Cbreeze likely Saturday but off races after that and for those of us just inland it shall roast.

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I'm mesmerized by the 00z suite of runs...  Wow. The 06z GFS then tramples on the backs of the bruised.  Incredible, to start at 00z insult to common decency ... then, add to that, making it worse?

Big heat will wear into the common cloth of decency.  I'm sure that law-enforcement at all scales is/are taking notice, or should be, as it is scientifically vetted: random assault, 'road rage,' ...domestic violence, those ilk of impulsive criminality statistically increase in frequency during hot spells. 

I wonder if those studies looked over different standard deviation scenarios. Like, does that curve reverse above a certain temperature because it seems to me ...it just gets injurious to get enraged above a certain level. 

If I were using the operational Euro's synoptic charts alone to assess the daily temperature potentials, for sites such as FIT, MHT, ASH, BED ... BDL/HFD... EWR, Saturday through next Friday would all destroy climatology by giant margins.   The highs would go something like: 96  102  103  98  93  100  102    

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm mesmerized by the 00z suite of runs...  Wow. The 06z GFS then tramples on the backs of the bruised.  Incredible, to start at 00z insult to common decency ... then, add to that, making it worse?

Big heat will wear into the common cloth of decency.  I'm sure that law-enforcement at all scales is/are taking notice, or should be, as it is scientifically vetted: random assault, 'road rage,' ...domestic violence, those ilk of impulsive criminality statistically increase in frequency during hot spells. 

I wonder if those studies looked over different standard deviation scenarios. Like, does that curve reverse above a certain temperature because it seems to me ...it just gets injurious to get enraged above a certain level. 

If I were using the operational Euro's synoptic charts alone to assess the daily temperature potentials, for sites such as FIT, MHT, ASH, BED ... BDL/HFD... EWR, Saturday through next Friday would all destroy climatology by giant margins.   The highs would go something like: 96  102  103  98  93  100  102    

 

I would take no snow all winter if that verified. You would too. 

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know what's fascinating ... many guidance brought the weakness back lurking over the west Atlantic ... But, because the over-arcing hemispheric mechanics for promoting this giant heat dome/ridge anomaly have just gotten so overwhelming in the past two cycles, it's muting the feature's evolution and blocking (sort of) influence as any kind of off-set factor.   The ridge is just a titan -

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Just now, Whineminster said:

I would take no snow all winter if that verified. You would too. 

:drunk: 

I get what you mean, but ... ahhh, not sure I would, no -  

Significant events have a pragmatic usefulness.  Scientist get to explore the boundaries of the physically possible ... testing the going system of assumptions and/or theoretical models that describe said systems...etc.   While lay-people learn, for others who have been lulled by quiescent times, are reminded to iron-hull against the forces of nature.  

In either criteria that I may realistically (or preferably by some) be so confined, I'm interested in seeing those extremes played out, for all those reasons really. 

Indirectly related point, I mused out loud last week that this may be like the antithesis to the early January cold snap...    Kevin likes to call that "seasons in seasons..." ...one of the few gems that ever comes out of his propaganda machine that's actually worth more than mere fool's gold.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:drunk: 

I get what you mean, but ... ahhh, not sure I would, no -  

Significant events have a pragmatic usefulness.  Scientist get to explore the boundaries of the physically possible ... testing the going system of assumptions and/or theoretical models that describe said systems...etc.   While lay-people learn, for others who have been lulled by quiescent times, are reminded to iron-hull against the forces of nature.  

In either criteria that I may realistically (or preferably by some) be so confined, I'm interested in seeing those extremes played out, for all those reasons really. 

Indirectly related point, I mused out loud last week that this may be like the antithesis to the early January cold snap...    Kevin likes to call that "seasons in seasons..." ...one of the few gems that ever comes out of his propaganda machine that's actually worth more than mere fool's gold.  

It’s brilliant 

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19 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Wait so are we talking record smashing heat wave? 

Mmm... hard to pin point a quantifiable profile such as that... 

It doesn't look like it will be so extreme that there can be no comparison, all days will be smashed or anything...

It's perhaps five to seven days of way above normal, with one, two or perhaps three days of which being near records...  That's a big significant heat event, an honorable mention if not historic by hard numbers.  But daily records can have odd-ball spikes... like "rogue waves" in the data, that are particularly extreme. 

We're dealing more with a 'historic pattern,' as perhaps a better way to look at it ... thick more than it is tall ...And we'll just have to see what height each individual day really gets..

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... hard to pin point a quantifiable profile such as that... 

It doesn't look like it will be so extreme that there can be no comparison, all days will be smashed or anything...

It's perhaps five to 7 days of way above normal, with one, two or perhaps three days of which being near records...  That's a big significant heat event, an honorable mention if not historic by hard numbers.  But daily records can have odd-ball spikes... like "rogue waves" in the data, that are particularly extreme.  This is thick more than it is tall ...and we'll just have to see what height it really gets to..

I like the thick/tall verbiage. Understood. 

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