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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It looks like those numbers are for 7PM CT?!  That's 100+ at locations at 8PM.  That would be impressive if it does verify.

The record I'm looking at is MWN's 72° record.  That's stood for a long time and would be impressive to see that broken.

Its max temp over the 6 hours.  I'm curious about Mt. Washington as well

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its definitely for times like these, I'm glad i reside on the coastal plain.

You’re about 20 miles from the sea?  Maine’s coast is not the standard east face so it’s hard for me to conjure but I know where Augusta is and I’ve driven to that spaghetti joint in Lewiston so that’s my minds eye...

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re about 20 miles from the sea?  Maine’s coast is not the standard east face so it’s hard for me to conjure but I know where Augusta is and I’ve driven to that spaghetti joint in Lewiston so that’s my minds eye...

Yes as the Crow flies, In winter as soon as winds turn SE here we torch, Summer, We cool.

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41 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And euro bakes us the entire run.

I don't think so ...

Talkin' "as is," so take with a grain ...but, D7 the Euro somehow concocts a way to log jam the PP and we end up with a fairly pronounced easterly/SE breeze rounding the bottom of the small bubble no trouble.  It may be "bake - able" still aloft, but that's an ocean drill up underneath there...  

It's probably an error anyway... the models still has some small vestigial influence from a weakness east of the Carolinas and S of LI and that is blocking the high from settling S... So it slides E... a circumstance in totality that I don't believe is inherently high confidence for even evolving - just imho

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For what little it is worth ...that NAVGEM run is 2012 ... only...    EVERYWHERE out toward 180... 

Whether those specific renditions are right or not... I think the elephant in the room is that this is an ordeal that may encompass and extended amount of time... If perhaps in pulses of extremeness, embedded in a longer(ish) relative to climate, positive departure that may take more ..perhaps much more, than merely this weekend to play out. 

We'll see how this longevity aspect materializes going forward, but ... yesterday's runs actually did begin hinting at a reload potential... It's just gotten rather obvious in the cycles since then.   ... 

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Back in the end of December I started a thread for the long duration cold spell.  Not one to necessarily break records but the duration of ongoing intense cold.  Don't think the signal is quite there for the opposite of that or is it?  

The 13 days Dec. 27-Jan 8 ran 22° below my 20-year average for that period, which is probably about the same anomaly as a 10-12° departure in July.  My longest run of summertime avg. +10 is 8 days, in August 2002.  My guess is 3-4 days of double digit departures (Sat-Tues) interrupted by convection and clouds, and maybe a return to heat - It'll be high summer by then.  (My current averages, which are "live", self-revising as I enter each day's data, reach a daily mean of 65 on June 30 and stay there thru August 8 - 40 days - without ever touching 66.)

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

This could push GYX 850T records if the 23-25C verifies. I'm surprised at how many here are mehing 22C 850 temps up here. They are rare. Heck, we can do 90F at the sfc with 15C.

It's mostly meh to me just because of where I'm from. I'm used to this stuff while folks on here aren't. From what I can see, it's quite a big deal around here whenever 850T get that warm with west downslope winds.

I will acknowledge that incoming humidity is no joke. Oof.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You’re about 20 miles from the sea?  Maine’s coast is not the standard east face so it’s hard for me to conjure but I know where Augusta is and I’ve driven to that spaghetti joint in Lewiston so that’s my minds eye...

And I'm 30 miles farther in, at a valley location.  However, it's heavily forested, and I hope that the language below will verify, soaking the upper layers of the soil and giving trees plenty of water to pump out as cooling transpiration.  P&C forecast for my area over the next 3 periods (thru tomorrow night) has accum precip 1.5-3".  We take.

from GYX AFD:
HREF and High Res ARW/NAM all
suggesting 2-5" over the south facing slopes of the White
mountains with somewhat lower amounts in the foothills to the
south. See hydro section below for more details...but have
hoisted a flash flood watch in this area for the tonight-
Thursday period.

 

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43 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

It's mostly meh to me just because of where I'm from. I'm used to this stuff while folks on here aren't. From what I can see, it's quite a big deal around here whenever 850T get that warm with west downslope winds.

I will acknowledge that incoming humidity is no joke. Oof.

There’s not a lot of >23C down there either. It’s strange that the record temp at H85 at GYX is actually higher than GSO. 

7791E497-2513-4147-9324-B76C0BC144B4.jpeg

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its pretty entertaining to hear some of y'all talk about installing AC in April and May .. and even now :lol:. I will admit I will probably install this weekend too haha 

But anyway, I have a cousin that lives here: 

836431133_ScreenShot2018-06-27at5_22_44PM.png.53601e386328cb326138146486cc950d.png

between the heat and pollution its essentially hell on earth. But its a dry heat right? 

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9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why? 

I was thinking there is a definite tenor in the nightly runs to do ..may not 'records' but an extended heat wave at that... so "hinted by some" I assume you mean models, and you disagree with those models?  If so... why - just curious

Heh...that was mostly just some fun ribbing directed at Kev's prediction of getting a record 6 days in row at the 4 major climo sites....and his penchant to install early.

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