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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nope.  That was set at 620' while the current site is at 986.  However, I found a 6-day in August 1988, 10th-15th, though no days above 93.  Aug. 28-Sept. 2 just missed, spoiled by the 89 on Sept. 1.

1988 to me was the grossest stretch of weather I can recall.  Very humid with hot temps.  I was helping build houses by day and stocking a grocery store at night.  My family’s house had no AC and it was tough to sleep

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

"Big Heat," being an expression borne of this weather-related social medium ... has always been 95+   

KBGM's office has a run-down on the criteria for official NWS policy:  https://www.weather.gov/bgm/heat

Pulling the following excerpt out of that source...  " ... A quick study in the Corning area from 2005 summer showed that early in the summer, emergency room visits increased when the heat index surpassed 95.."   That bit about 'early in the summer' is interesting - I suspect they're dancing around the notion there of acclimation/exposure ... Later in the summer, there may be less shock to the general public when temperature are 95..etc..  But that's speculation as to what they mean. The gist of 95 seems to make sense intuitively - it's sort of the entry point when hot temperatures just begin to get more irritating to the majority. 

I also thought I read somewhere that the criteria for Advisory, being 2 hours of HIs of 100, may be adjust down - but I may be imagining that.  

95 makes sense of 'big heat' in our region... because typically, our average DPs require at least 95 for HI to reach 100 so there's that too...  Ultimately, big heat is a subjective term, so this just attempts a little perspective. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Fwiw, NAM puts up a T1 of 28 C for Friday on the 12z run...

That's typically good for about 33 C in the 2-meter provided there is substantive insolation.  ...  The recent GFS (which at this point ...pains me to even mention...) have had 90 to 94 for Friday... 

Meanwhile, WPC's mid discussion mentions some record highs (but more likely elevated record high mins) for Saturday and Sunday... However, I suspect they mean Sunday for us, because Saturday doesn't really feature the dragon fart layer until later in the day...  May be a 91 72 95 80 101 march thru the weekend for traditional hot locales...  something like that? 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

tonight's system has been trending more progressive. that's why there's less cutoff influence to mess with the heat wave

Interesting...  I haven't been paying too much attention to the "why" ... heh... Just that the weird retrograding dent in the ridge or whatever in the hell that is, was unusual behavior to begin with. 

I've noticed it's backed off in the various guidance over the last couple cycles or so ...and just sort of expecting that to happen.  But yeah, this is "flatter" in terms of curvature and that doesn't supply the region near Bermuda with anything to pinch off...    

It's almost like the antithesis to the winter ...when they sometimes need to send p3 flights/special sampling missions out into the Atlantic. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Haha I keep it simple. 95+ is big heat. When I was in DC it was harder to accomplish than you'd think. 

I'm still intrigued by the big heat potential here in the valley. I'm trying to figure out if I want to head to the shore on the 4th and 5th with the gf but she hates beaches lol. 

Find a nice lake the beaches are insane on the 4th

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro was exotically hot in the middle tropospheric heights from D6 to 10 over an unusually large aspect of North America, S of the 50th parallel... I don't think I have ever seen a geographically areal coverage occupy as much of the planetary medium as does the Euro's circumvallate of 594 DAM heights in those extended frames there.  (I'm just using ur post to gog ...jesus)

What's amusing and musing about that... is that the 850 mb temps, for all fair intents and purposes ...fails to really recede appreciably post this weekend ...effectively merging this heat pop over the  weekend with this latter continental inferno in its late mid range/extended.  

It  may not be 100 every day as is.  ..more like 90 to 99 would be supported ..but, every day...   

The NP-Lakes-OV-NE as advertised by NCEP decays the heat signal from west to east, from Sunday on...but, the decay fails to actually get here... Meanwhile, about mid week ... that climate-event-scaled ridge balloons and surges the heat back to those regions west ... by the end of the run, the whole everybody is immersed in it... NP-Lakes-OV-NE ... connected to West TX and Kansas.    

One thing that is missing?  We don't have an ejecta of SW air layers ... otherwise, that pattern would absolutely bizarrely max out - ... I almost wonder if that's just a matter of time anyway. Almost  

But... that's getting ahead.  I think the idea of the Atlantic weakness somehow transitively dictating the flow structure and so forth is setting sail ... slowly.  We may need to see a couple runs to gain confidence.. But, particularly in the blend of say, the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS, those runs look more Meteorologically sensible - at least to me.  Which, to be fair...yes it can return... However, the behavior was suspect to begin with, with that odd retrograding 500 mb trough along the 37th parallel being that far N.  interesting..   

Well, we'll see ... but, another run like that and think folks are just being some sort of forcibly contrarian if they don't see the writing on the wall... That's an extended, historic heat event for the country, and merely missing the 850 panache where having to rely on 21 C as opposed to the 24s and 25s may simply be a matter of temporality in the runs.  

As far as Bob's knee-jerk dismissal of heat around his backyard ... He has a climate-based point. But there is a reason for those numbers - which I am sure he is aware, and as you pointed out amply... the entire southern hemisphere of the wind dial makes it very difficult to put up big numbers there because of the big blue heat sink lurking near-by.  However, given the larger scope pattern and what's going on ... anyone in those S. coastal communities ...should the wind go west for any length of time in the early to mid afternoons, you will cook too... That's likely open to less debate - 

No kidding. Reminded me of that old movie The Blob, where that big mass consumes everything in its way.  Let's engulf the whole US while we're at it

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.thumb.png.36fef8f14d68a1f5425b588696ab5aca.png

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1988 to me was the grossest stretch of weather I can recall.  Very humid with hot temps.  I was helping build houses by day and stocking a grocery store at night.  My family’s house had no AC and it was tough to sleep

i was living in ORH that summer, and it was rough. my car had black vinyl seats, which was not particularly enjoyable

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1988 to me was the grossest stretch of weather I can recall.  Very humid with hot temps.  I was helping build houses by day and stocking a grocery store at night.  My family’s house had no AC and it was tough to sleep

Not the hottest on record up here, but for sustained high dews it's unmatched in my experience.  PWM notched a TD of 77, their highest on record (at the time - I think it still stands) and at one point BGR was reporting 91 with rh 68, which would mean TD of 80.  Don't know if that was from their official site, however.

My earlier post omitted "1953" from the Aug. 28-Sept. 2 run of warmth.  The day after the streak-breaking 89, they hit 99, their hottest on record at the current location.  Not many sites hit their record hottest in met autumn.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No kidding. Reminded me of that old movie The Blob, where that big mass consumes everything in its way.  Let's engulf the whole US while we're at it

 

Ha ha...  'The Great Heat Blob Of 2018' ... in the annuls!  

Whatever that is... wow.   I almost wonder if that low off the SE Mainland there ...if that's more based upon stressing the troposphere with the blob at more middle latitudes?  

Basically what would/might happen...there is so much extraordinary heights there it really denatures the field off the SE coast and causes the model to 'induce/fabricate' a circulation there as a counter-balance ... fascinating.   But wouldn't that be an amazing thing to add.... ?  Like three days of hundred+ then a hurricane - Sounds like one of James' novels ...

J/k James

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

My favorite NE beach is Narra...  My buddies' wives let them out to play one weekend a summer and we gather up the boogie boards and the surf shirts and hit that beach... preferably about four days after an early 'cane bends between Bermuda and the EC ... sending out the big walls...   Don't always get to time that though...  

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