Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 you can monitor real time electricity usage, brown outs seem highly unlikely after reading all of the reat link provided above. https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: ISO New England is predicting a peak load over the next seven days will be 22,410 megawatts next Monday, which is 6,000 megawatts less that the available generation, and 9,000 megawatts less that the available generation + available imports. Wide spread brown-outs/problems are very unlikely, based on current ISO NE projections. https://www.iso-ne.com/markets-operations/system-forecast-status/seven-day-capacity-forecast who/what is ISO, and why is that important to us? ....anyway, it's a "projection" ... just as much as any prediction based upon inputs. I'm sure you know that - just sayn' It's just as likely those are off, because like any prediction system, the inputs may not be correct or skewed - ie, the modeling may be too low(high) etc... It's like with convection indices put out to assess severe ? Those are based on modeled inputs at intervals out in time, but what if the models are wrong... the index reported accordingly, tornado destroyed town, oops.. That all said, the whole brownout thing ...there's nothing "physical" about heat that should cause failure to deliver electrical services to the grid... It's a silly focus for his drama machine to begin with. It is always/only about demand and supply balancing ... Those sorts of issues, I consider those human-derived. It's not the same as a flood, or a twister, or a hurricane, or an earthquake, a forest fire, comet impact or a super nova spraying enough cosmic energy our way to sterilize the surface of the planet... or any other natural disaster. Those are more about inconvenience based upon our own insufficiency under certain conditions... in other words. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: you can monitor real time electricity usage, brown outs seem highly unlikely after reading all of the reat link provided above. https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/ Does this also take into account those towns that have Municipal Power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: who/what is ISO, and why is that important to us? From wiki: Quote ISO New England Inc. (ISO-NE) is an independent, non-profit Regional Transmission Organization (RTO), headquartered in Holyoke, Massachusetts, serving Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.[1] ISO-NE oversees the operation of New England's bulk electric power system and transmission lines, generated and transmitted by its member utilities, as well as Hydro-Québec, NB Power, the New York Power Authority and utilities in New York state, when the need arises. ISO-NE is responsible for reliably operating New England's 32,000 megawatts [MW] (43,000,000 hp) bulk electric power generation and transmission system. One of its major duties is to provide tariffs for the prices, terms, and conditions of the energy supply in New England.[2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 I'm a whitewater paddler, and some of the most reliable white water in New England in the summer time is a result of hydro power generation. When the wholesale price of power skyrockets, the operators of hydro dams will usually turn the generators on, releasing water and creating rapids which are fun to paddle on a hot summers day. I've used the real-time map that ginx linked to help figure out whether it's worth it to skip out of work to go paddling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 53 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some records could be threatened Farmington records: Sat. 95, probably safe; Sun. 94, might be a bit vulnerable, though it would need to be hottest since 2002. July 2-11 records are all 98+, safe unless bizarro-GFS were to verify. All about the winds though. Southerly or easterly won't do it. Has to be W and NW. Even overland SW winds bring high dews, and that water is tough to heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 The euro is still 100F+ in S NH on Sunday. Let's not totally poopoo this yet. If we were at this point after model output of 90-95 the tune would be different in here. Instead we're comparing it to those bogus GFS 112F temps which never had a chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 31 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: I'm a whitewater paddler, and some of the most reliable white water in New England in the summer time is a result of hydro power generation. When the wholesale price of power skyrockets, the operators of hydro dams will usually turn the generators on, releasing water and creating rapids which are fun to paddle on a hot summers day. I've used the real-time map that ginx linked to help figure out whether it's worth it to skip out of work to go paddling. They will also be firing up the oil powered plants and electricity prices will skyrocket. There is an oil fired plant in the Harbor in New Haven that sits idle 99 percent of the year. When they fire it up during heatwaves they sell power abour 300-500 times normal market rates. Also happens during extreme cold when there isn't enough natural gas for the poweplants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: The euro is still 100F+ in S NH on Sunday. Let's not totally poopoo this yet. If we were at this point after model output of 90-95 the tune would be different in here. Instead we're comparing it to those bogus GFS 112F temps which never had a chance of happening. It's like watching 2-4 foot blizzard model runs reduced to 10-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: The euro is still 100F+ in S NH on Sunday. Let's not totally poopoo this yet. If we were at this point after model output of 90-95 the tune would be different in here. Instead we're comparing it to those bogus GFS 112F temps which never had a chance of happening. Nice model we have there. Perfectly timed heat wave to escape to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nice model we have there. Perfectly timed heat wave to escape to the lake. You didn't put 110s in the grids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's like watching 2-4 foot blizzard model runs reduced to 10-18" Ray will be calling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: The euro is still 100F+ in S NH on Sunday. Let's not totally poopoo this yet. If we were at this point after model output of 90-95 the tune would be different in here. Instead we're comparing it to those bogus GFS 112F temps which never had a chance of happening. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's like watching 2-4 foot blizzard model runs reduced to 10-18" More like a 3 day blizzard turning into a 6 hr snow blitz, Dendrites right about the high 850's in CNE NNE , we meh down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's like watching 2-4 foot blizzard model runs reduced to 10-18" Nothing historic, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Nice rain storm on the GFS Thursday, over an inch in a lot of spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, BrianW said: They will also be firing up the oil powered plants and electricity prices will skyrocket. There is an oil fired plant in the Harbor in New Haven that sits idle 99 percent of the year. When they fire it up during heatwaves they sell power abour 300-500 times normal market rates. Also happens during extreme cold when there isn't enough natural gas for the poweplants. Yes those are called peaker plants. Devon and Middletown (GenConn) are peakers as well. As for ISO-NE, they were created by FERC, which is the federal agency that regulates transmission/wholesale energy. So they are fairly important to the NE electric market.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Glad we don't live there. Except you do. Still a good 5 days away though. It'll probably end up a 95-100 deal for CON-MHT-ASH and 90-95 for the more rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice rain storm on the GFS Thursday, over an inch in a lot of spots 2" on the 12Z GFS for me. That will shut up my whining. I would love that amount. Gardens would not be stressed going into the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Except you do. Still a good 5 days away though. It'll probably end up a 95-100 deal for CON-MHT-ASH and 90-95 for the more rural areas. I'll take the under plus i'm selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll take the under. Well it's hard to go over those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll take the under plus i'm selling. U80s ... SSE wind FTW in the dirty Lew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Well it's hard to go over those numbers. Going to be hard getting to that number, I can see some possibly getting there, Very skeptical here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: U80s ... SSE wind FTW in the dirty Lew That's the more likely scenario, We don't do 90's well here, Most years we see none and others a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing historic, next. Makes me miss winter and listening to some complain about a wind whipped 16" because it wasn't the 3.4" of QPF that one 12z Euro run had at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Going to be hard getting to that number, I can see some possibly getting there, Very skeptical here. It's 5 days away. You always have to be skeptical. btw...did we lose Scoot? Drunk and alone on a ski bob in the middle of Lake Winni? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Makes me miss winter and listening to some complain about a wind whipped 16" because it wasn't the 3.4" of QPF that one 12z Euro run had at day 5. Little disappointing after modeled qpf for a run or two was spitting out 36"+ totals.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: It's 5 days away. You always have to be skeptical. btw...did we lose Scoot? Drunk and alone on a ski bob in the middle of Lake Winni? Hmm, I have not been posting much but now that you mention it, Where is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's the more likely scenario, We don't do 90's well here, Most years we see none and others a couple. At least now I have a reason to keep tabs on KLEW for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: At least now I have a reason to keep tabs on KLEW for Sunday lol, They last couple times we cracked 90's here it was in may................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.