dendrite Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put it this way.. When Will talks and posts about temps in any season other than cold... it’s going to be real and it’s going to be spectacular. I would love to see myself, ORH, and even you on the tippy top bald spot of your hill hit 100°. Maybe even Mitch can hit 90°? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Couple quick observations re this heat interest from over the course of the day... The operational Euro is an aggressive outlier with it's seemingly grasping at reasons to rasp at the heat ..eroding using a menagerie of different sources... The EPS is more resistant to change, and also indicates higher heights lingering deeper into the week. This tells me the 00z is more likely to do what the 00z did last night, tonight ... and that's waft right back with bigger numbers ...lasting longer. Despite that ...it is perhaps notable where the GFS's unrealistic numbers are coming from. I was noticing the DPs are barely over 60 F, which I suspect is too dry. Then it occurred to me, the GFS had a DP depression bias throughout the winter.. It was consummately assessing CCB/saturated cold cyclonic side precipitation events with huge gaps between the DP and the air temperature. This was especially noticeable in effecting ptype algorithms (not that those are much good anyway) but, with fresh clean arctic highs park quintessentially N/NW of the region, and heavy on-going QPF, the model would routinely feature some 10 F of gap between the temp and DP. I am not sure if this is the same thing, but ... the combination of looking suspiciously sere in the boundary layer ... up under those 24 C 850 mb temperatures, strikes me as interestingly coincidental..and perhaps if we can inject more moisture into the column more realistically... the temp may come down to merely top tier heat, instead of "historically suggesting infeasible and almost physically impossible". It may be the GFS just as a putrid dearth of moisture at the bottom of it's columns at most times - this would most certainly have an effect at both ends of the scale: whether saturated pseudo-adiabatic or on the dry side. It's well know the gfs upgrade has made its 2m temperatures useless. However 850s do support widespread mid 90s over the interior with the hotspots that benefit from compressional downslopr flow upper 90s to 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Yeah I agree. It’s going too superadiabatic near the surface. Regardless, it is still record breaking aloft for H85 temps. It’s hard to avoid 100F over the interior lower els with full sun and 850s of 23-24C. exactly ... starve that extreme thermal profile of water vapor on top of the hell it'd bring anyway, and the 2-meter turns into some kind of an insolation bomb! 23 to 25 C will get you to 40 C in the 2-meter. .. . you know this, but for the general reader... talking 37 or 39 in the bottom of the adiabat, plus...2 meter parcel turning adds typically another 2 C ... 40 to 41 C equates to 104 106 F egads... but I'm going shy of 111 or 112 But the 18z GFS pushes the 850 mb layer to 26C Sunday evening btw - ...at least, going by the color wheel - maybe someone has a different product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 54 minutes ago, dendrite said: I would love to see myself, ORH, and even you on the tippy top bald spot of your hill hit 100°. Maybe even Mitch can hit 90°? I’d bet we’ve never hit it. Has ORH? seems like you need no leaves on trees earlier in season to have legit chance in the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 59 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It's well know the gfs upgrade has made its 2m temperatures useless. However 850s do support widespread mid 90s over the interior with the hotspots that benefit from compressional downslopr flow upper 90s to 100 yeah... top tier heat is in order ... There's always potential for more ... and as we get closer, some of the necessary parametrics could more easily be observed and with confidence, from the various guidance tools. Right now, we have a model suspect with the bottom of the troposphere, and one that is sea-sawing between pedestrian and extreme every other cycle. It's the summer version of a winter storm on D7 syndrome - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: But the 18z GFS pushes the 850 mb layer to 26C Sunday evening btw - ...at least, going by the color wheel - maybe someone has a different product? 1 On my Weatherbell map the 18Z GFS has 25-26F over much of E Mass, S NH and SW Maine Sunday evening. 18Z looked warmer than 12Z. I guess if its going to get so hot and humid might as well try to go for the records. Hope we get a good soaking on Thursday to help the foliage stand up to 3 days of relentless heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d bet we’ve never hit it. Has ORH? seems like you need no leaves on trees earlier in season to have legit chance in the hills Technically ORH has, but not at the current site. They had 102° on 7/4/1911. Maybe even the current site would’ve been close with that temp. BOS was 104° that day, but that was pre-Logan too. That has to be the hottest day for the region, as a whole, on record. Quite a few all-time state records with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d bet we’ve never hit it. Has ORH? seems like you need no leaves on trees earlier in season to have legit chance in the hills Worcester hit 102 in 1911 but that was not taken at the current location of the climo site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 I’m always a few seconds late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: On my Weatherbell map the 18Z GFS has 25-26F over much of E Mass, S NH and SW Maine Sunday evening. 18Z looked warmer than 12Z. I guess if its going to get so hot and humid might as well try to go for the records. Hope we get a good soaking on Thursday to help the foliage stand up to 3 days of relentless heat. Yeah I mean there’s warmer pockets here and there on varying rns, but the general theme has been for consistent, widespread 22-24C at the peak. Like Tip said, with typical summer mixing you can just sum a general 15C to that and get 37-39C at 2m. Get full sun, a strong westerly component, and dry it out a bit and thermodynamically you can squeeze another 2C out of it. I wish we had some soundings from that 1911 stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m always a few seconds late Better than a few seconds too early :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Such a crazy 3 day run from 7/4 to 7/6 .. I have close to 15 yrs of records imby at a comparable elevation just E of ORH and that stretch would have 3 of the 4 hottest days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m always a few seconds late And a cent short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Such a crazy 3 day run from 7/4 to 7/6 .. I have close to 15 yrs of records imby at a comparable elevation just E of ORH and that stretch would have 3 of the 4 hottest days With the expansion of urban heat islands, I wonder if that same airmass moving in today would have temps a degree or two higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: And a cent short? Chicken fricasse incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 This signal's predominated all others in the modeled atmosphere ... spanning an usually long time in perpetual coherency... Weird. It's like the heat dome version of the Superstorm in 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 52 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Such a crazy 3 day run from 7/4 to 7/6 .. I have close to 15 yrs of records imby at a comparable elevation just E of ORH and that stretch would have 3 of the 4 hottest days The highs are ridiculous, but not as much as the lows to me. To have those minium temperatures is unfathomable to me. A lot of 70s and even a min of 80F...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Here’s CON and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The highs are ridiculous, but not as much as the lows to me. To have those minium temperatures is unfathomable to me. A lot of 70s and even a min of 80F...wow. That's PHX type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 I want it. I remember one day in 1990. LA hit 112, PHX 123. It was stupendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I want it. I remember one day in 1990. LA hit 112, PHX 123. It was stupendous. Haha.....west folks be like “wut?” 100+ out West is easy and frequent.....depending on where you are it can be daily or once or twice per year.....growing up in the Eastern Bay Area I can remember waves of 105+ for several days and some of those days being 110+.....ya ya it’s dry but dude it’s so hot.....brutal.....if we could get to 100 and stay under a dew of 60 here that would so awesome.....a taste of summer back home.....either way we sizzle....Love extremes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 0z GFS backing off on the extreme heat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Still pretty hot up here. GFS and euro have 23C 850s. But we’ve been saying for days now to get those ideas of way over 100° out of your head and keep the expectations realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Still pretty hot up here. GFS and euro have 23C 850s. But we’ve been saying for days now to get those ideas of way over 100° out of your head and keep the expectations realistic. Pretty much. If anyone hits 100 it’s a win in my book. Most will be mid 90s or so is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 0z GFS backing off on the extreme heat.. I can barely sit still from excitement but 6z agrees. Just another run of the mill heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can barely sit still from excitement but 6z agrees. Just another run of the mill heat wave. GFS came down 12 degrees in my hood, Euro 8 from the extreme numbers of a day ago, now a pretty typical July 4th hot spell Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can barely sit still from excitement but 6z agrees. Just another run of the mill heat wave. So are you saying I should not make preparations for 105-110F on Sunday-Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So are you saying I should not make preparations for 105-110F on Sunday-Monday? Kevin gonna be bummed when tolland maxes out at 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put it this way.. When Will talks and posts about temps in any season other than cold... it’s going to be real and it’s going to be spectacular. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 To me the worst heat waves are the ones that last a week and both day and night temps are high, usually indicating very humid conditions, here are some of our climo sites warmest 7 day periods ever. ORH new 1 80.9 1988-08-15 0 2 80.6 2013-07-20 0 3 80.4 1953-09-04 0 ORH old 1 83.3 1911-07-10 0 2 83.1 1911-07-09 0 3 83.1 1944-08-17 0 Boston new 1 86.2 1944-08-17 0 2 85.0 1944-08-16 0 3 84.8 2002-08-18 0 4 84.5 2013-07-20 0 Boston old 1 83.6 1911-07-07 0 2 83.6 1901-07-03 0 Concord NH new 1 81.6 1944-08-17 0 2 80.3 1944-08-16 0 3 80.1 2010-07-11 0 Concord NH Old 1 81.6 1872-07-05 0 2 81.2 1872-07-06 0 3 81.1 1911-07-07 0 Hartford New 1 83.6 1988-08-15 0 2 83.5 1991-07-23 0 3 83.4 2013-07-20 0 Hartford Old 1 82.2 1901-07-03 0 2 81.9 1901-07-02 0 3 81.9 1901-07-04 0 4 81.3 1896-08-13 0 Bridgeport new 1 84.8 2013-07-20 0 2 84.4 2013-07-21 0 3 83.8 2016-08-17 0 BDR old 1 82.4 1896-08-13 0 2 82.1 1944-08-17 0 3 82.0 1917-08-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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