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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, dendrite said:

06 was my first summer up here and I don't remember anything exceptional. Varying warmth and cool shots. The only thing that is etched in my mind is the torched autumn right through the beginning of Jan.

Two consecutive Jekyll-Hyde winters here.  My midpoint for HDDs is Jan 21-22 but for snow it's Feb 1.  Winter 2005-06 had 85% of its (very meager) snowfall in the 1st half, and 06-07 had 80% in the 2nd half.  Late 2006 featured Farmington's mildest Nov and mildest Dec on record (the latter re-broken in 2015) and the first 2 weeks of Jan 07 were 12° AN with very little snow.  Then came the backflip, climaxed by over 3 feet in April.

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

In fact the May/June combo at the local coop in Hingham was about 28.5"!! Wow. That has to be close to, if not the wettest two month combo there. 

 As I recall it was a record in most locations. Out Did even Hurricane Months.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

In fact the May/June combo at the local coop in Hingham was about 28.5"!! Wow. That has to be close to, if not the wettest two month combo there. 

2006 holds the record for wettest May June combo and wettest 2 months there

1 28.51 2006-06-30 0
2 21.92 1983-04-30 0
3 21.60 2010-03-31 0
4 20.25 2005-11-30 0
5 19.64 1996-10-31 0
6 19.47 2010-04-30 0
7 19.07 1969-12-31 0
8 18.76 2006-07-31 0
9 18.60 1983-03-31 0
10 17.81 1982-07-31 1

 

1 28.51 2006-06-30 0
2 16.05 1982-06-30 0
3 16.01 1998-06-30 0
4 15.85 2013-06-30 0
5 12.26 1984-06-30 0
6 11.82 1967-06-30 0
7 11.42 1972-06-30 0
8 11.02 2002-06-30 0
9 9.99 2000-06-30 0
10 9.71 2003-06-30 0
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

These are the NE EPA ENY 2 month records for precip

VT EAST HAVEN COOP 49.05 2001-03-31 13 1993-09-01 to 2018-06-01
NH MOUNT WASHINGTON WBAN 39.18 2005-11-30 0 1948-01-01 to 2018-05-31
NJ HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 32.42 2011-09-30 0 2008-03-31 to 2018-05-30
NH NORTH HAMPTON COOP 31.81 2006-06-30 0 2003-08-04 to 2018-04-30
NY PLATTE CLOVE COOP 31.67 2011-09-30 2 1998-09-01 to 2018-05-22
NJ ANDOVER AEROFLEX AP WBAN 31.65 2011-09-30 0 1998-08-14 to 2018-05-28
CT BURLINGTON COOP 31.24 1955-09-30 0 1932-09-01 to 2018-05-09
NJ JEFFERSON TWP 2.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 31.13 2011-09-30 2 2009-03-10 to 2018-05-30
MA NEWBURYPORT COOP 29.79 2006-06-30 0 1893-01-01 to 2018-05-2
ME CAPE NEDDICK COOP 28.66 2006-06-30 0 2000-11-01 to 2018-05-28

 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I thought the hardest hit areas in that were North Shore but was surprised at the Hingham total being so high.

I thought some of those North Shore towns like Ipswich, Danvers, Beverly,  had like 18-20" in a month.

They did. We had a wet June that surpassed them. Also sticking out in NE PYM county helped in the Mother’s Day deal.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2006 holds the record for wettest May June combo and wettest 2 months there

1 28.51 2006-06-30 0
2 21.92 1983-04-30 0
3 21.60 2010-03-31 0
4 20.25 2005-11-30 0
5 19.64 1996-10-31 0
6 19.47 2010-04-30 0
7 19.07 1969-12-31 0
8 18.76 2006-07-31 0
9 18.60 1983-03-31 0
10 17.81 1982-07-31 1

 

1 28.51 2006-06-30 0
2 16.05 1982-06-30 0
3 16.01 1998-06-30 0
4 15.85 2013-06-30 0
5 12.26 1984-06-30 0
6 11.82 1967-06-30 0
7 11.42 1972-06-30 0
8 11.02 2002-06-30 0
9 9.99 2000-06-30 0
10 9.71 2003-06-30 0

Is that from Xmacis? I’m too lazy to do that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's interesting watching the Euro spontaneously contrive an impulse around that ridge that sets up in the mid-range .. spanning D6 thru 9.  Ends up with a fairly midland intensity coastal storm for our region out of a phantasmically emerged perturbation - at least ... that's what it looks like via the granularity of the freebie products.

I've long known that, however subtle or gross .. the Euro tends to over materialize the depths of troughs from the GL to the MA, NE and SE Canada.  I'm not sure whether that is true for ridge configurations ... and again, it's not hugely obvious much of the time (hence "sublte" or "gross"). 

But last night's 00z operational run takes the cake!  ... Via the 100,000 foot free product disseminations it appears to quite literally create a trough from 0 apparent initial mechanics. Fascinating.  I.e., utterly fabricates...  Day 6 shows a ridge (housing historic heat for the Inter mountain West and SW regions btw!!  Hell hath no fury should that air mass be forced east later on...) with heights actually rising over the arc as the westerlies curvilinearily flow over top across S Canada... Yet, D7 ...from that source, the Euro depicts a buckle that first appears to be quite innocuous. But it doesn't stop there! D 8 has a negative tilted, single isotach trough that it uses to spin up a weak low in the MA ..which it then lifts NE to near Cape Cod as a 4 isobar closed Nor'easter...

It almost seems like that model's "correction schemes," as advanced as they are... either comes along with an emergent property that behaves like the above... or, they parameterize/force the model to do so - perhaps when in the absence of 'normal' perturbation they assume the model's in error and that one should exist ... so they fabricate things in the latter middle to late range. I don't 'really' think so, but it's hand tossing at times. 

Either way, I doubt that spontaneity actually exists from D 7 through 9 there.  I am also willing to nod to more of an actual impulse being there, merely hidden by said granularity ... These free-products of course leave some to be desired (like 30$/month, right!) and if a discrete analysis might expose an MCS/convectively generated phantom v-max D 6. Because as said...that is some mega heat in that dome out there that's going to be kissing a rather fast flow over top... There's likely to be MCS' activity diving toward Missouri if that synoptic evolution plays out like that. 

But wow!!  That may be the harshest, most brutal heat I've ever seen modeled for D5 thru 7 on any product in my life for that region encompassing all of W/SW regions of the Editconus.  30+ C at 850 is probably actually masking the real surface temps do to the fact that the surface sigma levels are high on average but mid grade elevations and plateau regions would almost have to be 45 C in the 2-meter temperatures... which  for climate sites like Phoenix, that isn't abhorrently anomalous perhaps, but the fact that it is modeled to spread out over such a ginormous, multi-regional complexion is almost like gee...  'wonder if GW if finally coming home to roost. 

I've been frankly mystified why there is a multi-decadal bias to not deliver monthly means "as warm" as other areas of the world, situated over eastern N/A.  There have been warm departures of means..sometimes rather extreme around said areas.  But it's a majority vs minority ...sort of relativity issue.  Where relative to the world's empirical GW problem, much of E N/A tends to come in last. And, at what time(how long) when that reverses...   If that mid range Euro sets up like that, any sort of Sonoran release would implicate an unusual problem for the eastern U.S.

In a holistic sense ... take the negative averages that will surely materialize from late Sunday through early Wednesday...  then: (go the other direction in a relative magnitude + a GW factor ) = ?

It'll probably stay lidded though... It seems we have a semi-fixed trough axis in the Maritimes, that is doing so regardless of "weather" the North Atlantic Oscillation is actually positive or negative... The whole of it smacks as actually being an agenda to maintain NW flow from the Great Lakes to Georgia. It has been comparatively unmovable, both in various model means and verification, while the flow over western regions of North America meanders  up and down and around but is forced/shunted by it... That's going to keep Trump's cohort rampart of evil completely enabled in their flouting of the inevitable climate catastrophe.  It's really a remarkable table setting ... perhaps one laid out (and planned) by Gaia its self - God like strategy...

There's an idea... perhaps Gaia has already decided we're next up on the evolutionary guillotine, because upon all available observations ... we could quite conceivably nuder this planet of all life period - or get it close to that state. Seeing that these custodians of this world, not so much can't... but "won't" do their job... it's time to "clean" the oven ( for those older than say 30 ... they may know readily what that means).  Meanwhile, it needs to deliberately protect the greatest-influence-for-change from seeing that metaphor from happening.  Therefore ... hastening things along toward a reality where ecology/global biologies fail... mass extinctions complete, custodians are removed, Gaia starts over again.  Probably with the insects... insects that can adapt to PFC's...and nuclear sludge -  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is just stupid for Maine lol.

The Euro had snow/mix contentions on Mt Manadnock ...more or less...along the lower spine of the Whites in a run or two a couple clicks back..  It meandered the cold pool back up toward the Tughill region of NYS over ensuing cycles, before finally correcting/erasing it as of yesterday...last night.  

It seems the NAM got ahold of that memo and can't give up, tho - heh.. 

Either way, what an epic schit fest - huh.

I feel I/we need to stress and see that we are running above normal ..eh hm, still.  Not just by monthly means - forget that human boundary bullschit... But, just "30 day" chunk regardless - Since May 2nd we'll be some +4 to +7 regionally ... Not sure how much of that included Maine, per se, but down our way. Anyway, a period of negative 'counter balancing' anomalies might almost be expected at some point here or another if going by the statistical/climate normalization method.  Long words for "over due"  - which I hate...but that's another discussion.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

not that the any NAM solution for Tuesday afternoon off of a Saturday morning time lead would have much hope of verifying but in the off chance it does... I'd watch that -

That set up could promote some gusty winds and hailers -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There it is the first Sonoran release post of the summer by Tip. Welcome to summer on AMWX

Meh... I used the expression 'Sonoran release' ... who cares -

beyond you that is ...as you consummately have a need to bring it up in that same context every time I do... 

The 'point' is clad, whether folks want to get their heads around its usefulness or not. Heat builds in the SW, then ... synoptics ejects it east; sometimes, whether that happens on D 12 or whatever, notwithstanding.  May as well call the phenomenon something.  There's run-o-the-mill summer August torridity ...and there are special heat events. They have disparate origins.

If someone wants to come up with some other useful expression that helps elucidate that fact, .. that is, other than subversive chide for those expressions that already attempt to do so, by all means -

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

The 12Z GFS came in alot colder than the 6Z.  Looks like the highest summits somewhere in NNE could get some snow out of this.  Not unheard of for June 5/6th but I guess pretty rare?

gfs.jpg

Probably don't want to climb MWN or Katahdin early next week.  Baxter Park rangers might even close the high trails if those H8s verify.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a soaker. I like the MCS low gone wild at the end of the run. 

It did that exact same thing in the 00z run with an entirely different piece of manufactured mechanics .. pretty much the exact same zealous bias in play.

I think it kind of exposes the Euro's problem in why it over amps late mid range (by a little..) troughs in the east. The base line pattern has higher heights packed back west so butterflies in the east become pterodactyls because it's got scope-related feedback issues..

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