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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

While not likely... I would watch whatever forms off the east coast.. could be a sneaky event in about 5 days.. 0z Euro had a hurricane hitting NC and 12z takes what looks to be a tropical storm East of New England... I'm sure nothing will come of it.. but still something to watch..

What a :weenie:

We are about to be in an extended heat wave and drought. There’s no rains or tropical threats lol

 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a :weenie:

We are about to be in an extended heat wave and drought. There’s no rains or tropical threats lol

 

What drought just had a crap load of rain today with more coming...  I also said that its not likely.. That heat next week will end up being a few days of 90 to 95.  No big deal in late June early July.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well the 0z euro heat came back like gangbusters.   Mid day on the 4th Chicago on east is under a 594+ dm ridge.   GFS/CMC also once again completely gung ho.

Yup Jerry-  ... in fact, the mass-fielding on the Euro/parametrics look even more impressive than they ever have on previous runs...

has a close +24 C, 850mb temp contour that is large enough for a safe assumption, the inside of which is around 25 C !!!  That's about max what ever can get transported to this lat/lon ... I suppose it is possible to get it higher but that's extraordinarily rare...  25 C + full mixing + 2-meter rule is about 105 F

The other aspect is that your 594 DAM height region is still in the process of ballooning at the end of the run... it's just a fantastic run for the heat facet of Meteorology -

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup Jerry-  ... in fact, the mass-fielding on the Euro/parametrics look even more impressive than they ever have on previous runs...

has a close +24 C, 850mb temp contour that is large enough for a safe assumption, the inside of which is around 25 C !!!  That's about max what ever can get transported to this lat/lon ... I suppose it is possible to get it higher but that's extraordinarily rare...  25 C + full mixing + 2-meter rule is about 105 F

The other aspect is that your 594 DAM height region is still in the process of ballooning at the end of the run... it's just a fantastic run for the heat facet of Meteorology -

Man whats up with the GFS and these numbers, Euro for comparison. we torch! we vacation

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

111 popping up? Is that even mechanically possible in NE? What's the all time max temp in this region?

The 109-111 has shown up on a few runs but I am pretty skeptical of that type of heat even in the uhi's.  It's easy to assume this moderates as we get closer and the highest we see anywhere in SNE is 97-99F. Which is still quite hot especially if lasts a few days.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The 109-111 has shown up on a few runs but I am pretty skeptical of that type of heat even in the uhi's.  It's easy to assume this moderates as we get closer and the highest we see anywhere in SNE is 97-99F. Which is still quite hot especially if lasts a few days.

I hope so. I can't remember a prolonged stretch of 100+ in my lifetime. Maybe back to back days, but never four or five.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The 109-111 has shown up on a few runs but I am pretty skeptical of that type of heat even in the uhi's.  It's easy to assume this moderates as we get closer and the highest we see anywhere in SNE is 97-99F. Which is still quite hot especially if lasts a few days.

Maybe, but the euro is hitting 24-26C 850s for us. That is unreal. Lump on 15-17C if we get good mixing and you're talking 102F-108F.

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7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You'd probably have a lot of heat related deaths in something like this, especially in the poorer quarters without a/c and among the elderly and infirm. That's a very taxing period, regardless of one's age and health.

There would be a huge burden on the grid and likely rolling blackouts if not straight up, short duration power failures.  There would certainly be heat related deaths. 

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