Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Euro is about the same wow The Euro was in this neck of the woods and/or strongly arguing for an extrapolation toward that sort of thing as of 12z run yesterday ... As well, vestigial teleconnector usefulness combined with the general tenor of the operational global model types have all been flagging this even longer. But yeah, I sloped down in my chair when I saw that if anything ... the 00z version was a tick or two hotter than it's previous run. One aspect that stands out to me is how quintessentially ideal that pattern evolution there in the individual global versions, and thus their blended mean, is for unabated solar insolation. That is that kind of stinging whir sun you get in the desert scenes of a dystopian cinema... which is poetic reference to a buzzing sound. Heh. But hyperbole aside, it really is light wind and pure open sky ... naked to the radiative power of the cosmos -type heating potential, not one.. but through two or three days of historic launch pad subsequently ended by intervals where the atmospheric thermal plumb prevents substantive cooling of any kind.. It really is baffling to look at that... and such, the 102 to 109 numbers in the both the Euro and GFS operationals, while abhorrent when balancing against climo (to put it understatingly...), are unfortunately consistent within the confines of their own parametric synopsis'. It has all the hallmarks as being a true "heat event" ... Perhaps similar in historic notoriety to 1995, Chicago, or Kansas to DCA 2012... etc...etc... The difference here is that this is modeled over our region... not "glad we don't live there". It is roughly OV and throughout NE England's turn. In fact, the 00z Euro even bleeds the 100F's into western NS and the lower Maritimes?! That's straining credibility some... heh, what part of this isn't. However, I have blustered and opined at length in the past about the persistent (relative to Global Warming) tendency over the last 20 years to verify eastern N/A with some sort of off-setting cooler results per NASA's calculated global means they put out every month. Mind you ...we're talking 'relative' here..? Yes ... we have verified above normal much of time in this region of the world; we just don't own many distinctions as leading the pack, and in fact, the opposite has been true some 60 or 70% of the last 240 months. We're like that person on the work crew that shows up late and leaves early, and performs their duties ...satisfactory at most. I guess where I'm going with that is that eventually ... that person may show up, and we'll put up our own France/interior Europe heat news headlines. 2012 was close but it bled out S and not as extreme as Kansas where it did... Plus, 2013-2014 and then 2014-2015 winters, as mass-media coined it, "cold vortex," (packaged drama for the masses..). We've been living an off-set charmed existence, also ...ironically, one that's enabling. I always thought it ironic that one of the primary, industry-based societies on Earth for contribution in raw mass output of anthropogenic GH mass, was symbolically being protected from a more first hand, sensible read on the condition/plausible effect/affects of the crisis that as a result of that enabling, we get to be collectively kept in skepticism, kept uneasy over "weather" the phenomenon really exists or not... Great fodder for Science Fiction novel... Gaia can't stop us, so instead uses us against ourselves; as a means to kill-switch our species, like turning the radar oven up to 'Clean' and start again .. .with the cockroaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 I've been thinking about the antithesis of the old D9 Euro coastal bomb scenario... Could this be the same sort of amplitude bias? The Canadian model came on board with the mid level geopotential height evolution... more so than less, and the GFS of course agrees as we've already discussed. There's also the notion ... we used to remark about this back in my undergrad days up at UML .. how, sometimes bigger, more significant events in the atmosphere, they seem to "show up" earlier in both ensemble means and operational versions .. then onward demonstrating more in the way of integrity against the perils and vagaries of chaos in time ... They don't then merely change, or prove to be just the faux representation of computer enhanced fantasies. This idea is actually somewhat worth more than mere conjecture ... Mary 1993 did that... So too, the 'perfect storm.' February, 1978.. etc. They are like planetary 'slosh events,' and since the whole atmosphere is synced up, it's rather intuitive that might be seen in model behavior. March 1993 was up at like D 11, and it never really deviated much. In essence, the reasoning is rooted in the notion that big events have big physical force-traces in the atmosphere, and thus both "stick out" earlier on, but also have that integrity to resist change. Immovable... immutable. Something like that. But, that was wrt to cyclones and discrete events within the circulation. I'm wondering if that holistic, if not proven empirical method, also pertains to the anti plain... the ridges... fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 I really had not paid attention to this possible heat wave till today. Those 107 or 108 numbers seem crazy. Over the years East Coast heat waves always seem to top out at 100-103F in the big east coast city. Maybe it was the 2012 one that BWI hit 106F. This forecasted heat wave comes close to sun angle max and I guess if we had a few days of mostly clear skies, fairly dry ground and perhaps less haze than some stagnant airmasses we could reach those numbers. Will be interesting to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I really had not paid attention to this possible heat wave till today. Those 107 or 108 numbers seem crazy. Over the years East Coast heat waves always seem to top out at 100-103F in the big east coast city. Maybe it was the 2012 one that BWI hit 106F. This forecasted heat wave comes close to sun angle max and I guess if we had a few days of mostly clear skies, fairly dry ground and perhaps less haze than some stagnant airmasses we could reach those numbers. Will be interesting to watch... Those are high enough that when it's like 730 pm and the sun is down to tree tops ... it's still 101 ... It's probably 95 at 11 pm in the down towns of urbane setting... 84 to 88 by dawn.... However, that usually requires some DP assist there because ... WV physics holds the heat in... Because of this, I almost wonder if the models have the air mass 'too dry' and that is allowing for 72 to 105 readings like you might find in Vegas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Can I trade the near 80 degree dews for your 105+ heat? I'd rather have the latter than 95/80 or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can I trade the near 80 degree dews for your 105+ heat? I'd rather have the latter than 95/80 or thereabouts. Heh...right. altho - does it matter... ? If it's 95/80 ... the HI is probably comparable to 105/68 or whatever... I just honestly have trouble thinking we get that much raw kinetic power into the BL that far NE but... I suppose stranger things have happened. I've seen a lot of ridge balloons get popped heading into nearer terms so, it's really all eye-candy. In fact, there's a low amplitude convective threat for N. IN/OH PA/NY/New England to get through on mid week first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh...right. altho - does it matter... ? If it's 95/80 ... the HI is probably comparable to 105/68 or whatever... I just honestly have trouble thinking we get that much raw kinetic power into the BL that far NE but... I suppose stranger things have happened. I've seen a lot of ridge balloons get popped heading into nearer terms so, it's really all eye-candy. In fact, there's a low amplitude convective threat for N. IN/OH PA/NY/New England to get through on mid week first. You're right... the heat index for 105/68 is only marginally lower. The 80 degree dew just feels like suffocation and for me it's almost instant sweating even just standing there and not really doing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Today is almost chilly. You see this so often——nadir to zenith in a week’s time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 8 hours ago, dendrite said: Just noticed the GFS said let’s do it again the next day too. i can’t wait for this to verify as 88° Those numbers are stupid. If it were truly going to be that hot the cape including ACK would share the wealth as winds would be primarily westerly. I believe ACK hit 100 in 8/2/75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 56F with rain. Just looked at the 12Z Euro on Weatherbell. Looks like it came in about 10F-13F cooler next Sun/Mon. Temps around 90F instead of 100F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Those numbers are stupid. If it were truly going to be that hot the cape including ACK would share the wealth as winds would be primarily westerly. I believe ACK hit 100 in 8/2/75. I think those might be the pre-climo fabbed numbers... as in, just what can happen at all. GFSX MAV is 95 next Saturday...which, don't get me wrong - going 12 to 14 F above climatology on a D7 MOS product is obscene enough... but, the 2-meter products have 97 ..so there's a slight discrepancy there on the warmer side. Be that as it may, as said ...going some 13 above a product that is as heavily climate sloped as MAV is at D 7 is masking the 102 that's inherently plausible to that pattern, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, weathafella said: Today is almost chilly. You see this so often——nadir to zenith in a week’s time. I know what you're getting at there ... In fact, it happens at varying scales, too. Nadirs of cold springs end up being hot summers ... after all, the climate 'normalization' engine still runs. If it's going to be cold, it has to get hot at some point ...and vice versa, to make quotas. However, in this circumstance...today's 'chill' is more idiosyncratically related to New England's proximity to the Labrador current, and the fact that we have a cyclonic (albeit weak) curl in the pressure pattern fluxing cold ocean air westward... It's comparative below the total synoptic 'zenith to nadir' or 'nadior to zenith' balancing associated with pattern migration. But, it's probably nit picking too. I just see 568 to 571 dm thickness and 850's still supporting mid 80s as not really being a nadir - more like an unlucky lower layer from the ocean. You guys wanna hoot? Take a look at NF on the Euro D3 ...that looks like wet snow/cat paw nor'easter, and D10 the model has 22C at 850 over that same region... Talk about running nadior to zenith! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 56F with rain. Just looked at the 12Z Euro on Weatherbell. Looks like it came in about 10F-13F cooler next Sun/Mon. Temps around 90F instead of 100F+ I'm sure we all have our doubts that 100 F + is going to be accurately verified at his sort of time range... but I didn't see 10 to 13 lopped off the Euro at 12z today. Where are you seeing that? and why - The model still runs two days of 21 to 23 C at 850 mb squarely over us with abundance of open ceilings... The other thing I've noticed is that the models seem to be "breathing" about that period ... with some expansion and subsequent contraction of the ridge complexion base upon 0 vs 12z cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Euro is an absolute furnace at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Where are you seeing that? and why - Hi Tip, I just compared the "machine numbers" off the Weatherbell site. Here is the comparison 0Z and 12Z for Monday max ending 0Z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Hi Tip, I just compared the "machine numbers" off the Weatherbell site. Here is the comparison 0Z and 12Z for Monday max ending 0Z Tuesday That looks much more believable to me. Upper 80s to low 90s in the hot spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Heat just looks further north on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 oh I see, okay... Yeeeah, but the deep layer 'structure' that's bringing on that period of interesting/warmth is still intact... I wouldn't rely on those 'for-fun' products? I mean, not that you or anyone else is, but.. at this range ...best to stick with the synoptic complexion, and just be sort of aware of those other products - they'll obviously get more useful as the time nears... The fact that the total synoptic structure/evolution is essentially the same, differences in progged 2-meters can and likely does boil down to nuances in cloud timing or who knows what... Also, it looks like it's trying to sea breeze coastal locations ...? If so, that's because of a loss in the westerly wind trajectories, and that translates to less mixing; therefore, the surface isn't realizing the 850 mb potential there ... which at this time range is way too much tinkering for one to believe. If the synoptic evolution looked different to go along, okay - but ..I mean, we're talking days of 590+ DAM heights... with a hugely displaced N westerlies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 What a ridiculous pattern coming up.. 594 ridge all the way up to Toronto and Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh I see, okay... Yeeeah, but the deep layer 'structure' that's bringing on that period of interesting/warmth is still intact... I wouldn't rely on those 'for-fun' products? I mean, not that you or anyone else is, but.. at this range ...best to stick with the synoptic complexion, and just be sort of aware of those other products - they'll obviously get more useful as the time nears... The fact that the total synoptic structure/evolution is essentially the same, differences in progged 2-meters can and likely does boil down to nuances in cloud timing or who knows what... Also, it looks like it's trying to sea breeze coastal locations ...? If so, that's because of a loss in the westerly wind trajectories, and that translates to less mixing; therefore, the surface isn't realizing the 850 mb potential there ... which at this time range is way too much tinkering for one to believe. If the synoptic evolution looked different to go along, okay - but ..I mean, we're talking days of 590+ DAM heights... with a hugely displaced N westerlies... I totally understand what your saying. Because I don't have the Meteorological skill set that you have when it gets down to the nitty gritty I just look at the for fun products and assume the algorithms take all of the factors to come up with a trend. I also tend to get hung up on the snow clown maps for the same reasons. Then I fill this all in with the more knowledgeable posters like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 Love the possible temp swings. Chilly today as I was surprised to see 56F on my car at 4pm and then 90s possible in a week. I wonder if we can get the monthly departures closer to normal with upcoming heat. Almost -3 right now on the month and 18 of 23 days have been below normal so far. Time to balance it out. Mother Nature loves her averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 5 hours ago, weathafella said: Today is almost chilly. You see this so often——nadir to zenith in a week’s time. Almost? High of 62 here, down to 55. That IS chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 This would be the highest temp since I've moved here (never hit 90 so far). It'll be interesting to see if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 This is going to be one you tell the grandkids about. Absolute beast of a heat wave. Please please make sure any elderly folks you know will be safe and have AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to be one you tell the grandkids about. Absolute beast of a heat wave. Please please make sure any elderly folks you know will be safe and have AC And please don't forget about your pets ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Yeah...another weenie GFS run. It sucked pretty bad last weekend with the 2m temps right up to go time so take d6+ with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to be one you tell the grandkids about. Absolute beast of a heat wave. Please please make sure any elderly folks you know will be safe and have AC That's if you make it through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 It's interesting how it backed the mid level flow just enough to shallow out a BD for Monday. In the previous three or four cycles that was actually the hottest day. This run breaks it all down sort of suspiciously. It also abruptly cools the 850 layer everywhere for no apparent reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Yeah...another weenie GFS run. It sucked pretty bad last weekend with the 2m temps right up to go time so take d6+ with a grain of salt. This is pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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