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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Cold again last night.  All mountain valley ASOS well into the 30s.

I woke up freezing and slamming windows shut at 3am...MVL got down to 36F.

SLK might have hit 32F, as they were 33F for a few hours.

This has been one of the nicest May/June combos in a long time.

Upper 30s at my place, 7th sub-40 for June, and almost certainly the last.  Thanks to all the sunshine, the month is only 1.1° BN.  Models suggest I'll be a bit AN by month's end.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Wow it's like never ending Top 10 days.

After a crisp morning in the 30s, it's nice and warm by noon.

70F with a dew of 41F and not a cloud in the sky over the mountains is about as good as it gets.

Excited for the heat to come while I vaca for 11 days at the RI beach, perfect timing, just need some offshore action to pump up the surf, meanwhile today is pretty sweet 

20180622_133103.jpg

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Longevity is question... Could end up compacted back west...however, there is a shot for at least transient high heat event ..

The impetus at mid and lower latitudes is 'retrograde' motion, evidenced via 'WAR' migration through the M/A toward an eventual merger with on-going persistent, at times modest, at other times more, positive height anomaly in the Nation's midriff region.  While that happens, the models appear to be injecting SW plateau/EML processed heat in what looks like a positively feed back ...producing usually tall atmospheric heights and unusually favorable initial conditions for daily thickness expansion - that's code of giant afternoon readings.. During these mass-field exchanges... we may running through a couple of days of usually hot weather this far NE ..

I'm just not sure of how long that lasts.  Of recent seasons ...I've opined in the past how we've witness big ridge deals end up being a day ...day and half high DP warm sectors only... Trend aside, this does appear to have sturdier legs than those sort of faux leads.  Some of the GFS runs have been lingering that ridge expression usually long in the east. and having that much positive geopotential anomaly for that long is a bit excessive to me.  I saw one run with 594 dm height contour from BUF to BOS for something like four or five days...  I suppose that's not impossible, but I would think Brian's idea of episodic NW flow types cutting things back has merit there. It's more climo friendly.. 

But for latitudes DCA/PHL back to IND ... that could be something. 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow it's like never ending Top 10 days.

After a crisp morning in the 30s, it's nice and warm by noon.

70F with a dew of 41F and not a cloud in the sky over the mountains is about as good as it gets.

Indeed, simply fantastic.  It’s been a spell well worthy of bringing out…

Thechamber.jpg

While it’s patently obvious that the vast, vast majority of the population prefers HHH and copious levels of “installation”, it’s “refreshing” (oh don’t think you didn’t see what was done there) to encounter a few fringe types that still enjoy these types of days.

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[Heat/Humidity Potential Entering Early July] While seasonable temperatures are anticipated into the middle of next week, a significant pattern change to hot and humid weather appears to be in the cards as we close out June and head into early July.

 

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