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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models unanimously are advertising a massive east coast ridge and big big heat June 28-July 8. That is going to be hell of a hot period for us. Better get some decent rain before then 

Ring of fire?

It probably won't be all torch, all the time...but it does look warm overall. We're usually far enough NE from the heart of the ridge so that we can get some weak cold fronts in here with any weak s/w's passing by to the north.

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17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol sounds like discussing decreasing daylight triggers Tippy a bit.  

I personally hate the decreasing daylight.  I wish it could be light until 9:30pm all year round.

It's a good question - it's not enough to just know that someone is making a veiled reference to a deeper neurotic issue with the weather/time of year/ and/or some sort of issue that needs to get resolved... but writing in a sort of context that "sounds" like 'thankfully...the days are getting shorter'  ...? 

It's an interesting "bargaining reliance" that is crucial there.  Like, why does one need to bargain at all?  Seriously..that's like what ...the third stage of post-mortem. It's cacklingly funny frankly.  So, my comment was more at being mystified that someone needs to crawl inside a statement like that, when it's not even noticeably getting darker earlier for another 45 days for all practical reasons, and ...the hottest most summery sensible weather is yet to come... it comes of as evocatively odd to put frankly, and once in blue moon...I can't resist. heh. 

But in terms of triggering ...its a little annoying (perhaps) but nah... I don't really care enough. I see posts like that often enough and ignore or laugh...

By the way, there could be an upper tier heat wave "cooking" up in the extended folks - 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good question - it's not enough to just know that someone is making a veiled reference to a deeper neurotic issue with the weather/time of year/ and/or some sort of issue that needs to get resolved... but writing in a sort of context that "sounds" like 'thankfully...the days are getting shorter'  ...? 

It's an interesting "bargaining reliance" that is crucial there.  Like, why does one need to bargain at all?  Seriously..that's like what ...the third stage of post-mortem. It's cacklingly funny frankly.  So, my comment was more at being mystified that someone needs to crawl inside a statement like that, when it's not even noticeably getting darker earlier for another 45 days for all practical reasons, and ...the hottest most summery sensible weather is yet to come... it comes of as evocatively odd to put frankly, and once in blue moon...I can't resist. heh. 

But in terms of triggering ...its a little annoying (perhaps) but nah... I don't really care enough. I see posts like that often enough and ignore or laugh...

By the way, there could be an upper tier heat wave "cooking" up in the extended folks - 

Upper tier? Damn!

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9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

When do the dangerous drought conditions look to start?

I looked at the 10 day GFS and Euro forecasted precip for New England.  Averaging them and smoothing high and low areas over New England it looks like around 1.25" averaged over the region.  So that would not worsen the dry conditions or help alleviate them either, kind of status quo.  Much can change but at least some precip chances.  

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2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Upper tier? Damn!

Lots and lots of guidance sources really roasting the last several days of the month...

EPS came in with a sprawling 588 DM ridge that pretty much encompasses everywhere SE of the Dakotas... and even has a 590+ DM surface closed off inside that...  Although, it only has the total anomaly at modest to midland in scale, which I find weird ..I wouldn't have thunk we get 588 dm commonly enough to those latitudes to only drive a mid scaled SD but it is what it is..

Meanwhile, the operational Euro is really destroying ORD 1995 style.  It's got 24 C air at 850 with zippo offset on diabatic heating potential at the end of that run, in the midst of the EPS signal..  Some of the lesser dependable guidance types ...like that Franken 'NAVGEM' push 26 C through IA toward the southern Lake by 180 hours... And at the time, the operational GFS has periodic SW ejected heat plumes in sequential shreds passing through a huge subtropicl ridge expression of it's own...also, nearing 600 dm in the core!  That's sick... 

This is all starting to remind me of the week of modeling prior to the 2012 heat wave frankly.  That one spared our region... though we were above normal.  But locales over the southern Lakes...like KAZO put up 103,104,104,102 during the 4-day max of that heat wave, and that was cushioned on either side by a couple days in the mid to high 90s. It was ludicrous in Kansas, with 102+/80 type temps over dews were quite common - it actually destroyed cattle/agricultural markets and showed up as a sizeable ding in the GDP if memory serves...  Why 'heat' doesn't get it's own column is crazy in my mind.   

It's an early signal...but its weighty for so early.  Just sayn'  ...and yes, 'top tier' would be apropos looking at those configurations and numbers. We'll see

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I looked at the 10 day GFS and Euro forecasted precip for New England.  Averaging them and smoothing high and low areas over New England it looks like around 1.25" averaged over the region.  So that would not worsen the dry conditions or help alleviate them either, kind of status quo.  Much can change but at least some precip chances.  

There was 0.80" here on Monday. All is lush green.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Cold again last night.  All mountain valley ASOS well into the 30s.

I woke up freezing and slamming windows shut at 3am...MVL got down to 36F.

SLK might have hit 32F, as they were 33F for a few hours.

This has been one of the nicest May/June combos in a long time.

This is just great

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Just now, Hoth said:

I feel like the burnt out lawns primarily belong to people who compulsively mow their grass every other day to keep it looking manicured. Leave it for a week to ten days between trimmings and it stays green a lot longer. 

Been 2+ weeks since I mowed mine.

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16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I feel like the burnt out lawns primarily belong to people who compulsively mow their grass every other day to keep it looking manicured. Leave it for a week to ten days between trimmings and it stays green a lot longer. 

My neighbor grows a lot of crabgrass every year because they keep their lawn constantly about a 1/2" tall. The mother and one of their children have lyme so they do it out of tick paranoia, but man, their lawn takes a beating. It makes our 3-4" lawn look overgrown though so my sig other is always freaking out about it needing to be mowed. It's hard to convince her that it's better to let it grow out a bit.

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