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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

MHT with 89/43 for only 20% RH... maybe they can tickle down into the 10s for RH? 

So very dry heat... New England doesn't do 85-90 with RH of 20-30% very often.

Really? I don’t feel like it’s that rare around here.

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I'm 88/55.   Trying to figure out why my dp is so high.  Then realized the lawn got 2 hours of water this AM.  That would probably do it.  Also I just noticed SPC has much of N/CNE in slight for tomorrow.  Don't know if that was an upgrade this afternoon or was already in place earlier...

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Really? I don’t feel like it’s that rare around here.

Maybe its not that rare, but usually 30s for RH in dry heat is what I feel we see in summer.  I guess you're right and it's not mid-summer.  This feels more like a bookend season torch where it's just bone dry like a May or Sept torch.

There are a lot of stations though getting into the 20s for RH, I guess it's not much different than Red Flag conditions minus the wind.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Forecast I believe was 86F, so not far off.  Any southerly winds tomorrow will kill shot at mid/upper 90s.  Low 90s at best 

May be a moot venture/test anyway..

The 12z Euro just cheese-graded the top 1.5 C off the 850 mb temps after like 12 cycles of consistently indicating 21.5 C. Despite the still indicated west wind, under 70+% sun... that last minute Judas is not a correction in support of higher numbers..  We'll see -

But as far as today goes, the NAM MOS (fwiw) was inadequate at intermediate locations such as BED.  Seemed to do okay right near the coast though, where feeble onshore flag-wobblers cut warming early.  ..it may have punched that influence too far inland in the MOS...interesting.

Anyway, looking up stream at our air mass sourcing... it's 93/70 pretty much everywhere across southern lower Michigan, N. OH/IN... if folks wanna use that as any indicator.

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55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May be a moot venture/test anyway..

The 12z Euro just cheese-graded the top 1.5 C off the 850 mb temps after like 12 cycles of consistently indicating 21.5 C. Despite the still indicated west wind, under 70+% sun... that last minute Judas is not a correction in support of higher numbers..  We'll see -

But as far as today goes, the NAM MOS (fwiw) was inadequate at intermediate locations such as BED.  Seemed to do okay right near the coast though, where feeble onshore flag-wobblers cut warming early.  ..it may have punched that influence too far inland in the MOS...interesting.

Anyway, looking up stream at our air mass sourcing... it's 93/70 pretty much everywhere across southern lower Michigan, N. OH/IN... if folks wanna use that as any indicator.

Winds look more southerly here tomorrow do doubt we get much above 91-92f

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10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Holocaust ........ c'mon, be sensitive! 

 

That said, wha'chu mean? 

Sarcasm huh -

But 18z run yesterday had like four days of 100 + wx across southern and SE Canada up under a historic ridge... along with a synoptic evolution that suggests that was dimmed, too - as in...probably everywhere if the latter succeeded, and even hotter.  594 to 600 dm heights pervade almost the entire country S of the 55th parallel, with 850s 21 to 26F as far N as almost the southern tip of JB...  absurdly looking ... ultimately... unlikely.  

Not saying something like that can't happen - just that given the time range ...less plausible.  And  thusly ... 00z and 06z look nothing like that of course -

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