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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

imo, 2-3 weeks sooner and the mid-week deal could have been flakes for some :weenie:

instead mid 40s and misery 

18z GFS has some dynamic cooling Tue afternoon over the deep interior, gets H85 below 0C, and knows 2m temps out there into the low 40s during peak heating. Move that near Mitch and maybe he seems some flakes?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My gut is most of the heavy stuff is down towards the MA next week, but does look cool with maybe a couple of periods of rain at some point. I don’t buy the euro from yesterday or the gfs.

Yup. Congrats DC to Philly while we rot with clouds , 50’s and dry under hydrangeas with .03 of drizzle . At least by Wed/ Thursday it’s nicer again

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Congrats DC to Philly while we rot with clouds , 50’s and dry under hydrangeas with .03 of drizzle . At least by Wed/ Thursday it’s nicer again

Blue balled by rain this whole time and last couple of weeks. Would be nice to not have a summer drought for the 4th year.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's good that those above (whomever that may be ...) mentioned discarding the Euro and GFS from yesterday.  I mean ... for obvious reasons aside related to climo and just the general degree in absurdities of those runs' details...  since then, the last three cycles of the GFS have decidedly and clearly filled the lead trough in the dual nature of those shinanegans early next week. 

What was happening prior was either a, an analog for, or b, actually winter  :axe:   

Kind of bullshchitty looking. This has been going on since March really. It's this general cinema in the hemisphere portrayed by the models ... selling us something other than summer.  Not sure what's going but they are all doing it so it's not like a bias endemic to this two month era and any particular modeling behavior.  Something's going on everywhere that is just weird - yet .. .we are above normal ;)

But that's all a different discussion -

Be that as it may, a trough is seemingly vastly more likely to me than any of the 'extremeness' of it. Yesterday I was rolling my eyes with Mt Manadnock noodles and pellets mixed in ...and the Euro tried this on a cycle or two prior to those as well.  

So the 0Z Euro arrived much more like seasonably obnoxious as opposed to wondering if we're under-the-radar with a whiplash climate holocaust.  Christ... Give it up will ya'!  Both it and the GFS are trying to weaken that lead impulse that formulated the first of two coastal systems, which (particularly in the Euro), keeps it's coastal cyclone farther S now ... enough so to even miss a good chunk of the region.  Then, it brings the residual mid level closure down anemically ... which is probably all told vastly more climate friendly anyway.  I don't typically like the climate argument because it's too reliant at times, and tries to close the door on extremes/anomalies; which we all know, still do actually happen from time to time.  So cannot discount snow in June entirely, just that to say that without an antecedent super volcano (and Hawaii doesn't count) leaves that taste in one's month of fresh vomit.    

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's good that those above (whomever that may be ...) mentioned discarding the Euro and GFS from yesterday.  I mean ... for obvious reasons aside related to climo and just the general degree in absurdities of those runs' details...  since then, the last three cycles of the GFS have decidedly and clearly filled the lead trough in the dual nature of those shinanegans early next week. 

What was happening prior was either a, an analog for, or b, actually winter  :axe:   

Kind of bullshchitty looking. This has been going on since March really. It's this general cinema in the hemisphere portrayed by the models ... selling us something other than summer.  Not sure what's going but they are all doing it so it's not like a bias endemic to this two month era and any particular modeling behavior.  Something's going on everywhere that is just weird - yet .. .we are above normal ;)

But that's all a different discussion -

Be that as it may, a trough is seemingly vastly more likely to me than any of the 'extremeness' of it. Yesterday I was rolling my eyes with Mt Manadnock noodles and pellets mixed in ...and the Euro tried this on a cycle or two prior to those as well.  

So the 0Z Euro arrived much more like seasonably obnoxious as opposed to wondering if we're under-the-radar with a whiplash climate holocaust.  Christ... Give it up will ya'!  Both it and the GFS are trying to weaken that lead impulse that formulated the first of two coastal systems, which (particularly in the Euro), keeps it's coastal cyclone farther S now ... enough so to even miss a good chunk of the region.  Then, it brings the residual mid level closure down anemically ... which is probably all told vastly more climate friendly anyway.  I don't typically like the climate argument because it's too reliant at times, and tries to close the door on extremes/anomalies; which we all know, still do actually happen from time to time.  So cannot discount snow in June entirely, just that to say that without an antecedent super volcano (and Hawaii doesn't count) leaves that taste in one's month of fresh vomit.    

 

June 2006 had a nasty coastal with 3-5” of rain. But as is usually the case with warm season storms, needed to have the low close by to maximize low level forcing since the lack of baroclinicty means weak advection processes and no widespread precip shield. Still could be a good drink, but I would sell the multiple inches  of rain some guidance has shown.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

June 2006 had a nasty coastal with 3-5” of rain. But as is usually the case with warm season storms, needed to have the low close by to maximize low level forcing since the lack of baroclinicty means weak advection processes and no widespread precip shield. Still could be a good drink, but I would sell the multiple inches  of rain some guidance has shown.

Agreed ... But, I'm also willing to sell on the general complexion of schit on the whole period of time - the depth and scale of anomaly of the whole thing - 

I mean we're not getting out of it.  It's a schit stint, period, but are we waste deep or side-stepping lawn mines. ha!

There is a kind of virtual climate?  'climate of modeling,' and how their respective/collection of bias behaviors relative to season.  At this time of year, not atypical that the models over-sell the 'schit' complexions of middle and extended ranges.  They do still happen...like you say, needing something more perfectly circumstantial to really get it done.  this could be one of those times...sure, but, since this schit-stint was a mid-range emergence ...it makes me wonder if it was just another over-sell and we get something more seasonably putrid out of it.  

I could see it ending up mostly cloud on that first low with temps around 60... and then we get some instability convection as the trailing cold pool meanders over head later on...  something like that  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ... But, I'm also willing to sell on the general complexion of schit on the whole period of time - the depth and scale of anomaly of the whole thing - 

I mean we're not getting out of it.  It's a schit stint, period.

There is a kind of virtual climate?  'climate of modeling,' and how their respective/collection of bias behaviors relative to season.  At this time of year, not atypical that the models over-sell the 'schit' complexions of middle and extended ranges.  They do still happen...like you say, needing something more perfectly circumstantial to really get it done.  this could be one of those times...sure, but, since this schit-stint was a mid-range emergence ...it makes we wonder if it was just another over-sell and we get something more seasonably putrid out of it.  

I could see it ending up mostly cloud on that first low with temps around 60... and then we get some instability convection as the trailing cold pool meanders over head later on...  something like that  

Oh I agree.  That does happen. The overall look does support somewhat of a crappy look..but hopefully not days and days as some guidance has hinted.  The ridging in nrn Canada and then rebuilding out west probably aid in that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In fact the May/June combo at the local coop in Hingham was about 28.5"!! Wow. That has to be close to, if not the wettest two month combo there. 

Newburyport 29.5". That's as extreme as you will ever see around here. What a time for Ginxy.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Anyway...tongue-in-cheek humor aside,  I am noticing the mid level mechanics relaying off the Pacific are coming in weaker than the previous models runs had structured.  

Not hugely so...but enough. 

That is transitive as a weaker total forcing over the OV-MA/NE regions over Monday/early Tues...and the as mentioned, the Euro has actually corrected it's coastal low track ... Less mechanical forcing and said low is not captured and tucked into L.I. like before.. Instead, it meanders more E and is broader and less deep.  The GFS is evolving the weaker mid levels too, but interestingly.. it doesn't allow that fact to attenuate it's beedy-eyed obsessively deep coastal storm.  I suspect "if" it continues it will have to concede - EDIT... shoot.. Actually the GFS was just different more so than "weaker" ...that's probably why it still has the mechanics for the deeper low... interesting.

The NAM is either comically or coup de etat in going the other direction of course - 

we'll see.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Hey Scott... was 2006 did that what was summer like after that?  

May 2005 was of course the greatest and most severe cosmic dildo month of all time, exceeding in scale and degree in violation and insult of any natural event in Terran history ... But, that 20 or so days of Turkish imprisonment ended with torridity in the first week of June... The rest of the summer was sort of tepid and non-unusual if memory serves.  Not sure about 2006 tho - 

What I'm wondering is ... like we get cold pops and virga snow in the air in Octobers some years and.. immediately there is a flurry of hackneyed statistical-related posts informing us we're doomed for a good winter as though "because" that happened (oy..).   I am wondering if there is any kind of reasonable correlation to summer temperature trends post Spring butt-bangin'

Sorry... I'm frustrated and steeped in snark for this spring for some reason.  Seriously, we had a coastal with winds gusting to 40 mph in early June of 2001 (maybe it 2000?), and I recall that summer never seemed to recover.  The same trough that produced said coastal locked in for much of the time.  In 2007 and 2008 we had back to back years where we had more of a superb mid-level lapse rate pool that kept us getting instability severe pulsers you could set your watch too..  I'm just wondering if there's any leading correlators to these.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Scott... was 2006 did that what was summer like after that?  

May 2005 was of course the greatest and most severe cosmic dildo month of all time, exceeding in scale and degree in violation and insult of any natural event in Terran history ... But, that 20 or so days of Turkish imprisonment ended with torridity in the first week of June... The rest of the summer was sort of tepid and non-unusual if memory serves.  Not sure about 2006 tho - 

What I'm wondering is ... like we get cold pops and virga snow in the air in Octobers some years and.. immediately there is a flurry of hackneyed statistical-related posts informing us we're doomed for a good winter as though "because" that happened (oy..).   I am wondering if there is any kind of reasonable correlation to summer temperature trends post Spring butt-bangin'

Sorry... I'm frustrated and steeped in snark for this spring for some reason.  Seriously, we had a coastal with winds gusting to 40 mph in early June of 2001 (maybe it 2000?), and I recall that summer never seemed to recover.  The same trough that produced said coastal locked in for much of the time.  In 2007 and 2008 we had back to back years where we had more of a superb mid-level lapse rate pool that kept us getting instability severe pulsers you could set your watch too..  I'm just wondering if there's any leading correlators to these.

06 was my first summer up here and I don't remember anything exceptional. Varying warmth and cool shots. The only thing that is etched in my mind is the torched autumn right through the beginning of Jan.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

06 was my first summer up here and I don't remember anything exceptional. Varying warmth and cool shots. The only thing that is etched in my mind is the torched autumn right through the beginning of Jan.

I remember that autumn...  strange - torch understates what that was doing through at least the first half ...10 days or so of January 2007.  I was uncomfortably warm going on run many afternoons in that stretch do to heat.

I recall that "stormchaserchuck" (I think it was..) put out some seasonal forecast that argued winter would never happen again - ... haha.  Seriously though, he took some unnecessary flack (I thought..) because the -AO finally rotated cold delivery around to our side of the hemisphere, ...effectively ending one of the warmest autumn/early winters (I wonder what that three month actually statistically ranks).  Anyway, the hammer kinda came down and we did get some cold and storms over the conus in February, but the kid was downright prodigal prior to that happening ...  

That was back in Eastern's days...  man, ... time -

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Newburyport 29.5". That's as extreme as you will ever see around here. What a time for Ginxy.

I thought the hardest hit areas in that were North Shore but was surprised at the Hingham total being so high.

I thought some of those North Shore towns like Ipswich, Danvers, Beverly,  had like 18-20" in a month.

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