cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Over 5400J/Kg Cape on the ILX sounding this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 On 6/14/2018 at 10:03 AM, Chicago Storm said: Records for Chicago Sat-Mon... Sat: 98/76 Sun: 96/77 Mon: 98/77 Sunday probably has the best chance at breaking any records. Saturday could have issues with convective debris, as could Monday. I would go 93, 97, 95 for the period. Gonna change this to 93, 95, 94. Guidance has come in with slightly cooler UL temps the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Gonna change this to 93, 95, 94. Guidance has come in with slightly cooler UL temps the past few days. I'd probably take 1-2 off of what I went with as well. DVN and ILX both came in with 850 mb temps of 19-20C on tonight's soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 f here we go some storm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Wisconsin MCS looks like it will try to dive southeast into NE. Illinois. Looks likely that it will have little affect on tomorrows temps, given it will be out of the area prior to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Wisconsin MCS looks like it will try to dive southeast into NE. Illinois. Looks likely that it will have little affect on tomorrows temps, given it will be out of the area prior to 12z. If the effective warm front sags that far south, how quickly will it shift back north? I'm guessing pretty quickly for Chicago purposes, but I could see it taking awhile for MKE, which I'm fine with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: If the effective warm front sags that far south, how quickly will it shift back north? I'm guessing pretty quickly for Chicago purposes, but I could see it taking awhile for MKE, which I'm fine with. It'll be fairly rapid, and early as well. The backside of the MCS is already approaching I-39 and it's not even midnight yet, with no redevelopment west expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 HRRRx gets MLI to 97 tomorrow. My previous call for 96 seems pretty okay. I'm a bit worried about my 98 for both Sun and Mon, but will continue to ride for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It'll be fairly rapid, and early as well. The backside of the MCS is already approaching I-39 and it's not even midnight yet, with no redevelopment west expected. It is outpacing the most recent runs of the CAMs as well, which makes me wonder how far south the outflow ultimately ends up (maybe farther south than progged). If this were coming through 6 hours later, maybe a different story entirely as far as impacting highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Yeah I'd much rather be sleeping now with these weaker storms waking me up around 3 or 4 am so we could cheat a few more hrs of lake breeze. To be honest I didn't expect much of anything tonight so wtf do I know. I just sorta assumed we'd be milwaukee'd and any 'exciting' stuff finds a way to meh its way to the lake at best. Tonight's initiated pretty close to us compared to the more typical Western Wisconsin decaying MCS in to the lake-shore. Its gonna be smoking no doubt.. Lets just get it on if we have to tangle. Nice that it's not sticking around for too long up here. I'm sure the heat will show its face enough this summer just plz don't over stay your welcome. We really could stand a good summer for as much of the landscape as mother nature will provide. Drought and excess heat really are the pits and there is enough ugly going down out there now. I was happy to see a nice chunk of areas cash in on some welcomed rain #BEBESTSUMMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: 82/80 PNT, 82/78 TIP, 83/78 AAA last hour. We briefly hit 89/79 around the 00z balloon launch at AAA. Next three days will have some pretty significant heat impacts across central Illinois. Springfield today briefly hit a 105F heat index, which was much higher than guidance. ECM and its' MOS have 97/97/95 with dews near 70. Fully believe that moisture is still a little underdone given that most corn around the area is well ahead of schedule. Looks fairly unlikely that anywhere in the region will hit 100 this heatwave, but it's still only mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Cool little MCS.. its taking its time exiting. Should be some nice rain totals and the light show has been frequent and close hits to make me head to the living room instead of glued to my desk in front of the windows. It kicked up nice pre-MCS and you just knew something was brewing but it arrived with some gusty 30/35 mph winds and once that slowly blew through the winds have behaved. Very enjoyable stuff. Been a bit since I've had this. She's sinking out of here to the border now. Maybe that stuff to the west and north some can dilly dally around for another 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: We briefly hit 89/79 around the 00z balloon launch at AAA. Next three days will have some pretty significant heat impacts across central Illinois. Springfield today briefly hit a 105F heat index, which was much higher than guidance. ECM and its' MOS have 97/97/95 with dews near 70. Fully believe that moisture is still a little underdone given that most corn around the area is well ahead of schedule. Looks fairly unlikely that anywhere in the region will hit 100 this heatwave, but it's still only mid June. You work at ILX now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You work at ILX now? Yeah, as a Pathways intern this summer and the year after. Then a location TBD - hopefully one without 80F dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 The storms that will impact northeast IL later tonight will be long gone by tomorrow, but the soaking may take a degree or two off the potential high temp for tomorrow. Dews will likely be a touch higher though, so the heat index would make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 You won't want to be standing under the bank clock in chicago tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 Madison getting hit pretty good WIC025-160815- /O.CON.KMKX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180616T0815Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dane WI- 109 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DANE COUNTY... At 102 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the warned area. Two to four inches of rain have already fallen across most of the Madison metro area, with the highest amounts in the south central and southwest parts of the metro area. Flash flooding is ongoing! At 1258 AM CDT, a public report of lots of road flooding on side streets, stranded cars, and accidents on the Beltline. Please stay off of the roads in the Madison metro area if at all possible! Rainfall rates this heavy in an urban area like Madison will continue to cause flash flooding, especially in low lying areas with runoff. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Waunakee, Verona, McFarland, Monona, Mount Horeb, Windsor, Marshall, Cottage Grove, Cross Plains, Deerfield, Mazomanie, Shorewood Hills, Cambridge, Black Earth, Maple Bluff and Blue Mounds. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in one hour in the warned area, which covers the Madison metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 One last little blowup over the city to stat pad the qpf a touch and it looks to wind down pretty fast. Rotisserie Roaster tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 The HRRR is trying to bring a secondary outflow boundary through in the morning. Low confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 I have my eye to west central wisco before bed to see if anything can maybe sustain a trip to the SE and add in a little early AM distraction to HHH. I wouldn't mind a cooler first half of the day to get some chores and running around done in the AM before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Rain don't want to give up imby but nothing crazy in the qpf department, id say it has to be over an inch - maybe 2 when all said and done? Madison sounds legit in areas. AT 126 AM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MADISON METRO AREA. NUMEROUS VEHICLES ARE STRANDED. WATER IS ENTERING THE LOWER LEVELS OF HOUSES AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THE FIRE DEPARTMENT IS PERFORMING WATER RESCUES. TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE MADISON METRO AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 10/10 chore morning or any AM for that matter. 64/61 out there.. Get away from the lake and it's pushing 80's/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: The HRRR is trying to bring a secondary outflow boundary through in the morning. Low confidence That and the possibility for afternoon pop-up storms are two concerns that may prevent max heating potential. Sun and Mon have no real concerns and should be fine still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Actually, that lake enhanced OFB is currently rapidly pushing inland across NE. Illinois. Definitely a big concern regarding temps today now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Actually, that lake enhanced OFB is currently rapidly pushing inland across NE. Illinois. Definitely a big concern regarding temps today now. Yeah, fly in the ointment. It looks less well defined south of the city. Actually it still looks like it's just offshore once you get into Indiana. Not by much though per the obs at offshore sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 Kind of an unfortunate situation for LOT. After getting through the overnight storms, today was well on the way to being day 1 of realizing the special heat warning criteria (3 days with heat index of 100-105) for Cook county (specifically Chicago) until the second boundary made an appearance. This should be enough to prevent today from being able to realize 100+ heat indices there. But with the warning already having been issued and considering what Sun/Mon looking like, you can't really pull the plug at this point from a public messaging standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Watching from afar, the real interesting one as far as thee heat will be Minneapolis. NWS grids still show highs in the low/mid 90s, yet as we enter peak heating, light rain showers / drizzle continue with temps in the low 70s. I've seen impressive temp recoveries, but one like that would be beyond amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 ORD peaked at 89 prior to the lake enhanced OFB moving trough. It’s down to 81 now. looks like any chance of 90 is DOA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2018 Author Share Posted June 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD peaked at 89 prior to the lake enhanced OFB moving trough. It’s down to 81 now. looks like any chance of 90 is DOA now. Back up to 84. Start the rally. Tricky to say just how much of a recovery there will be. My gut feeling would side with your thoughts, but models aren't handling the progression of the boundary very well. The ones that have a boundary didn't bring it through ORD until later afternoon, which would have obviously been more detrimental to post frontal temperature recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 OFB pushing south of U.S, 30 in current radar across northern IN. Unexpected, but might be enough to trigger some storms later today. 20% chance per IND. 90/71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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