June 2018 General Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

Cyclone is getting hit again early this morning, this time with a warning for strong wind.  Training storms have dropped as much as 6 inches of rain near Clinton.

Meanwhile, it's day four of the stormy pattern and there has still been no rain here in Cedar Rapids.  The CAMs are suggesting this evening will be our best shot so far as the Nebraska MCS refires over northeast Iowa and then dives south across much of eastern Iowa.

[zinski1990]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That hour+ sunset difference is partly due to latitude but more because of being on the edge of the eastern time zone.  Similar thing when I was in LAF... sunsets were near 9:30 in mid/late June.

Yep. Here in indy the latest sunset is 9:17 from after June 21st til around fourth of July. I remember where I'm originally from in Marquette mi up of Michigan it's still eastern time there and latest sunset is 9:47 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Got woke up by a close boomer around 0500, and got a lot of heavy rain. Nearly 2.25” this morning 

[hawkeye_wx]

DVN issued an odd flash flood warning for the Cedar Rapids metro area this morning.  First, it hadn't rained since May, so the ground is very dry.  Second, they issued the warning when nobody had received more than a half inch of rain.  The line was moving, too, so the highest totals were only 1-1.6".  It never had the look of a flash flood event.

I got enough rain to fill the rain barrel, but that's all.  We still need a couple inches just to get back to average.  The upgraded HRRR continues to predict an MCS will dive southeast across eastern Iowa and potentially have a training tail back around here.  I hope it works out.

[osubrett2]

13 hours ago, weatherbo said:

After teasing warmth in May, June has started the exact opposite.  Mqt is running -6.1 for the month and it isn't much different here.  My average high to date has been 59 and the low 41. Coldest night so far was 36, two nights ago, and the warmest day until today was 64.

On a scale of 1-10 this season, the bugs are a 3 which really, really good compared to last year! The sun is rising here at 5:57... the earliest it will and is setting at 9:42, peaking later at 9:49 before the shorter days begin.  Summer nights are the best... unless it's a winter night.

 

...And of course like every year, my 'maters are growing leggy, reaching through the dense north woods forest for every bit of sun they can soak in.

 

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, that's crazy how cool it's been.  I also didn't realize how late the sun stays out up there.  That's over an hour later than our sunset.

Getting another great light show at the moment.  Some non-severe storms have popped up to the west and southwest.  If they hold together we could get a few good downpours shortly.

 

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That hour+ sunset difference is partly due to latitude but more because of being on the edge of the eastern time zone.  Similar thing when I was in LAF... sunsets were near 9:30 in mid/late June.

I visited family in the UP last summer, late June and early July, and it’s a surreal feeling watching those late sunsets over Lake Superior. They are in the Keweenaw (Calumet, Ahmeek, Copper City) so it’s the extreme western edge of the Eastern Time Zone and the sunset was 9:54 or 9:55. There was plenty of twilight until 11pm too, so much so that local 4th of July fireworks didn’t start until 11pm. 

Caught this sunset off the Bumbletown hill and the time stamp is 9:55pm.

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.64" early this morning with some great lightning again.  The high-amp positive strikes immediately behind the line were fun to watch on the way in to work.  The 2-day total is up to 1.76" so the grass should green right back up.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.64" early this morning with some great lightning again.  The high-amp positive strikes immediately behind the line were fun to watch on the way in to work.  The 2-day total is up to 1.76" so the grass should green right back up.

Miss those lightning shows. Occasional IC just doesn't cut it around here. 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Miss those lightning shows. Occasional IC just doesn't cut it around here. 

Those monster nor'easters up there definitely help to make up for it though. 

[IWXwx]

Figured that I'd post this over here after originally putting in the Winter Complaint thread. If Cyclone's point-n-click is accurate, this is what Erie will soon look like (this is from Cass Co. MI this afternoon):

 

[weatherbo]

6 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

 

 

I visited family in the UP last summer, late June and early July, and it’s a surreal feeling watching those late sunsets over Lake Superior. They are in the Keweenaw (Calumet, Ahmeek, Copper City) so it’s the extreme western edge of the Eastern Time Zone and the sunset was 9:54 or 9:55. There was plenty of twilight until 11pm too, so much so that local 4th of July fireworks didn’t start until 11pm. 

Caught this sunset off the Bumbletown hill and the time stamp is 9:55pm.

 

Great pic!   I do love the long summer evenings...there's still a bit of light visible in the north sky until around 11:15 or so.  Hope you had a chance to view the sky at night.  The stars are amazing up here.  Add to that the frequency of the N lights and it's like a fairytale sometimes.

[weatherbo]

22 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Figured that I'd post this over here after originally putting in the Winter Complaint thread. If Cyclone's point-n-click is accurate, this is what Erie will soon look like (this is from Cass Co. MI this afternoon):

 

Holy sh*t!

[Stebo]

Wow at that flooding rain.

[cyclone77]

Picked up another 0.27" in less than 10 mins as that WAA wing line of storms went through.  Now awaiting the main line.  

[Chinook]

Cyclone - how much rain have you gotten since yesterday (6/8) ?

[cyclone77]

5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Cyclone - how much rain have you gotten since yesterday (6/8) ?

2.03", but more storms about to arrive.

[hawkeye_wx]

About 2.25" tonight, 2.50" for the day, so my 2018 luck finally shifted.

[IWXwx]

8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

About 2.25" tonight, 2.50" for the day, so my 2018 luck finally shifted.

Feast or famine

[cyclone77]

0.46" overnight as the main line was pretty underwhelming.  We narrowly escaped the torrential rains that many areas around here got the past few days, but 2.49" for the 3-day total is pretty good.  

[Hoosier]

My 3 day total is a bit under 1".  Not really doing well in any particular round but it's adding up.

[Hoosier]

Models still advertising tropical development in the extended with a possible Texas landfall.  The GFS/Canadian at least.  The Euro has been consistent in not really showing anything so we'll see what happens.  In either scenario, the ridge builds in but it would probably be enhanced some if the tropical development occurs. 

[IWXwx]

1.85" here so far with three different rounds: 1.08" early Sat. morning, 0.48" in 15 minutes early afternoon yesterday, and 0.28" this morning.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3.95” for the last 3 days. Solid. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

Had 1.33” in my location from the MCS last night. I must’ve underestimated the winds in my location, as I had some shingles blown off of my roof which has never happened before. 

[IWXwx]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models still advertising tropical development in the extended with a possible Texas landfall.  The GFS/Canadian at least.  The Euro has been consistent in not really showing anything so we'll see what happens.  In either scenario, the ridge builds in but it would probably be enhanced some if the tropical development occurs. 

I would normally put my money on ECMWF, but the pattern seems to be pointing toward the North American models. Also, didn't the GFS sniff out Alberto ahead of the other models?

[Hoosier]

I don't think this is entirely accurate everywhere but general idea...

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I would normally put my money on ECMWF, but the pattern seems to be pointing toward the North American models. Also, didn't the GFS sniff out Alberto ahead of the other models?

I honestly don't remember about Alberto. I know the GFS has been tropical happy at times in recent years.  Not sure if that's still the case.  There have been some instances of the Euro not picking up on development but whether this is one of those times?

[IWXwx]

On 6/2/2018 at 8:52 AM, IWXwx said:

The models continue to pump up the heights later in the week.

 

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think this is entirely accurate everywhere but general idea...

 

I think I nailed it.

 

[snowlover2]

28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I would normally put my money on ECMWF, but the pattern seems to be pointing toward the North American models. Also, didn't the GFS sniff out Alberto ahead of the other models?

Yes GFS had Alberto being possible around the 300 hours out area. 

[Chinook]

The GFS in the past few days has been overdoing dew points for tomorrow-- on one run of the GFS, dew points of 80 were up to Minnesota. Still, todays 12z 3-km NAM has a dew point of 65 at Davenport tomorrow afternoon, while the GFS has 73. In any case, it seems reasonable to expect 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the cold front tomorrow.

[cyclone77]

Next weekend looking pretty toasty.  GFS not quite as hot as the Euro, and doesn't last quite as long.  If the Euro is correct we could have a couple shots at 100 degrees in the DVN cwa Sun/Mon.  Mid 20s at 850 knife in on Sunday.  May be a little tougher to get as hot as the late May episode, as the crops are much more mature, and the recent heavy rains have soaked the landscape.  Something to keep an eye on anyway.