Chambana Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Got 89’d yesterday. 9:45AM currently 83/76/94. It’s gonna be a scorcher today. Should climb into the mid 90s with heat index peaking around 110-113 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Across much of lower MI, the SPC mesoanalysis is showing... *4500 to 5000 J/KG of SBCAPE *1300 to 1400 of DCAPE *LIs of -10 to -12 *Mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/KM ...and it's only mid/late morning. That has to be close to record levels of instability. And if any activity did manage to break through the cap and tap into that energy, oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 ORD did indeed only have a low of 80 last night/this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: The heat wave coming up is 1 in 20 year type stuff according to BUF NWS. A week straight of mid 90s in Buffalo is something I've never seen in my lifetime. We have the potential to hit 100 for the first time in history tomorrow. I don't think it's 1 in 20 year type stuff in this area but obviously for upstate New York extreme heat is less common. As seen by the fact that Buffalo has never officially hit 100ﾟ. But forecast for buffalo is 94. Triple digit heat seems unlikely thanks to the tropical humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, Powerball said: Across much of lower MI, the SPC mesoabalysis is showing... *4500 to 5000 J/KG of SBCAPE *1300 to 1400 of DCAPE *LIs of -10 to -12 *Mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/KM ...and it's only mid/late morning. That has to be close to record levels of instability. And if any activity did manage to break through the cap and tap into that energy, oh boy... It's true that the 8-9 C/km lapse rates are quite rare for the Great Lakes and Northeast. Of course this makes a huge difference on the CAPE value. You may be right. As of 00z, we will be able to compare the CAPE at the DTX sounding today with previous records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 There are tornado warnings currently in central Ontario, one of the polygons is hilariously huge (most of it being in a area of rainfall without a core). The first tornado warning came out at 5:37 am: I've never seen one in the middle of the night like that (in Canada, closest was June 2010 Lemmington ON F1 at 1:30 am IIRC) however I seriously doubt anything happened. For some unknown reason EC dropped the heat warnings for eastern Ontario like Ottawa . How many hours til those are brought back? EDIT: It was just mere minutes till the heat warnings were put back for eastern Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I don't think it's 1 in 20 year type stuff in this area but obviously for upstate New York extreme heat is less common. As seen by the fact that Buffalo has never officially hit 100ﾟ. But forecast for buffalo is 94. Triple digit heat seems unlikely thanks to the tropical humidity. ...Dangerously High Apparent Temperatures Likely This Weekend... Record heat in the 90s will combine with dew points in the 70s to produce very uncomfortable...and potentially dangerous...apparent temperatures through at LEAST this weekend...as an anomalously strong sub tropical ridge will dominate the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. The heart of this impressive ridge will be over the Ohio Valley as we open this period Friday night...then as we advance through the holiday weekend...it will drift to the east across Pennsylvania. Putting the strength of the ridge into perspective...the +2 to 3 STD feature has a late June return interval of 5 to 10 years with its corresponding heat (H7/85 temps) having a climatological recurrence of 10-20 years. This is the forecast for around Buffalo: Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 105. Southwest wind 14 to 18 mph. Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 74. South wind 7 to 13 mph. Sunday Sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 108. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 74. South wind around 6 mph. Monday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Tuesday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Independence Day Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Thursday Sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 71. Friday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD did indeed only have a low of 80 last night/this morning. Interestingly, MDW managed to dip to 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 Will be interesting to see if BUF can tag 100. I'd imagine there's even less room for error at a place like that considering how the lake is positioned... like if the wind is more like WSW than SW then it would come over more of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Will be interesting to see if BUF can tag 100. I'd imagine there's even less room for error at a place like that considering how the lake is positioned... like if the wind is more like WSW than SW then it would come over more of the water. Yeah the SW wind tomorrow is going to be what prevents it I think. We need a SSW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah the SW wind tomorrow is going to be what prevents it I think. We need a SSW wind. How many miles inland is BUF? That may matter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Interestingly, MDW managed to dip to 79. Yea, ended up being the opposite of what I thought. We’ll see if that 80 holds at ORD through midnight, and some guidance bring in weakening convection and/or outflow at some point tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How many miles inland is BUF? That may matter too. Around 12 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 Def seems like more clouds around locally today compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Yea, ended up being the opposite of what I thought. We’ll see if that 80 holds at ORD through midnight, and some guidance bring in weakening convection and/or outflow at some point tonight. Doubt it would arrive in time even if it does move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 91/80/111 and it’s not even noon yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 ORD has been 80+ for 27 consecutive hours. There was a 44 hour streak on July 22-24, 2012 (just using hourly obs). Would have to continue through 5 am tomorrow to match that one, which looks very iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: ORD has been 80+ for 27 consecutive hours. There was a 44 hour streak on July 22-24, 2012 (just using hourly obs). Would have to continue through 5 am tomorrow to match that one, which looks very iffy. I wonder what the longest streak is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I wonder what the longest streak is. July 1916. There were 5 straight days with lows of 80+ (next longest streak is 3 days) so you can imagine how many hours that streak lasted. The observation site was on Dearborn back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: July 1916. There were 5 straight days with lows of 80+ (next longest streak is 3 days) so you can imagine how many hours that streak lasted. The observation site was on Dearborn back then. I'd imagine that will be something very hard to ever top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 I have been reading some newspaper articles from some of the heatwaves of yesteryear. Some of them were downright brutal. In years past I was always looking up stuff about the (locally) infamous heatwaves like July 1936, August/Sept 1953, July 1955...and while those are extremely impressive, some of the other ones you dont hear about much are simply because of less gawdy high temp numbers. I got to thinking how stifling and sapping it feels outside today but by numbers it will not jump out in the record books with highs in the mid-90s. So thanks to good old Xmacis, I have been looking up some other heatwaves where we may not have tagged 100F but for 3-6 nights in a row lows were in the 75-80 range, so it was a humid nightmare. Hundreds were dying from heat or drowning. Crazy in the pre-AC days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 ORD is once again featuring the lowest DP in the area again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I have been reading some newspaper articles from some of the heatwaves of yesteryear. Some of them were downright brutal. In years past I was always looking up stuff about the (locally) infamous heatwaves like July 1936, August/Sept 1953, July 1955...and while those are extremely impressive, some of the other ones you dont hear about much are simply because of less gawdy high temp numbers. I got to thinking how stifling and sapping it feels outside today but by numbers it will not jump out in the record books with highs in the mid-90s. So thanks to good old Xmacis, I have been looking up some other heatwaves where we may not have tagged 100F but for 3-6 nights in a row lows were in the 75-80 range, so it was a humid nightmare. Hundreds were dying from heat or drowning. Crazy in the pre-AC days. Anything noteworthy from May-Oct 1911? My local data for that summer appears as if I made all the numbers up in a wild summer fantasy fill-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd imagine that will be something very hard to ever top. Yeah, even 2 consecutive nights of 80+ has happened relatively few times (only twice after the 1930s). Last time that happened was July 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 54 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: Anything noteworthy from May-Oct 1911? My local data for that summer appears as if I made all the numbers up in a wild summer fantasy fill-out. I will have to look and get back with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 DTW only at 92 at 3pm but the dew point is 75. Holy sauna! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW only at 92 at 3pm but the dew point is 75. Holy sauna! What's amazing to me is despite the SSW wind, dews have yet to mix out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW only at 92 at 3pm but the dew point is 75. Holy sauna! BTW, Mt. Clemens is currently 91/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 PNT is 92/83/116. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Kind of an interesting story. I was watching the Rockies vs the Dodgers last night. I looked up some stats on Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers. This young guy was born on the exact same day as the killer heat wave in Chicago- July 13, 1995. According to records that I found, this day was 106 in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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