Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 Well, Rockford has blown past their June rain record and I think they will end up with their wettest month all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Here's the NAM's first run during peak heating on Friday Would point out this is generally several degrees warmer than the GFS. If you just looked at the 850 mb values off the models, you would think widespread 100 degree potential given the vast area of 850 mb temps in the mid 20C. But the issue is that the models don't quite mix that high... it's more like 900-875 mb. It looks like it’s showing a lake breeze for MKE (not the kind of thing I’d trust the 84 hour NAM on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: It looks like it’s showing a lake breeze for MKE (not the kind of thing I’d trust the 84 hour NAM on. I think it might be more the precise synoptic flow than a true lake breeze, but it has a similar effect. Of course SSE vs. due southerly would make a difference right near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: This will be the hottest weather I have seen in 5 years. Not looking forward to it, but I hope it brings some rain. Glad you're staying in the area. This is a really special place to live. I am hoping to god it isn't hot late next week, I don't want to go to the UP and have it be in the 90s. Makes it hard to go sightseeing and hiking. 80s is fine but anything over 90 wouldn't be great. I would end up going to the lakes instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Picked up 0.13" from a shower a short while ago to bring us to 0.14" for the day. One last comfortable day tomorrow before the high humidity moves in Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Well, Rockford has blown past their June rain record and I think they will end up with their wettest month all-time. Indeed... 14.02" for June and counting. The previous wettest month on record was August 2007 with 13.98" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I think it might be more the precise synoptic flow than a true lake breeze, but it has a similar effect. Of course SSE vs. due southerly would make a difference right near the shore. Yeah, you're probably right; just like it did with the warm spell a couple weeks ago, convection/rain on Friday morning may have an effect on temps in places like Chicago and Milwaukee that day. The only slam dunk day in the 90s will probably be Saturday, with a very good chance on Friday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 I picked up 0.46" today. The north side got the most again, with well over an inch in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Not going to last terribly long but it's dumping out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 00z NAM even gets 80 degree dews into Chicago on Friday. The moisture layer is somewhat shallow though (rapid dropoff near/above 850 mb) so because of that and being such an urban area, I'd be skeptical for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 NAM shoves the extreme humidity northeast of here on Friday, which allows temps to push 100. I would bet that dews will stay up a bit more down this way, and the surface temps end up more in the 94-97 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Rockford up to 14.23" for June. That'd be a decent snowfall total in January lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Regarding the upcoming heat around here... The two slam dunk hot days with temps well into the 90's appear to be Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely be the hottest day, with all guidance showing 26C at 850mb nosing into the area by later Friday afternoon. The NAM even has 28C at 850 by Friday evening. At this time there is agreement on mixing to just under 850mb, which would result in mid-upper 90's. Should we mix to those very warm temps at 850mb, 100+ would easily be in the bag. So we'll see how that goes... Beyond Saturday, the pattern get a bit more chaotic. The GFS wants to keep 90's going through late next week, while the ECMWF is a bit cooler. Probably would have precip and lake breeze concerns during that stretch though. NAM for Friday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Regarding the upcoming heat around here... The two slam dunk hot days with temps well into the 90's appear to be Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely be the hottest day, with all guidance showing 26C at 850mb nosing into the area by later Friday afternoon. The NAM even has 28C at 850 by Friday evening. At this time there is agreement on mixing to just under 850mb, which would result in mid-upper 90's. Should we mix to those very warm temps at 850mb, 100+ would easily be in the bag. So we'll see how that goes... Beyond Saturday, the pattern get a bit more chaotic. The GFS wants to keep 90's going through late next week, while the ECMWF is a bit cooler. Probably would have precip and lake breeze concerns during that stretch though. NAM for Friday afternoon... Yeah, gradient slackens next week and some combination of synoptic flow/lake breeze should give lakeside areas some relief. Overall it still looks like a fairly warm pattern after the weekend, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 LOT goes Excessive Heat Watch area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: LOT goes Excessive Heat Watch area wide. So does IWX and GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Relevant part of the LOT disco The models have been consistently pointing to an excessive heat event for Friday and Saturday for the past several days, as has been advertised in previous discussions and messaging. Much of the model guidance has been indicating the potential for mid 90s temperatures with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. If anything, the blended model guidance has had a slightly low bias due to a low bias in GFS temperatures. Dewpoint guidance has been consistently indicating mid 70s dewpoints, and main adjustment has been to adjust dewpoints up over the "corn belt" of the CWA to upper 70s to arnd 80F. Locations generally west of I-55 have had a significant amount of rain over the past few days, which is still covering mainly fields and unpaved surfaces. See little reason for this water to go away any time soon, so, combined with evapotranspiration, dewpoints on the higher side of guidance, or even slightly higher seems reasonable. This would give max temps in the 93-98F range and heat index values in the 105-115F range. So, will go with a Heat Watch for the entire CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 I want the 80 degree dew. If the alternative is a peak of like 78, that is kinda lame. I'd say it's basically a slam dunk in the heart of the corn area. But a more suburban area like mine, gonna be tougher. Then again, the corn fields aren't terribly far upstream and the low level flow will be coming from that area. 2 days until obsessive dewpoint watch, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Heck of a stretch coming that’s for sure. Looking at dews in my neck of the woods they seem to stay around 70° so we should be able to go 6 straight days in the 90s easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Heck of a stretch coming that’s for sure. Looking at dews in my neck of the woods they seem to stay around 70° so we should be able to go 6 straight days in the 90s easily I'm doing my part in pumping up the dews out in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 I have a feeling I may see an 80 dew point in my area even. Here in western Indianapolis. I recall seeing it once before officially at KIND August 3 2010 it hit 80 in the afternoon and evening. I've seen 79 about 5 or 6 times. 2011 I remember was most of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I want the 80 degree dew. If the alternative is a peak of like 78, that is kinda lame. I'd say it's basically a slam dunk in the heart of the corn area. But a more suburban area like mine, gonna be tougher. Then again, the corn fields aren't terribly far upstream and the low level flow will be coming from that area. 2 days until obsessive dewpoint watch, haha 85 or bust here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: 85 or bust here Yeah there's gonna be some ultra high dews. Peru and Pontiac AWOS prob gonna hit 84+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: LOT goes Excessive Heat Watch area wide. The first time in 7 years for IWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 For ORD I'll go 96 on Friday and 97 on Saturday. As Chi Storm mentioned, if Friday can mix even just a little higher than progged, then it could be a bit warmer with 100 not out of the question. The airmass aloft is progged to be cooler on Saturday, so why am I going with that as the warmer day? For one thing, the "cooling" looks modest (is it even real cooling or the models trying to indicate slightly deeper mixing?) and secondly, Saturday should have a significantly warmer start than Friday. I just have a feeling that may allow Saturday's high to at least tie or slightly exceed Friday, but that possibility would be reduced of course if Friday has better mixing. I'll go with a low of 81 on Saturday morning. This setup looks to fit the profile of many of the past 80+ nights with a preceding high at least in the mid/upper 90s, very high dewpoints and winds staying up a bit overnight. I'd give about a 65% chance of the low being 80+. Not ready to make a call on Sunday's low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 DVN has 96 for Fri at MLI, with 110 heat index. Think that's a solid call. 3km NAM has slowed down the axis of highest dews compared to last night's runs. Now holds on to near 80 dews through the afternoon in the eastern cwa. Thinking here in whiteside county we'll get some 81-83 dews for a time Friday afternoon, and possibly early Fri evening. Corn is now about 7-8ft tall, and starting to tassel, so we are at peak evapotranspiration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah there's gonna be some ultra high dews. Peru and Pontiac AWOS prob gonna hit 84+. Be crazy if we saw dews at july 2011 and july 1995 levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 A nightmare NAM run for my buddy in Kankakee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 Enter curveball on the 3 km NAM. Will have to see if this appears on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 MAV has 100 at ORD not on Friday, but on Saturday. Go big or go home I guess. At this point, model temps aloft look a bit too cool to support 100 on Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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